{"id":87078,"date":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/?p=87078"},"modified":"2026-03-11T09:52:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:52:17","slug":"imf-warns-middle-east-conflict-could-add-40-bps-to-global-inflation-and-some-central-banks-are-likely-to-pause-monetary-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/mena-india\/2026\/03\/11\/imf-warns-middle-east-conflict-could-add-40-bps-to-global-inflation-and-some-central-banks-are-likely-to-pause-monetary-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF warns Middle East conflict could add 40 bps to global inflation, and some central banks are likely to pause monetary easing"},"content":{"rendered":"

The IMF is sounding the alarm on a potential o<\/strong>il-led inflation spike<\/strong>, with the Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warning on Monday that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices throughout the year would result in a 40 bps rise in global inflation, Reuters<\/a> reports. \u201cWe are seeing resilience tested again by the new conflict in the Middle East,\u201d Georgieva said, urging policymakers to \u201cthink of the unthinkable and prepare for it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Oxford Economics also sees global inflation rising by 0.3-0.4% in 4Q 2026, ac<\/strong>companied by a 0.1 percentage point dip in global growth.<\/strong> While energy price trajectories remain volatile, Oxford Economics anticipates that Brent crude will average USD 79 \/ bbl in 2Q 2026 \u2014 a USD 15 upward revision from February estimates \u2014 before potentially retreating as supply conditions normalize, according to a report seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

The most exposed regions: The UK and the Eurozone, due to their exposure to gas prices.<\/strong> The agency sees rising energy prices pushing UK inflation up by 0.5 percentage points in 4Q compared to previous forecasts. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s the prognosis on rate cuts? <\/strong>The Bank of England will likely avoid cutting interest rates at its March meeting \u2014 or beyond if energy prices remain elevated for long \u2014 though rate cuts could resume in April or June if energy prices retreat quickly. In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates at 2% throughout the year. The ECB might raise rates by 25-50 bps if the energy shock persists. <\/p>\n

As for the US Federal Reserve<\/strong>, Oxford Economics\u2019 forecasts remain unchanged, pointing toward potential interest rate cuts of 25 bps in June and September, given the energy shock is less likely to impact inflation.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

It was another morning with Asia-Pacific markets opening in the green as oil prices dipped further on hopes that the International Energy Agency will release its largest-ever stock to keep prices under control. The Kopsi was leading gains, up 3.4%, with the Nikkei trailing behind. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sensex<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

77,043<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.4% (YTD: -8.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NIFTY 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,924<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: -8.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,946<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: 0.04%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,859<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Tadawul<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +4.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47,662<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +14%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Boursa Kuwait<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,015<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.08% (YTD: -3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

QSE<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,489<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: -0.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,781<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,308<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +4.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,761<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 92.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+5.2% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.09 <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.4% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 5,188<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.06% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 69,541<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1% <\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

The values in the table above are listed according to the market position as of 3:30pm IST \/ 2pm GST.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This will happen if the current regional conflict drives oil prices up by 10% and holds them there for most of the year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87079,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2447],"tags":[2514,2402,2576,2670,2446,2546],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-87078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-india","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-planet-finance","tag-us-federal-reserve","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4c2ae20c-a63c-4f9c-b67e-a5328aa05c0f","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/576.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF 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