{"id":89564,"date":"2026-05-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=89564"},"modified":"2026-05-13T10:29:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T10:29:11","slug":"india-is-prepping-emergency-capital-and-import-controls-as-inr-hits-new-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/05\/13\/india-is-prepping-emergency-capital-and-import-controls-as-inr-hits-new-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"India is prepping emergency capital and import controls as INR hits new lows"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>Out of room: <\/strong>After two years of shielding consumers from oil shocks, the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, the Finance Ministry, and the Reserve Bank of India are in active discussions on emergency FX-saving measures, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-05-11\/india-considering-emergency-measures-to-save-foreign-exchange?srnd=phx-india-v2\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The INR closed at 95.64 per USD yesterday<\/strong><strong>, a record low and the worst showing in Asia.<\/strong> The dip is triggering corporate hedging losses, amplifying USD demand exactly as supply tightens. Meanwhile, FX reserves fell to a one-month low of USD 690.7 bn. Brent is up 46% since the 28 February US-Israel strikes on Iran, pushing India's import bill into structurally unsustainable territory. FPI outflows have exceeded USD 20 bn since the war\u2019s onset.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cAn annual depreciation of roughly 4% is not a crisis but inevitable for maintaining India\u2019s export competitiveness \u2014 potentially leading the INR towards the 100\/USD mark<\/strong>,\u201d former RBI research director and ex-IMF economist Charan Singh tells EnterpriseAM. With inflation running at nearly 6% in India versus 2% in the US, the math does the work.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Why it matters<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Tightening curbs could threaten India-UAE trade and real estate flows:<\/strong> Dubai\u2019s bullion ecosystem is the most exposed single trade, and India is its largest customer. Tighter import curbs would hit volumes fast. A tightening of the Liberalized Remittance Scheme, currently capped at USD 250k annually, could slow Indian capital flowing into Dubai and Abu Dhabi real estate \u2014 a financial artery few corridor players have priced in. For Gulf SWFs sitting on Indian assets, the entry point is getting cheaper, but the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/economy\/news\/pm-modi-s-savings-appeal-signals-fiscal-stress-at-tipping-point-nomura-126051100648_1.html\" style=\"\">balance-of-payments deficit<\/a> is tracking above USD 70 bn, its highest point since 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\"> Hiking and widening<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>State refiners are preparing an increase of about INR 5 (USD 0.06) per liter <\/strong>\u2014 far below the INR 15-20 needed to fully offset losses, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-05-11\/india-state-refiners-eye-modest-fuel-price-hike-as-losses-mount?srnd=phx-india-v2\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The plan is to trim daily under-recoveries of roughly INR 10 bn (USD 105 mn), with <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/05\/11\/india-is-publicly-saying-it-can-no-longer-absorb-the-crude-hike\/\" style=\"\">state refiner losses<\/a> now past INR 1 tn (USD 12 bn) over 10 weeks. The two-year excise-duty cushion that absorbed the volatility cost Delhi nearly 0.5% of GDP, per Nomura, and it's run out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>\u201cStrategic paranoia\u201d is what businesses should now adopt<\/strong>, Uday Kotak, founder of Kotak Mahindra Bank, said this week. He argues that the impact has been muted so far but is \u201cset to come big\u201d and that firms should plan independently rather than rely on state support.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>India\u2019s current account deficit is <\/strong><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.business-standard.com\/economy\/news\/economists-see-fy27-cad-widening-as-oil-shock-remittance-risks-mount-126051101327_1.html\" style=\"\">expected<\/a><\/strong><strong> to widen to 1.5-2.4% of GDP in FY 2027.<\/strong> The revisions came on the back of revised crude assumptions of USD 90-95 \/ bbl plus rising gas and fertilizer import costs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">What\u2019s next<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The RBI\u2019s weekly FX reserves data due Friday will indicate whether drawdowns are accelerating.<\/strong> Markets will track whether state refiners move on pump prices before or after Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in Abu Dhabi. Any tightening of remittance limits or fresh RBI measures on FX outflows reads as escalation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.) <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Out of room: After two years of shielding consumers from oil shocks, the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, the Finance Ministry, and the Reserve Bank of India are in active discussions on emergency FX-saving measures, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The INR closed at 95.64 per USD yesterday, a record low [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89565,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2647],"tags":[2795,2514,2402,2731],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-89564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-crude","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-india-focus","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"41a85a4b-9b3b-4fbf-b55a-15ad8ab61794","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/5\/751.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Curbing the crisis","related_issue":[89558],"teaser":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>India is prepping emergency capital and import controls as INR hits new lows - MENA India Corridors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/05\/13\/india-is-prepping-emergency-capital-and-import-controls-as-inr-hits-new-lows\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"India is prepping emergency capital and import controls as INR hits new lows\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Out of room: After two years of shielding consumers from oil shocks, the Prime Minister\u2019s Office, the Finance Ministry, and the Reserve Bank of India are in active discussions on emergency FX-saving measures, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. 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