{"id":94905,"date":"2026-04-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=94905"},"modified":"2026-04-20T06:27:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T06:27:14","slug":"gulf-oil-exporters-weigh-working-around-the-workaround","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/04\/20\/gulf-oil-exporters-weigh-working-around-the-workaround\/","title":{"rendered":"Gulf oil exporters weigh working around the workaround"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n

Strait<\/strong> to pay or build a way?<\/strong> Gulf oil exporters are being pushed into a stark choice \u2014 pay the toll or play the workaround. What\u2019s shaping up as an effective blockade of Hormuz has turned a geographic constraint into a pricing lever, with Iran signaling that passage depends on coordination \u2014 and, in some cases, payment.<\/p>\n

Volatility around the strait is the name of the game.<\/strong> After signaling the opening<\/a> of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, Iran made a U-turn less than 24 hours later, shutting<\/a> the waterway again, citing a US breach of the truce by maintaining a blockade<\/a> on Iranian ports. Tankers have been fired on<\/a> while attempting to pass, while some were able to transit<\/a> during the brief reopening window.<\/p>\n

Demanding the right to control: <\/strong>Iranian authorities have framed<\/a> their control as including the right to demand payment for \"security, safety, and environmental protection\u201d services. Hormuz remains one of the key lagging and unresolved issues in negotiations.<\/p>\n

Rules are <\/strong>on<\/strong> paper, power is at sea:<\/strong> Under the UN Convention on the Law of the<\/a>Sea (pdf)<\/a>, vessels are entitled to unimpeded \u201ctransit passage\u201d through straits like Hormuz \u2014 constraining a coastal state\u2019s ability to interfere or levy charges. In practice, however, there is no direct enforcement mechanism \u2014 leaving any challenge to be pursued through diplomatic pressure or sanctions rather than binding adjudication.<\/p>\n

The market is already testing what this could look like.<\/strong> Under a hypothetical structured toll regime charging a flat USD 2 mn per tanker<\/a> \u2014 applied to pre-war volumes of 50 ships per day<\/a> \u2014 annual revenues could approach USD 37 bn, assuming no diversion from the route. In a downside scenario, pricing the toll at USD 1 \/ bbl<\/a> and assuming only half of Hormuz\u2019s 20 mn bbl \/ d is captured would reduce annual revenues to nearly USD 3.7 bn.<\/p>\n

The pressure point sits in the long-term bill:<\/strong> Even the low-end scenario compounds into some USD 54 bn<\/a> in present value over 25 years, discounted using Saudi Arabia\u2019s 10-year borrowing costs (averaged at around 5%) as a benchmark.<\/p>\n

The scramble for routes<\/p>\n

The backup pipeline hero:<\/strong> Saudi Arabia\u2019s 1.2k-km East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu effectively stepped in to save the day as the Kingdom\u2019s release valve \u2014 ramping flows toward its 7 mn bbl \/ d capacity.<\/p>\n

Another backup could come off the bench: <\/strong>Iraq is now reportedly<\/a> working with Saudi to revive the long-idled pipeline linking Basra to Yanbu, a 1.6k-km route with 1.6 mn bbl \/ d capacity that has been offline since the 1990s. Estimates suggest that rehabilitating the pipeline would require between USD 2.4-3.9 bn<\/a>, based on the cost of oil pipelines previously built in the region, and that rehabilitation costs are half of construction costs.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just a partial fix that shifts the chokepoint west: <\/strong>With Yanbu pushing crude to the Red Sea, flows are still being exposed at Bab Al Mandab, where the Houthis pose a risk<\/a> to shipping \u2014 as we\u2019ve seen in the Red Sea scare. It\u2019s the same workaround we keep running back to: rerouting doesn\u2019t remove the risk, it just shifts exposure.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the real endgame being discussed goes beyond bypassing both chokepoints <\/strong>entirely. <\/strong>\u201cThe stalled Mediterranean pipelines are the key to accessing Europe, and a poised Indian Ocean pipeline is the key to accessing Asia. Whoever possesses both has the ability to export to half the world without relying on a single passage,\u201d says<\/a> Abi Aad, CEO of Petroleb and senior energy advisor at the Gulf Research Center.<\/p>\n

The Europe-bound route:<\/strong> The route, which operates via the Mediterranean, is based on rehabilitating the historic Trans-Arabian Pipeline<\/a> to move crude from Saudi to Jordan, then Syria to Lebanon. It also involves reviving the Kirkuk-Baniyas<\/a> pipeline from fields in Iraq to the Syrian port \u2014 replacing the need for trucking<\/a> \u2014 alongside the Kirkuk-Ceyhan<\/a> and Basra-Ceyhan<\/a> pipelines to Turkey. If reactivated, this network could reduce shipping costs to Europe by some 40% compared to the Suez Canal route.<\/p>\n

The Asia-bound route:<\/strong> One proposed solution by the Baker Institute (pdf)<\/a> envisions a twin 56-inch pipeline stretching from southern Iraq through Kuwait and along the Gulf coast, collecting supply from Saudi and the UAE before terminating at the Omani ports of Duqm and Salalah. Capacity could reach 10 mn bbl \/ d \u2014 sending crude directly into the Indian Ocean toward Asian buyers.<\/p>\n

Buying the way to the east would be estimated at around USD 55 bn<\/strong>, with construction and pumping stations alone costing some USD 18 bn, with another USD 12 bn in development, USD 7 bn in contingency, USD 8 bn for new export terminals, and USD 10 bn to harden infrastructure with missile defense systems.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the catch:<\/strong> Somehow, the total cost of building that system roughly matches the present value of 25 years of low-end toll payments to Iran. That\u2019s before factoring in higher toll scenarios \u2014 and the strategic value of not having to rely on an adversary.<\/p>\n

What the price buys is resilience, not immunity:<\/strong> Gulf pipelines can be hardened \u2014 with<\/a> Patriot batteries to intercept missiles or Sam systems to counter drones \u2014 but they can\u2019t be invulnerable. The vulnerability lies in pumping stations, compressor nodes, control systems, and export terminals \u2014 all of which are sitting ducks \u2014 not the pipe itself. A single strike on a pumping station had cut<\/a> around 700k bbl \/ d from Saudi\u2019s East-West line.<\/p>\n

The trade-off is moving from chokepoint risk to network risk<\/strong>, with known targets spread across \u2014 which makes it harder (pdf)<\/a> to shutdown completely. The upside is recovery \u2014 Saudi restored full pipeline capacity within days \u2014 but the downside is persistent vulnerability. The network won\u2019t be built to avoid attacks, but to keep working through them.<\/p>\n

Pay now, build later?<\/p>\n

This<\/strong> leaves Gulf producers stuck in an uncomfortable middle phase:<\/strong> Even if they greenlight new pipelines for the future, construction timelines could stretch up to seven years, meaning toll payments to Iran are unavoidable in the near term \u2014 if the situation doesn\u2019t de-escalate. Exporters may end up financing both their workaround and the system they\u2019re trying to escape.<\/p>\n

The signal<\/p>\n

Why this matters: <\/strong>It is a test of whether Gulf exporters can keep monetizing hydrocarbons when their main outlet is no longer commercially neutral. Once passage through the strait starts looking like something that can be priced, negotiated, or restricted by an \u201cadversary,\u201d the issue stops being maritime risk and becomes structural exposure \u2014 the cost of not building starts to look higher than the cost of building.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe crisis has made visible what was previously hidden:<\/strong> in an interconnected world, resilience is not a luxury; it is the entry ticket to lasting growth,\u201d Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

The next chapter is likely to run on two tracks at once:<\/strong> short-term dependence on available routes and whatever terms will be arranged, while longer-term pipeline ideas move into feasibility studies and cost-sharing talks.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey [the Gulf and the countries that buy from them] now have a chance to turn a crisis <\/strong>of chokepoints into a project of shared corridors<\/strong>, built not only to move oil and gas, but to lower risk for all,\u201d Lehmacher told us.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

No straight path through the strait<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94944,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[966],"tags":[17,995,119,35,142,740,31,965],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-94905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-enterprise-logistics","tag-gulf-crude","tag-iran","tag-iraq","tag-oman","tag-pipelines","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f7682119-9728-492a-9c1e-2f70c5cad3df","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Pay for the strait or reroute its fate","related_issue":[94900],"teaser":"No straight path through the strait","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nGulf oil exporters weigh working around the workaround - 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