{"id":88243,"date":"2026-04-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=88243"},"modified":"2026-04-01T10:17:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:17:34","slug":"a-four-week-war-could-mean-a-usd-194-bn-hit-to-regional-gdp-undp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/01\/a-four-week-war-could-mean-a-usd-194-bn-hit-to-regional-gdp-undp\/","title":{"rendered":"A four-week war could mean a USD 194 bn hit to regional GDP -UNDP"},"content":{"rendered":"

A month of high-intensity military escalation is enough to derail Arab states<\/strong>\u2019 development trajectory<\/strong>, according to a high-level UNDP preliminary assessment report (pdf)<\/a>, which estimates up to USD 194 bn in GDP losses across the region. The study warns that even a \u201cshort-lived\u201d month-long conflict is currently generating profound, persistent socio-economic scars.<\/p>\n

Regional GDP is estimated to contract by 3.7-6%. <\/strong>Economic shocks from trade, energy, and finance are exacerbating already existing systemic weaknesses in the region when it comes to \u201ceconomic diversification, dependence on external markets, [labor] market composition, and fiscal capacity,\u201d the report highlights. The impacts are mainly felt through higher prices and inflationary pressures, which will \u201cerode real incomes.\u201d<\/p>\n

A surge in poverty will be the starkest human impact<\/strong>, with nearly 4 mn additional people at risk of falling below the poverty line under high-intensity scenarios. The Levant, Sudan, and Yemen are at the epicenter, accounting for roughly 75% of this spike \u2014 up to 3.3 mn people.<\/p>\n

There are wider human repercussions too:<\/strong> The Human Development Index, which measures key indicators like life expectancy, living standard, and education, is projected to drop by 0.2-0.4%, effectively erasing 6-12 months of development progress. In the Levant, that setback is more severe, potentially rolling back the clock by 1.5 years.<\/p>\n

Unemployment is expected to rise by 1.8-4%<\/strong>, equivalent to 1.6-3.6 mn lost jobs. Unskilled workers are likely to bear the brunt of it, particularly in the GCC, where the labor market remains highly exposed to external shocks.<\/p>\n

The GCC and the Levant face the sharpest macroeconomic contractions<\/strong>, with both subregions expected to lose between 5.2-8.7% of their GDP. Sustaining stability now requires moving beyond hydrocarbon-heavy balance sheets toward diversified production bases and \u201cshock-proof\u201d logistics capable of surviving a closed strait, UN Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States Abdallah Al Dardari explained<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets were up this morning following hopeful comments from US President Donald Trump regarding a potential end to the Iran war. Japan\u2019s Nikkei was up almost 4%, and South Korea\u2019s Kospi rose by more than 6%. Over on Wall Street, futures are trading higher.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sensex<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

73,037<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: -15.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NIFTY 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,646<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: -12.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,619<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.03% (YTD: -4.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,534<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8% (YTD: -10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,257<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.07% (YTD: +7.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

46,081<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Boursa Kuwait<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,745<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: -6.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

QSE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,265<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: -5.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,528<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.9% (YTD: -4.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,346<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.6% (YTD: +2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,670<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.8% (YTD: -3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 102<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.01% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.86 <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,719<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 68,492<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.6% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST \/ 2pm GST.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nearly 4 mn people could be pushed into poverty amid high-intensity scenarios<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88244,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2447],"tags":[2514,2402,2445,2446],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"dcc325b1-8a78-4016-a067-cc3c7e41ddda","order":"7","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/2.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"How 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