{"id":95481,"date":"2026-05-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=95481"},"modified":"2026-05-04T06:20:57","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T06:20:57","slug":"how-did-air-cargo-keep-moving-during-the-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/05\/04\/how-did-air-cargo-keep-moving-during-the-war\/","title":{"rendered":"How did air cargo keep moving during the war?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yes<\/strong> \u2014 <\/strong>the<\/strong> regional disruptions didn\u2019t stop air freight from <\/strong>moving, but it did <\/strong>redirect it<\/strong> \u2014 prioritizing urgency, avoiding exposed Gulf hubs, and using every lever available to keep critical cargo moving.<\/p>\n

Was it a full standstill? Not quite. <\/strong>\u201cThe war did not completely stop MENA air cargo \u2014 what it did was temporarily break the normal Gulf hub-and-spoke model,\u201d Wouter Dewulf, professor of Air Transport Management and Economics at the University of Antwerp, tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

The region moved from an optimized network to an emergency triage model <\/strong>\u2014 prioritizing critical cargo, rerouting what can still move, holding or deferring lower-priority cargo, and using secondary gateways, plus trucking, sea-air, and landbridge options, to complete the last leg, Dewulf adds.<\/p>\n

The<\/strong> data backs the break:<\/strong> Global air cargo demand fell<\/a> 4.8% y-o-y in March, with capacity down 4.7%, but the shock was concentrated in the Middle East. Regional carriers saw demand collapse 54.3% and capacity fall 52.4% \u2014 the weakest performance globally \u2014 while exposed Europe\u2013Middle East and Middle East\u2013Asia lanes dropped 57.6% and 58.6%.<\/p>\n

Priority first, everything else waits<\/p>\n

Cargo quickly became a hierarchy:<\/strong> \u201cEverything \u2014 from pharma to military lift and humanitarian aid \u2014 as well as any type of premium contract freight had the priority,\u201d Guillermo Ochovo, director at Cargo Facts Consulting, tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

The pressure point was cargo dependent on Gulf transfer reliability. <\/strong>\u201cMost at risk of being stranded were shipments already inside disrupted Gulf hubs, low-yield general cargo, non-urgent e-commerce, perishables without priority status, and any freight requiring a reliable connection through Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi,\u201d Dewulf says.<\/p>\n

The vulnerability <\/strong>sits<\/strong> within the system itself <\/strong>\u2014 more than one-fifth of global air cargo flows are exposed to Middle East disruption, with over 10% directly reliant on the region\u2019s hubs for transfer. The exposure is even sharper on Europe-Asia lanes, where roughly 30% to over 50% of flows depend on the region as a transit spine, Dewulf adds.<\/p>\n

Freighters first, bypasses second<\/p>\n

Freighters recovered before passenger aircraft:<\/strong> By the second week of March, cargo planes were back in motion while passenger fleets lagged, Ochovo says.<\/p>\n

Europe stepped around the disruption, not into it:<\/strong> Asia-Europe capacity rose 38% as carriers bypassed the Middle East. The shift was tactical, not structural, Dewulf argues \u2014 while narrow-body belly capacity offered only a limited, temporary fix.<\/p>\n

Narrow-body belly capacity filled some gaps <\/strong>\u2014 but only temporarily, and only for smaller loads.<\/p>\n

No hub, no problem<\/p>\n

Resilience favored those who could reconfigure the map in real time. <\/strong>\u201cThe most effective operators were not necessarily the largest airlines in normal times, but those with the most routing flexibility,\u201d Dewulf notes, pointing to global forwarders, integrators, pharma logistics specialists, and freighter operators with access to alternative gateways.<\/p>\n

Because the fix wasn\u2019t just in the air: <\/strong>\u201cKuehne+Nagel, Marken, DHL, GEODIS, and others stood out because they could stitch together air, road, ocean, and customs solutions instead of relying on a single hub. Flights shifted into Jeddah, Riyadh, and Oman, with cargo moving onward by land,\u201d he explains.<\/p>\n

No single hub replaced the Gulf giants. <\/strong>Instead, the system fragmented: airlift into secondary gateways like Jeddah, Riyadh, Muscat, and Istanbul, followed by bonded trucking into the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and beyond. Cargo kept moving \u2014 just not the way it used to.<\/p>\n

The rerouting map<\/p>\n

The new cargo map? <\/strong>The crisis expanded the geography of air cargo \u2014 with the Asia to Europe freighter capacity rising<\/a> by almost 21.5% in March \u2014 a sign that volumes once funneled through the Middle East are now surfacing across Central Asia.<\/p>\n

Istanbul held its role \u2014 but the shift spread far beyond a single hub. <\/strong>\u201cIstanbul is an exception because a lot was rerouted through it, but other hubs that saw significant gains in capacity and traffic included Baku, Tbilisi, Tashkent, Almaty, and Astana,\u201d Ochovo adds.<\/p>\n

The<\/strong> rerouting showed up in the numbers:<\/strong> Europe-Asia cargo volumes rose<\/a> 14.2%, Africa-Asia climbed 22.6%, and Asia-Pacific carriers still posted 5.4% demand growth.<\/p>\n

Backup hubs step in<\/p>\n

Oman\u2019s role shifted fast \u2014 largely because it sat outside the most disrupted Gulf <\/strong>triangle<\/strong>, with the Sultanate seeing its throughput climb 160-170% of previous traffic levels.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s gateways proved comparatively steady: <\/strong>Riyadh and Jeddah retained 70%-80% capacity, while others dropped sharply: Doha to around 10%, Dubai to 35%, Abu Dhabi to just under 30%, with Bahrain and Kuwait trailing further behind.<\/p>\n

Still, these were shock absorbers \u2014 not replacements. <\/strong>\u201cThey absorbed emergency flows \u2014 they didn\u2019t replace Dubai, Doha, or Abu Dhabi,\u201d Dewulf says, pointing to the Gulf\u2019s deeply integrated cargo ecosystems.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s role came down to timing and availability.<\/strong> As Gulf airspace tightened, Egypt remained largely untouched \u2014 \u201cnot affected at all,\u201d Ochovo says \u2014 allowing capacity to climb 14% in March and a further 10% in early April.<\/p>\n

That positioned Cairo as a secondary release valve<\/strong>, absorbing displaced cargo and offering a nearer alternative to longer diversions. It lacks the efficiency of the Gulf\u2019s major hubs \u2014 but in a constrained network, available capacity made it a viable redistribution point and refuelling stop.<\/p>\n

When fuel sets the limits<\/p>\n

Fuel became the chokepoint: <\/strong>\u201cIt\u2019s the constraint that can reshape the entire freighter market,\u201d Ochovo notes, as parked aircraft rose 10%-11% from February to March \u2014 and kept climbing as marginal routes were cut.<\/p>\n

Older, less efficient aircraft were hit hardest: <\/strong>\u201cThere are very old aircraft that are very inefficient to operate because they either use four engines or they use a lot of fuel,\u201d he notes. Meanwhile, longer reroutings imposed payload penalties and forced additional stops through alternative hubs. The economics shifted accordingly: higher fuel costs fed into surcharges, but more importantly, into choice. With capacity constrained, carriers prioritized what was worth flying \u2014 and left lower-yield cargo behind.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% y-o-y in March, with capacity down 4.7%<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95482,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[966],"tags":[145,122,17,965],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-95481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-aviation","tag-cargo","tag-enterprise-logistics","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"95105773-30f4-416d-b15e-4fc72be645b5","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/834.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Cargo, crisis, and continuity","related_issue":[95476],"teaser":"Global air cargo demand fell 4.8% y-o-y in March, with capacity down 4.7%","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nHow did air cargo keep moving during the war? 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