{"id":113591,"date":"2026-04-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=113591"},"modified":"2026-04-13T19:25:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T19:25:00","slug":"gcc-could-be-heading-into-recession-oxford-economics-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/04\/03\/gcc-could-be-heading-into-recession-oxford-economics-says\/","title":{"rendered":"GCC could be heading into recession, Oxford Economics says"},"content":{"rendered":"

The GCC is likely to slip <\/strong>into<\/strong> a war-induced recession <\/strong>this <\/strong>year, with GDP now projected <\/strong>to contract by 0.2%<\/strong>, Oxford Economics says in a research note<\/a>. That\u2019s a massive 4.6 percentage point downgrade from pre-war estimates as the Iran war enters its second month and reshapes the region's economic outlook.<\/p>\n

Oxford is penciling in a two-month conflict with full closure at Hormuz<\/strong>, followed by another two months of relative recovery in which Hormuz would see volumes rebound to 50% of its pre-war levels.<\/p>\n

The impact will be felt unevenly across the bloc, with Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain facing <\/strong>the sharpest downgrades. <\/strong>The UAE will also take a hit, the note says. Oxford thinks fallout from the conflict will include a long-term hit to both tourism and domestic demand, with recovery expected to be gradual and closely tied to how the security situation evolves.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia and Oman are better positioned to weather the shock<\/strong> thanks to alternative export routes that bypass the Strait and allowing them to sustain some of the pre-war flows while benefiting from elevated prices.<\/p>\n

While Qatar boasts solid buffers, it is set to take the biggest hit among the bunch, <\/strong>with USD 20 bn in annual revenue expected to vanish after Iranian strikes took the Ras Laffan LNG complex offline, taking up to 20% of Qatar\u2019s LNG capacity out of service for as long as 3-5 years. <\/p>\n

Beyond the GCC, Lebanon bracing for a possible 12-16% hit to GDP<\/strong>, according to a report from the Finance International Institute\u2019s chief MENA economist Garbis Iradian seen by L\u2019Orient Today<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\n

First indicators<\/p>\n

The <\/strong>UAE\u2019s purchasing managers\u2019 index (PMI)<\/a><\/strong> shrank in March to its lowest level since <\/strong>June 2021<\/strong>, falling to 52.9 from 55.0 the month prior. The March reading \u2014 which still indicates an expansion of non-oil business activity \u2014 reflects a slight softening of output that was still largely offset by businesses working through their sales pipelines and continuing to take on new business (albeit at a slower rate). The worst-hit sectors appear to be tourism, retail, and logistics, while tech and construction are less impacted. <\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s PMI also took a hit, dropping to a <\/strong>five-month low at 47.9<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 remaining in <\/strong>contraction territory<\/strong> \u2014 as Ankara\u2019s non-oil businesses were impacted by higher inflation, supply chain delays, and an overall sense of uncertainty as a result of the war in their backyard. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Saudi and Oman will be spared the worst, but the rest are in for a rough year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":113592,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2635],"tags":[2538,2631,2632,2563,2634,2562],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-113591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-scorecard","tag-enterpriseam","tag-gcc","tag-kuwait","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-the-scorecard","tag-uae","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"7a740a7e-0365-45bb-ba69-86f816bde70e","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/2\/1137.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Brace 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