{"id":113278,"date":"2026-03-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/?p=113278"},"modified":"2026-04-13T18:30:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T18:30:13","slug":"the-ieas-record-412-mn-barrel-oil-release-wont-close-the-gap-and-iran-is-making-sure-of-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/menaplus\/2026\/03\/16\/the-ieas-record-412-mn-barrel-oil-release-wont-close-the-gap-and-iran-is-making-sure-of-it\/","title":{"rendered":"The IEA\u2019s record 412 mn barrel oil release won\u2019t close the gap \u2014 and Iran is making sure of it"},"content":{"rendered":"

IEA member countries <\/strong>pledged overnight<\/a><\/strong> to release nearly 412 mn barrels <\/strong>of crude<\/strong>, including some 271 mn from public stocks. That\u2019s more than double what they released in a bid to smooth-out the market after Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, the previous record. <\/p>\n

It ain\u2019t gonna make a difference, folks: <\/strong>Pundits suggest the fastest member states can get crude to market is at a rate of about 2 mn bbl\/d. With Hormuz shut, the global market is losing nearly 20 mn bbl\/d that can\u2019t move through the strait. And even with rising production from folks who can still ship to market, production is on track to decline 8 mn bbl\/d in March, IEA estimates<\/a>. There\u2019s a reason folks are calling this the largest-ever supply disruption to the global oil market. Brent crude is north of USD 104 \/ bbl this morning. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The math gets worse when you look at the timeline.<\/strong> Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand will start releasing their 109 mn bbl immediately, but the bulk from the Americas and Europe won\u2019t hit the market until the end of March. \u201cIt buys time, but it does not solve the crisis,\u201d Bernstein analysts<\/a> told clients.<\/p>\n

And Iran is methodically targeting the infrastructure that was supposed to be the <\/strong>workaround.<\/strong> Oil loading at Fujairah \u2014 which sits outside Hormuz and connects to Abu Dhabi\u2019s oil fields by pipeline \u2014 is back online after a drone-sparked fire stopped operations<\/a> on Saturday, Bloomberg reports. Authorities haven\u2019t said when full operations will resume. Adnoc had already shut its Ruwais refinery earlier in the week after a drone strike sparked a fire.<\/p>\n

The Fujairah strike came hours after Iran issued an <\/strong>unprecedented threat<\/a><\/strong> against <\/strong>three major UAE ports<\/strong> \u2014 Fujairah, Dubai\u2019s Jebel Ali (the Middle East\u2019s busiest container port), and Abu Dhabi\u2019s Khalifa port. Tehran\u2019s Mizan news agency, linked to the IRGC, claimed the US had used the ports to launch strikes on Iran\u2019s Kharg Island. RBC analyst Helima Croft put it bluntly: the IRGC is signaling that there is \u201c no safe harbor<\/a>.\u201d <\/p>\n

BACKGROUND-<\/strong> Massive fires broke out in fuel storage tanks at Oman\u2019s Salalah Port<\/a> last Wednesday after a coordinated drone strike. Salalah, sitting on the Arabian Sea outside Hormuz, was supposed to be another workaround \u2014 a major transshipment hub that expanded its capacity to 6.5 mn TEU just last year<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s warning that it would target US-linked banking interests also rang true<\/strong>, with debris from an intercepted drone damaging the outside of a building in DIFC. <\/p>\n

\n

No deal, no timeline<\/p>\n

US President Donald Trump says the US rejected an Iranian suggestion it was open to <\/strong>a truce<\/strong>, asking for \u201cbetter terms\u201d without clarifying what those terms would be (listen, runtime: 5:02<\/a>). \u201cIran wants to make a deal, and I don\u2019t want to make it because the terms aren\u2019t good enough yet,\u201d he told NBC News on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Tehran begs to differ. Iran\u2019s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi flatly denied seeking a <\/strong>ceasefire<\/strong> or talks in a CBS Face the Nation interview on Sunday. \u201cWe are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes.\u201d Reuters<\/a> reports that both Washington and Tehran had separately rebuffed mediation efforts by Oman and Egypt.<\/p>\n

Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others to send <\/strong>warships to help reopen Hormuz.<\/strong> The response so far: nothing concrete. France has not committed, the UK said it is \u201cexploring options,\u201d and South Korea said it \u201ctakes note.\u201d US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he expects China to be a \u201cconstructive partner\u201d \u2014 but Beijing has said nothing publicly, and as one analyst noted, China doesn\u2019t need to help because Iranian oil is already flowing to China. <\/p>\n

Also on our radar:<\/strong><\/p>\n