{"id":88592,"date":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=88592"},"modified":"2026-04-15T10:16:27","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T10:16:27","slug":"high-oil-prices-could-cut-up-to-80-bps-from-india-growth-says-sp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/15\/high-oil-prices-could-cut-up-to-80-bps-from-india-growth-says-sp\/","title":{"rendered":"High oil prices could cut up to 80 bps from India growth, says S&#038;P"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>S&P Global Ratings <\/strong><strong>projects a moderate slowdown in India\u2019s GDP growth, estimating a hit of up to 80 bps <\/strong>if oil averages around USD 130 \/ bbl this year, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.spglobal.com\/ratings\/en\/regulatory\/article\/-\/view\/type\/HTML\/id\/3544971\" style=\"\">note<\/a>. Strong macroeconomic and financial sector parameters are likely to help the economy absorb the impact of sustained high oil prices without immediate financial instability. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>\u201cIndia isn\u2019t immune to the shocks reverberating from the Middle East war. The pain of higher energy prices and supply disruptions may persist for months, crimping economic activity across households, corporations, and banks,\u201d the rating agency warned.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The mitigants:<\/strong> Despite these headwinds, S&P expects strong corporate balance sheets, well-capitalized banks, and a resilient external position to provide adequate buffers against the worst of the fallout. India\u2019s economy entered 2026 with strong growth momentum, resilient domestic demand, and low inflation, which \u2014 combined with potential government support \u2014 should help absorb the near-term shocks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The stress test: <\/strong>S&P assumes crude at USD 130 \/ bbl in 2026 and around USD 100 in 2027, versus a base case of USD 85 and USD 70. At these levels, sustained energy costs and supply disruptions are expected to weigh on demand and slow down economic activity. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Higher crude prices are expected to raise input costs, push retail prices up, and widen the current account deficit. <\/strong>S&P estimates that every USD 10 \/ bbl increase could expand the deficit by about 0.4 percentage points of GDP, while depreciating the INR.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Rating steady, but fiscal risks linger:<\/strong> The rating agency does not expect any immediate impact on India\u2019s sovereign rating, though it cautioned that fiscal consolidation efforts could face temporary setbacks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Inflation rose in March<\/p>\n<p><strong>India\u2019s retail inflation inched up to 3.4% y-o-y in March from 3.21% in February<\/strong>, remaining below the Reserve Bank of India\u2019s (RBI) 4% target, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pib.gov.in\/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2251519&reg=3&lang=2\" style=\"\">press release<\/a>. The uptick was driven by 3.8% food inflation in March versus 3.4% a month earlier. <\/p>\n<p><strong>Wholesale price inflation (WPI) rose to 3.8% y-o-y in March<\/strong>, its fastest pace in over three years, driven by higher prices of oil, food and manufactured products, according to government <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pib.gov.in\/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2252109&reg=3&lang=1\" style=\"\">data<\/a>. The WPI in February was 2.1%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: Inflation numbers rose sharply in March<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88593,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2647],"tags":[2514,2402,2731,2576,2775,2615],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-india-focus","tag-inflation","tag-oil","tag-rbi","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4f095101-2cb4-4efd-9a36-1caa58005f8d","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/495.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"S&P flags up to 80 bps hit to growth if oil prices stay elevated","related_issue":[88588],"teaser":"Plus: Inflation numbers rose sharply in March"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>High oil prices could cut up to 80 bps from India growth, says S&amp;P - MENA India Corridors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/15\/high-oil-prices-could-cut-up-to-80-bps-from-india-growth-says-sp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"High oil prices could cut up to 80 bps from India growth, says S&amp;P\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Plus: Inflation numbers rose sharply 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