{"id":88603,"date":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=88603"},"modified":"2026-04-15T10:16:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T10:16:31","slug":"imf-trims-global-gdp-forecast-with-dispersed-war-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/15\/imf-trims-global-gdp-forecast-with-dispersed-war-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF trims global GDP forecast with dispersed war scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

The IMF has revised down its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026 from the 3.4% projected in <\/strong>January<\/a><\/strong>, according to its recent World Economic Outlook report<\/a>(pdf)<\/a>. Without the war, the IMF says global growth would have been revised upward due to strong technology investment and resilient productivity resulting from AI adoption. <\/p>\n

The MENA region faces the most significant downgrade of 2.8 percentage points to a 1.1% <\/strong>growth rate in 2026<\/strong>, from a previous forecast of 3.9%, highlighting a hardening regional divide amid war. Saudi Arabia\u2019s growth forecast was slashed down to 3.1% in 2026, a major 1.4 percentage points decrease from the Fund\u2019s January projection. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027, up by about 0.9 percentage points from the January forecast. <\/p>\n

The UAE's 2026 GDP growth projection was also cut to 3.1%<\/strong>, down from 5% in the Fund\u2019s <\/a>October<\/a> projection. Egypt\u2019s GDP forecast was also revised down to 4.2% in 2026, a 0.5 percentage points decrease from its January<\/a> projection. Meanwhile, growth is anticipated to rebound in 2027 to reach 4.8%. <\/p>\n

Global inflation forecast was raised by 0.7 percentage points to 4.4% in 2026<\/strong>, citing a double-tap of higher energy and food prices. The likelihood of maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period is now higher than indicated by the October 2025 projections.<\/p>\n

\n

Dark scenarios<\/p>\n

The IMF\u2019s \u201cadverse scenario\u201d sees the global economy slashed by 0.8 percentage points off global growth in 2026<\/strong>, dragging it down to 2.5%, while sending headline inflation to 5.4%. This scenario envisions the global economy choked by a sudden 80% spike in oil prices and a 160% surge in Asian and European gas prices. <\/p>\n

The real danger lies in the IMF\u2019s \u201csevere scenario.\u201d<\/strong> A global recession \u2014 will see a persistent 100% surge in oil prices in 2Q of 2026 and a 200% spike in gas prices \u2014 would choke global growth down to just below 2%, a level seen only during the global financial crisis and the pandemic. The impact is structurally deeper and more persistent, with inflation skyrocketing up to 6.1% by 2027, forcing the Fed to hike rates by 100 bps.<\/p>\n

\n

Credit pain to hit emerging markets<\/p>\n

Emerging markets \u2014 excluding China \u2014 would face a violent repricing of risk in the worst scenarios. <\/strong>Sovereign spreads are projected to widen by up to 100 bps, while corporate premiums could jump by as much as 200 bps. This freezes the capital flows MENA firms rely on for survival.<\/p>\n

This time is different: <\/strong>Central banks won\u2019t have the luxury of cutting rates to support growth, and instead, they will be forced into mandatory tightening to anchor inflation expectations, leaving the private sector to navigate a high-cost, low-liquidity environment alone, the report said.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Signs of diplomatic engagement by regional and global powers helped calm markets earlier today. This was felt by Asian markets, with Japan\u2019s Nikkei rising around 0.6%, South Korea\u2019s Kospi gaining 2.8%, and MSCI\u2019s broad gauge of Asia-Pacific shares \u2014 excluding Japan \u2014 reaching its highest level in six weeks. US futures are broadly trading flat.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sensex<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

78,122<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: -9.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NIFTY 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

24,230<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: -7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,898<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,848<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.2% (YTD: -5.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,575<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +9.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

50,411<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +20.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Boursa Kuwait<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,119<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: -3.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

QSE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,757<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,967<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: +1.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,615<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.06% (YTD: +6.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,968<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 95<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.60<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,798<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 73,949<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST \/ 2pm GST.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MENA region sees the most significant slip by a 2.8 percentage points down from 3.9%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2447],"tags":[2514,2402,2446],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f8c8cff6-64f0-43a4-893f-55e6b55695c9","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/665.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF 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