{"id":113763,"date":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/03\/30\/egypt-jordan-iraq-and-lebanon-are-the-most-vulnerable-to-war-shocks-ebrd-warns-2\/"},"modified":"2026-04-15T15:10:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T15:10:58","slug":"egypt-jordan-iraq-and-lebanon-are-the-most-vulnerable-to-war-shocks-ebrd-warns-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/03\/30\/egypt-jordan-iraq-and-lebanon-are-the-most-vulnerable-to-war-shocks-ebrd-warns-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon are the most vulnerable to war shocks, EBRD warns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The war is beginning to filter down to revised-down growth forecasts \u2014 and the damage<\/strong><strong> to GDPs is unlikely to be reversed even if the war had ended yesterday. <\/strong>This was the key takeaway from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development\u2019s (EBRD) regional <a href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1273.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">economic update (pdf)<\/a>, which said EBRD regions \u2014 including those outside MENA \u2014 are looking at a \u201cgrowth forecast \u2026 revised down by up to 0.4 percentage points\u201d if oil prices remain above the USD 100 threshold.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Net energy importers in our region will be the hardest hit from the conflict.<\/strong> Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt \u2014 as well as Iraq, which was the only net energy exporter in the list \u2014 are the most vulnerable, with impacts felt through a combination of surging energy and raw materials prices, disrupted trade, and a debt-servicing burden increasing fiscal pressure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Even with a welcome quick end to the war, gas prices are still expected to remain high<\/strong> \u201cas European and Asian buyers scramble to refill storage while LNG production takes weeks to restart,\u201d according to the report. A lot also depends on how damaged energy infrastructure in the region is when the war ends and how long it takes to first repair and then restart operations \u2014 a particularly lengthy process for LNG facilities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The extent of the impact will be determined by an \u201cindividual economy\u2019s ability to<\/strong> <strong>cushion the terms-of-trade shocks based on their existing fiscal and external buffers,\u201d <\/strong>the update said. Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, and Tunisia (alongside a few other non-MENA economies) were flagged as having the most limited buffers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>But many of these governments have stretched their monetary and fiscal policies thin <\/strong><strong>due to successive crises<\/strong> \u2014 think of the high interest rates and a surge in the debt-to-GDP ratios that these economies have accumulated in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. That means interest rate hikes as a policy tool to respond to inflation would be an extremely painful option, given the already very high debt servicing bill in many of these countries \u2014 reaching as much as 89% of the country\u2019s revenues, in the case of Egypt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Remittances as the elephant in the room: <\/strong>Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan rely on the GCC for 4-8% of their GDP via remittances. Although \u201cremittance flows tend to remain stable in times of crises,\u201d the longer-term concern is that \u201cprolonged conflict could reduce demand for foreign labour in the GCC economies.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Many of these governments have stretched their monetary and fiscal policies thin due to successive crises<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":114227,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2618],"tags":[2617,2613,2538,2616,2615,2614],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-113763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy-public-policy","tag-economy-public-policy","tag-egypt","tag-enterpriseam","tag-iraq","tag-jordan","tag-lebanon","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bdaeed7d-97e2-4513-b015-74b7247f40f3","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"No soft landings","related_issue":[113754],"teaser":"Many of these governments have stretched their monetary and fiscal policies thin due to successive crises","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon are the most vulnerable to war shocks, EBRD warns - MENA+ Edition<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/03\/30\/egypt-jordan-iraq-and-lebanon-are-the-most-vulnerable-to-war-shocks-ebrd-warns-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and 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