{"id":90084,"date":"2026-06-03T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=90084"},"modified":"2026-06-03T10:00:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T10:00:28","slug":"india-hits-fiscal-targets-and-sees-export-surge-but-gulf-crisis-squeezes-fuel-shipments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/06\/03\/india-hits-fiscal-targets-and-sees-export-surge-but-gulf-crisis-squeezes-fuel-shipments\/","title":{"rendered":"India hits fiscal targets and sees export surge, but Gulf crisis squeezes fuel shipments"},"content":{"rendered":"

India\u2019s<\/strong> macroeconomic engines are humming along<\/strong>, with factory output and exports holding their ground even as the ongoing Gulf energy shock casts a long shadow over the nation's import bill, subsidy burden, and trade balance. <\/p>\n

\n

Factory output beats expectations<\/p>\n

India\u2019s industrial output expanded 4.9% y-o-y in April<\/strong>, beating the 3.9% expected by economists polled by Reuters<\/a>. Manufacturing led the print with 6.2% growth, supported by a 16% rise in capital goods output. Consumer durables grew 4.3%, consumer non-durables rose 2.8%, and electricity generation increased 4.9%, while mining contracted 5.1%.<\/p>\n

\n

Fiscal deficit lands on target<\/p>\n

Closing the books<\/strong>: <\/strong>India\u2019s FY 2026 (ended on 31 March) fiscal deficit came in at INR 15.19 tn (USD 159.9 bn), or 4.4% of GDP, in line with the government's revised estimate. Net tax receipts rose to INR 33 tn, and non-tax revenue increased to INR 6.8 tn.<\/p>\n

Spending cuts:<\/strong> The government met the deficit target partly by cutting spending. Total expenditure was around INR 596.91 bn below the revised estimate, Business Standard<\/a> reports. Revenue spending was cut by INR 266.36 bn, while capital expenditure was reduced by INR 330.55 bn.<\/p>\n

The new fiscal year opened with a heavier run rate. <\/strong>April\u2019s fiscal deficit reached 21.4% of the full-year target, compared with 11.9% in the same month last year. Economists flagged risks from higher fertilizer and LPG subsidies, lower excise-duty collections, corporate tax shortfalls, and weaker dividends from oil marketing companies.<\/p>\n

\n

Exports surge<\/p>\n

Exports grew in double digits during April and May<\/strong>, though full May trade data is due on 15 June. April exports rose 13.78% to USD 43.56 bn, the highest monthly outbound shipment value in more than four years. The trade deficit widened to USD 28.38 bn as imports also rose.<\/p>\n

Fuel exports drag:<\/strong> India\u2019s outbound fuel shipments fell sharply in May as refiners kept more supply at home during the Iran war shock, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing Kpler data. Shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel averaged about 878k bbl \/ d in May, down 31% y-o-y, as refinery maintenance, a gasoline export tax and disruptions to incoming supplies reduced exportable volumes.<\/p>\n

LPG priority: <\/strong>India had imported about 90% of its LPG from the Middle East before the war, making cooking-gas supply a policy priority after Hormuz flows were disrupted. Refiners raised LPG output to a record 52k tons \/ d in May, 50% higher y-o-y, but that left fewer barrels available for gasoline and diesel exports.<\/p>\n

The export push is now more closely tied to trade negotiations.<\/strong> India is targeting USD 1 tn in exports this year and USD 2 tn over the next five years, according to Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal<\/a>. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Plus: Industrial output beats expectations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90085,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2647],"tags":[2514,2402,2544,2731,2440],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-90084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-exports","tag-india-focus","tag-manufacturing","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1ce4c15d-585b-4375-bc7e-5bf07c22fe6e","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/5\/751.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"India\u2019s 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