{"id":88153,"date":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-30T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=88153"},"modified":"2026-03-30T10:23:16","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T10:23:16","slug":"indias-cad-stands-to-triple-if-crude-prices-stay-elevated-report-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/30\/indias-cad-stands-to-triple-if-crude-prices-stay-elevated-report-says\/","title":{"rendered":"India\u2019s CAD stands to triple if crude prices stay elevated, report says"},"content":{"rendered":"

India\u2019s current account <\/strong>deficit (CAD) stands to triple to USD 70 bn if crude oil prices continue to average USD 100\/bbl this year<\/strong>, a recent SBI Funds Management rep<\/a>ort (pdf)<\/a> outlines. The report estimates that every USD 10 \/ bbl increase in oil prices could widen the CAD by around USD 15 bn.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s different this time? <\/strong>Unlike the Russian-Ukraine energy crisis in 2022 where \u201cshadow fleets\u201d and rerouting kept energy flowing, India is facing a \u201cpure supply shock\u201d with no viable workaround if the Hormuz chokehold stays in place and cuts the country off from 60% of its LNG supply.<\/p>\n

Currency risks: <\/strong>Pressure on the external account could knock the INR if capital inflows remain weak. SBI expects the currency to depreciate by 4-5% in 2026, compared with an earlier projection of 2-3%, with the INR likely to move from about INR 93 \/ USD to around INR 96 \/ USD over the next two quarters if foreign investor flows do not recover.<\/p>\n

The conflict could affect remittances, fiscal balances, and financial conditions beyond energy markets.<\/strong> A significant share of India\u2019s remittances inflows is tied to the Gulf region, with about 38% originating from the Middle East and roughly half of these flows coming from the UAE. The report also flags a weakening balance-of-payments position amid near-zero net foreign direct investment inflows, despite the CAD remaining below 2% of GDP in most years since FY 2015. <\/p>\n

And there\u2019s more: <\/strong>Rising fertilizer and gas costs are expected to weigh on government finances, with urea prices nearly 50% higher than December 2025 levels. The fertilizer subsidy requirement could increase by around INR 300 bn (USD 3.6 bn) if costs remain elevated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

India\u2019s macro stability is facing renewed energy strain as energy shocks, remittance dependence, and near-zero FDI inflows converge to pressure the INR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88154,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2647],"tags":[2514,2402,2731,2646,2687,2878],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-88153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-india-focus","tag-indian-economy","tag-inr","tag-macroeconomy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ac35a67c-dac3-493c-a8be-0d433482e70c","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1392.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"India\u2019s 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