{"id":88233,"date":"2026-04-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=88233"},"modified":"2026-04-01T10:17:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-01T10:17:21","slug":"this-afternoon-war-drag-could-shave-1-pp-off-gdp-growth-says-ey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/01\/this-afternoon-war-drag-could-shave-1-pp-off-gdp-growth-says-ey\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS AFTERNOON: War drag could shave 1 pp off GDP growth, says EY"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Good afternoon, readers. <\/strong>The macroeconomic toll of the ongoing regional conflict is coming into sharper focus as EY joins global agencies trimming India\u2019s growth forecast. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>**A QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE<\/strong>- EnterpriseAM MENA<>India will take a break from your inboxes on Friday, and will be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Monday, 6 April. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>But corporate dealmaking hasn\u2019t ground to a halt. <\/strong>Abu Dhabi\u2019s International Holding Company is moving forward with a massive USD 1 bn play for a controlling stake in Sammaan Capital. And the IPO pipeline in India is firing up despite volatile markets. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Plus:<\/strong> The Reserve Bank of India is fundamentally shaking up the capital markets by finally allowing domestic banks to finance corporate M&As. The central bank is also stepping in to extend a vital credit lifeline to exporters caught in the logistical crossfire.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Watch this space <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt1\"><\/a> <strong>ECONOMY \u2014 <\/strong><strong>India\u2019s<\/strong><strong> GDP growth could erode by around <\/strong><strong>1 percentage point <\/strong><strong>while inflation may rise by <\/strong><strong>1.5 pp<\/strong><strong> if the war persists through FY 2027<\/strong>, according to EY\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ey.com\/content\/dam\/ey-unified-site\/ey-com\/en-in\/insights\/tax\/economy-watch\/documents\/2026\/03\/ey-economy-watch-monitoring-indias-macro-fiscal-performance-march-2026.pdf\" style=\"\">Economy Watch report (pdf)<\/a>. This would drag growth from EY\u2019s baseline estimates of 7% and push inflation above their predicted 4% mark. With India\u2019s nearly 90% dependence on imported crude as well as reliance on imported natural gas and fertilizers, its economy is particularly vulnerable to external shocks. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Sectoral spillovers widen: <\/strong>Energy-linked disruptions are expected to hit labor-intensive industries such as textiles, chemicals, fertilizers, and cement. Lower employment and income in these sectors would tame aggregate domestic demand, causing adverse demand-supply conditions in the broader economy, according to EY.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Policy response in focus:<\/strong> The government may need countercyclical support, the report says, including deploying the INR 572 bn (USD 6.2 bn) <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/india\/india-proposes-economic-stabilisation-fund-tackle-global-headwinds-2026-03-13\/\" style=\"\">Economic Stabilization Fund<\/a>, as global volatility continues to test macro stability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Pressure from the currency: <\/strong>The INR depreciated sharply on Monday, crossing a record low of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ptinews.com\/story\/business\/rupee-breaches-95-usd-level-settles-at-94-78-against-us-dollar\/3512890\" style=\"\">95 to the USD<\/a>. The currency has declined <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/india\/indian-rupee-hits-record-low-past-95usd-relief-rbis-fx-curbs-proves-fleeting-2026-03-30\/\" style=\"\">11% in FY 2026<\/a> (April to March), logging its worst performance in a decade amid rising crude prices and a foreign investor sell-off. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>FERTILIZERS \u2014<\/strong> <strong>India<\/strong><strong> has enough fertilizer stocks ahead of the summer sowing season, with inventory at about 18 mn tonnes<\/strong> versus 14.7 mn tonnes a year ago, according to the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pib.gov.in\/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2246951&reg=3&lang=2\" style=\"\">Chemicals and Fertilizers Ministry<\/a>. Demand for the April-September sowing season is estimated at 39 mn tonnes, with purchases in April-May typically used to build buffer supplies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Diversifying supply chains:<\/strong> With Gulf disruptions, India is sourcing fertilizers from alternative markets including Egypt, Russia, Morocco, and Canada. Fertilizer supply arrangements have been put in place, including sourcing 2.8 mn tonnes from Russia, to reduce dependence on the Middle East, which earlier accounted for up to 30% of key imports like urea and diammonium phosphate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>Domestic urea output remains below normal at 1.8 mn tonnes per month due to plant maintenance. Higher LNG costs and freight rates are adding pressure, though the government continues to supply fertilizers at subsidized prices to shield farmers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>IN CONTEXT-<\/strong> We recently mapped how India\u2019s fertilizer subsidy bill could <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/27\/tehran-allows-india-and-friendly-nations-limited-hormuz-passage\/\" style=\"\">increase by up to INR 250 bn (USD 2.7 bn)<\/a>. Plus: Indian refiners tapped an INR 6 bn (USD 72 mn) contingency fund <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/18\/india-taps-emergency-gas-funds-as-hormuz-tensions-disrupt-energy-flows\/\" style=\"\">to secure emergency gas supplies<\/a> and prevent a collapse in fertilizer manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt2\"><\/a> <strong>ENERGY<\/strong><strong> \u2014 Prices of commercial-use liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) <\/strong><strong>and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) have increased in India <\/strong>as the economic fallout of US-Israel-Iran war ripples through the energy markets, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/energy\/oil-gas\/commercial-lpg-prices-hiked-by-rs-195-5\/articleshow\/129938905.cms\" style=\"\">Economic Times<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Price revision:<\/strong> Fuel retailers have increased the price of commercial-use LPG cylinders by about 10% across Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai. ATF prices have surged by 8.6% to INR 207.3k per kiloliter. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it\u2019s happening: <\/strong>The primary reason is a 44% surge in the Saudi Contract Price \u2014 the regional benchmark \u2014 driven by severe logistical bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, between 20-30% of global LPG supplies are <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/30\/war-reshapes-indias-fuel-strategy-as-coal-and-kerosene-make-a-comeback\/\" style=\"\">reportedly stranded due to the wa<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/30\/war-reshapes-indias-fuel-strategy-as-coal-and-kerosene-make-a-comeback\/\" style=\"\">r<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>IN CONTEXT- India is currently battling its worst gas crisis in decades<\/strong>, as the country sources around <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/indias-lpg-consumption-declines-due-shortages-wake-iran-war-2026-03-16\/\" style=\"\">90% of its gas imports<\/a> from the Middle East. To protect households from the supply crunch, the government has kept the price of 14.2 kg domestic cylinders unchanged, choosing instead to redirect supplies away from industrial users to ensure cooking gas remains available for consumers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What to watch: <\/strong>While commercial LPG represents less than 10% of total consumption, the price hike will likely add significant cost pressure to the hospitality and manufacturing sectors, which are already grappling with broader supply chain disruptions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt3\"><\/a> <strong>POLICY<\/strong><strong> \u2014 <\/strong><strong>The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has extended export credit relief measures until 30 June<\/strong>, allowing exporters to continue accessing longer repayment timelines as the crisis continues to disrupt trade, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/rbidocs.rbi.org.in\/rdocs\/PressRelease\/PDFs\/PR236282B939DFF94E47F8B6C2E54EBB9825BF.PDF\" style=\"\">press release (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What\u2019s changing: <\/strong>The RBI has extended the credit period of up to 450 days for all disbursals made until 30 June 2026, covering both pre-shipment and post-shipment credit. The earlier deadline for this relaxation was 31 March 2026. The central bank also said the existing relaxation on export proceeds will continue, allowing exporters up to 15 months to realize and repatriate earnings from the date of export, compared with the standard nine-month period. The 15-month window was first introduced in November 2025 to offset challenges arising from steep US tariffs. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Why it matters: <\/strong>The extension comes as disruptions along trade routes linking India with Gulf markets continue to affect shipment timelines and payment cycles. Delays in cargo movement, higher freight and ins. costs, and disruptions at <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/business\/conflict-west-asia-indian-exporters-commerce-ministry-concerns-uae-trade-disruption-10561573\/\" style=\"\">transshipment hubs<\/a> such as Dubai are extending working capital cycles for exporters. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Trigger for extension:<\/strong> The RBI said it received <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/business\/rbi-export-relief-extension-west-asia-crisis-shipping-disruptions-10611901\/\" style=\"\">representations from stakeholders<\/a> highlighting difficulties in meeting export realization timelines, with delays linked to logistical disruptions and uncertainty around trade routes. <\/p>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-md-12 subscribe-box-panel\">\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h4 class=\"fw-lighter mb-10\">   Get <b style=\"font-weight: 700\">Enterprise<\/b> daily   <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-10\">The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<p>  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/egypt\/en\/user\/NewsLetters\" type=\"button \" class=\"btn-green px-3 d-flex align-items-center\">Subscribe here<\/a>  <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">YOU\u2019RE READING EnterpriseAM MENA <> India, your C-suite briefing on the movement of trade, investment, people, and ideas along one of the world\u2019s most exciting corridors. Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 2:30pm UAE, we dive deep into the business, finance, economy, and policy headlines and trendlines that will move markets and set the tone for your day. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Were you forwarded this briefing? <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/newsletters\/\" style=\"\">Tap or click here to sign up without charge for your own<\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/newsletters\/\" style=\"\">copy<\/a>. <strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\"> The big story abroad<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The news cycle remains fixed on the war in our region, but there may be an end in sight<\/strong>, with US President Donald Trump <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/iran-war-news-updates?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_4&mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1\" style=\"\">telling reporters<\/a> that US forces will leave Iran in two to three weeks. Washington has been able to disable Tehran\u2019s nuclear infrastructure, which will take up to 20 years to re-establish, Trump said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Watch this space: <\/strong>Trump will deliver \u201can important update on Iran\u201d in a national address scheduled for later today. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The resulting energy supply shock still holds sway, with US gasoline prices surpassing <\/strong><strong>USD 4 per gallon <\/strong>\u2014 but investors <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2026\/03\/31\/why-4-a-gallon-gas-prices-wont-trigger-fed-interest-rate-hikes-and-could-lead-to-cuts.html\" style=\"\">remain confident<\/a> that the Federal Reserve won\u2019t be hiking rates anytime soon. Instead, investors anticipate the Fed will hold rates or potentially pivot to cuts later this year, wagering that rising energy costs are more likely to stifle economic growth than trigger inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Meanwhile, in the world of AI: <\/strong>OpenAI <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/openai.com\/index\/accelerating-the-next-phase-ai\/\" style=\"\">raised USD 122 bn<\/a> in a record-breaking funding round, raising its valuation to USD 852 bn. \u201cAI is driving productivity gains, accelerating scientific discovery, and expanding what people and organizations can build. This funding gives us the resources to continue to lead at the scale this moment demands,\u201d the company behind ChatGPT said. The round was led by Japan\u2019s SoftBank.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>ALSO WORTH NOTING- <\/strong>US private equity firms are <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-31\/goldman-sachs-carlyle-show-private-equity-s-hunger-for-fast-food-in-japan?srnd=homepage-middle-east\" style=\"\">increasingly showing<\/a> interest in Japan\u2019s fast food industry. Notable investments include Carlyle Group\u2019s USD 847 mn purchase of KFC\u2019s Japan-based operations and Goldman Sachs\u2019 JPY 70 bn acquisition of the country\u2019s Burger King operations. The trend appears to be underpinned by demographic shifts and rising inflation, which make quick, convenient meals more appealing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\"> Circle your calendar<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Check out our full calendar on the web<\/strong> for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plus: India\u2019s fertilizer supply looks secure despite global volatility<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88234,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[2514,2402,2568,2949,2952,2576,2467,2401],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-fertilizers","tag-gulf-war","tag-india-iran","tag-inflation","tag-policy","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2189a1ef-f636-4d10-97b7-30bc1a19145b","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/11\/2123.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"External shocks risk derailing India\u2019s GDP","related_issue":[88231],"teaser":"Plus: India\u2019s fertilizer supply looks secure despite global volatility"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>THIS AFTERNOON: War drag could shave 1 pp off GDP growth, says EY - MENA India Corridors<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/04\/01\/this-afternoon-war-drag-could-shave-1-pp-off-gdp-growth-says-ey\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THIS AFTERNOON: War drag could shave 1 pp off GDP growth, says EY\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Plus: India\u2019s fertilizer supply 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