{"id":89761,"date":"2026-05-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=89761"},"modified":"2026-05-20T10:51:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-20T10:51:13","slug":"this-afternoon-cra-trims-india-growth-forecast-but-rbi-payout-will-cushion-revenue-shortfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/05\/20\/this-afternoon-cra-trims-india-growth-forecast-but-rbi-payout-will-cushion-revenue-shortfall\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS AFTERNOON: CRA trims India growth forecast but RBI payout will cushion revenue shortfall"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. <\/strong>Today\u2019s issue is packed with energy news \u2014 from retail fuel price hike to macroeconomic headwinds as another ratings agency trims India\u2019s GDP forecast. To soften the fiscal blow, the Reserve Bank of India is stepping up with a massive, potential INR 3 tn dividend payout.<\/p>\n

The policy response is in overdrive:<\/strong> The government is rolling out everything from import curbs to strict fuel austerity measures across state-run institutions, alongside an ambitious USD 1 bn EV push for commercial fleets.<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE- <\/strong>Shares<\/strong> of Indian ports-to-power conglomerate Adani Group <\/strong>gained over 5%<\/a><\/strong>, after three US agencies resolved their judicial proceedings against Asia\u2019s richest man Gautam Adani and his associates. The US Justice Department dropped criminal fraud charges linked to Indian power contract bribery allegations. Separately, the US Securities and Exchange Commission settled its civil lawsuit, and Adani Enterprises agreed to pay USD 275 mn to resolve alleged sanctions violations concerning LPG imports from Iran.<\/p>\n

^^ We have more on the legal relief for the Adani Group (what it means for the conglomerate) in this morning\u2019s Planet Finance.<\/p>\n

Oil shock enters India\u2019s growth math<\/p>\n

Rating<\/strong> agency ICRA trimmed India\u2019s FY 2027 growth forecast to 6.2%, down from its earlier projection of 6.5%<\/strong>, under the assumption that crude oil prices will average USD 95 \/ bbl during the fiscal year, according to a note (pdf)<\/a>. Based on this assumption, CPI inflation is projected at 4.7%, while the fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.7% of GDP.<\/p>\n

\u201cICRA now assumes crude oil prices to average at USD 95 \/ bbl in FY 2027, against our prior estimate of USD 85 \/ bbl,<\/strong> given the ongoing stickiness in prices amid the stalemate in the Middle East. Consequently, we have pared our baseline forecast for the FY 2027 GDP growth,\u201d the agency\u2019s chief economist Aditi Nayar said.<\/p>\n

Furthermore: <\/strong>If crude averages USD 105 \/ bbl in FY 2027, ICRA projects GDP growth would slow to 5.8%, while CPI inflation would accelerate to 5% and the fiscal deficit would widen to 5% of GDP. Under its USD 95 \/ bbl baseline, the agency expects the Middle East conflict to add INR 1.15 tn (0.3% of GDP) to the government\u2019s fiscal gap.<\/p>\n

The drag is already showing up: <\/strong>ICRA expects 4Q FY 2026 (ended on 31 March) GDP growth to slow to 7% from 7.8% in the previous quarter, taking the growth rate for the fiscal year to 7.5%. This comes on the back of a 2.8% y-o-y decline in merchandise exports and a slower industrial growth amid higher input costs and supply-chain disruptions during the quarter.<\/p>\n

RBI payout to cushion oil shock<\/p>\n

<\/a> India\u2019s<\/strong> central bank dividend is becoming a fiscal shock absorber as the Iran war impacts the fiscal math.<\/strong> The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may transfer close to INR 3 tn (USD 31.2 bn) to the government this week, with some economists' estimates going as high as INR 3.4 tn, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. The central bank\u2019s board is expected to meet on Friday to approve the transfer, which would exceed last year\u2019s INR 2.69 tn payout. The payout will come from the RBI\u2019s income on forex, government securities, liquidity operations, and currency-printing fees.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>The timing gives the government a revenue buffer against a war-led rise in crude prices. A larger RBI dividend provides the government with more non-tax revenue, which could help mitigate borrowing pressures should energy and fertilizer costs rise further.<\/p>\n

This is India\u2019s fiscal cushion against a Middle East energy shock.<\/strong> The dividend does not offset the risk of higher crude prices, but it gives the government more fiscal headroom to absorb the first hit without immediately cutting spending or borrowing more.<\/p>\n

Hormuz rerun for Indian ships<\/p>\n

<\/a> India<\/strong> is preparing to send state-owned tankers back into the Strait of Hormuz to load energy cargoes from Middle East suppliers<\/strong>, the first such move since the Iran war disrupted shipping through the waterway, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing unnamed sources.<\/p>\n

Energy security overrides risk:<\/strong> The plans are operationally ready, pending final government approval. State-run Shipping Corporation of India is prepared to resume Gulf operations once it receives clearance from the Indian Navy and booking commitments from refiners.<\/p>\n

Why it matters: <\/strong>India, battling surging energy costs, has spent weeks relying on Russian crude \u2014 which comes with sanctions risks \u2014 to plug supply gaps. Alternative cargoes mean longer voyages and higher freight costs, making Middle Eastern barrels hard to replace.<\/p>\n

Military escort and cover: <\/strong>New Delhi has ramped up naval deployment in the region, doubling warship presence and expanding aerial surveillance. Indian naval vessels are escorting India-bound ships once they exit<\/a> the strait, while the state has also rolled out a marine ins. framework<\/a> to maintain coverage for cargoes moving through high-risk waters.<\/p>\n

PSA<\/p>\n

Saudi<\/strong> Arabia-based low-cost airline <\/strong>Flyadeal<\/a><\/strong> will launch daily flights between Riyadh and Hyderabad starting 1 July<\/strong>, marking its first regular scheduled service to India, Flyadeal CEO Sanjiv Kapoor said on LinkedIn<\/a>. More India routes will follow soon, with Flyadeal serving price-conscious travelers while its sister airline Saudia continues full-service operations.<\/p>\n

Happening today<\/p>\n

Prime<\/strong> Minister Narendra Modi landed in Rome today for talks with Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni<\/strong>, on the last leg of his five-nation tour<\/a>, as per his post on X<\/a>. The visit has triggered the meme-machines for a now-familiar \u2018 Melodi<\/a> \u2019 partnership. Beyond the social media optics, we watch out for harder takeaways \u2014 expected later today \u2014 around defence, manufacturing, clean energy, and if the needle moves on India-Italy investment ties.<\/p>\n

The big story abroad<\/p>\n

With Kevin Warsh poised to take the helm of the Federal Reserve this Friday<\/strong>, business headlines are focusing on rising treasury yields<\/a> that could complicate his expected dovish agenda. Investors may demand higher returns for long-term debt, especially amid rising energy prices, a resilient economy, and the highest yield on treasuries in almost 20 years.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the tech world: <\/strong>Google is further integrating AI in its search function while introducing what it calls Gemini Spark<\/a>, an AI \u201cagent\u201d that is designed to function independently and act on a user\u2019s behalf. The tech giant is also rolling out smart glasses that will include a camera and speakers in a bid to challenge moves made by its rival Meta.<\/p>\n

And speaking of AI: <\/strong>Standard Chartered is looking<\/a> to slash some 8k jobs in favor of relying more heavily on AI, with cuts affecting its human resources and risk and compliance functions. The company\u2019s CEO Bill Winters has characterized the move as a shift away from \u201clower-value human capital.\u201d<\/p>\n

ALSO: <\/strong>Elon Musk\u2019s SpaceX has reportedly tapped<\/a> Goldman Sachs to lead its highly anticipated IPO, with the bank set to assume the most prominent spot among the underwriters involved. Goldman and Morgan Stanley will reportedly be serving as lead bankers.<\/p>\n

Good news for Arsenal fans: <\/strong>For the first time in 22 years, Arsenal FC took home<\/a> the Premier League championship after Manchester City tied in yesterday\u2019s showdown with Bournemouth. The Gunners, under the leadership of Mikel Arteta, have secured a total of 82 points.<\/p>\n

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