{"id":94546,"date":"2026-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=94546"},"modified":"2026-04-08T06:35:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T06:35:07","slug":"refined-fuels-are-where-the-hit-lands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/04\/08\/refined-fuels-are-where-the-hit-lands\/","title":{"rendered":"Refined fuels are where the hit lands"},"content":{"rendered":"

The oil market is heading toward a problem it can\u2019t price its <\/strong>way out of<\/strong>, as disruptions in the Gulf create a mismatch between global demand and available fuel supply.<\/p>\n

Two buffers are cushioning the shock \u2014 higher prices and inventory drawdowns. <\/strong>The adjustment so far has come from price-reducing demand and inventories filling the shortfall, which is why the shock is showing up more in prices than empty pumps. But neither mechanism can absorb a deficit of this scale for long, according to a research briefing (pdf)<\/a> by Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n

The price signal is working on demand \u2014 just weakly:<\/strong> Short-run oil demand is barely responsive to price, with elasticity around -0.03 \u2014 meaning a 1% rise in prices cuts demand by just 0.03%. Even with Brent up 79%, that only trims global demand by roughly 2.4 mn bbl \/ d in 2Q. It helps at the margin, but leaves most of the shock unabsorbed, with around 10 mn bbl \/ d still missing from supply since the war began.<\/p>\n

The adjustment is hitting the margins, not the core:<\/strong> Higher prices are mostly cutting discretionary use, not essential demand. That keeps the system running, but it doesn\u2019t solve the underlying mismatch between supply and demand.<\/p>\n

The constraint shifts from crude to products<\/p>\n

The strain is more acute in refined products: <\/strong>\u201cI think refining bottlenecks are the biggest constraint. Strategic reserves and inventory drawdowns are offsetting supply loss, but those buffers are being depleted. Refineries have already cut run rates, particularly those who process heavier Middle Eastern grades,\u201d Bridget Payne, head of oil and gas forecasting at Oxford Economics, tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Diesel is the pressure point:<\/strong> Freight, agriculture, construction, rail, and industry all depend on it, with few near-term substitutes. Demand here barely responds to price, which is exactly why shortages hit harder. \u201cEmerging economies that are the most price-sensitive are likely to be the hardest hit,\u201c Payne told us.<\/p>\n

Jet fuel is one of the few release valves:<\/strong> Air travel is more discretionary, and fuel costs quickly pass into ticket prices, lowering demand. Aviation absorbs some of the shock early, but it\u2019s too small a share of total demand to rebalance the system on its own.<\/p>\n

Shipping doesn\u2019t really adjust, it just slows down:<\/strong> Bunker fuel demand is highly inelastic, with operators cutting speed rather than eliminating consumption \u2014 which preserves demand, but reduces effective transport capacity. For Egypt, this is a double-edged sword: slower transit speeds directly threaten Suez Canal throughput and revenue as global shipping cycles lengthen.<\/p>\n

Safe\u2026 for a while:<\/strong> \u201cFor now, households and ordinary businesses are partly protected because airlines, utilities, and suppliers locked in prices earlier through contracts. It does not help if physical shortages start to appear, and once those contracts expire, the pain will become much more visible,\u201d Payne added. In markets like Egypt<\/a> and Jordan<\/a>, that visible pain hits national budgets and subsidy programs long before it reaches the pump.<\/p>\n

Running out of buffers<\/p>\n

Inventories are buying time, not solving the problem: <\/strong>Countries have been drawing down crude and refined stocks to maintain supply, delaying visible shortages. That\u2019s why the adjustment has so far been economic \u2014 through prices \u2014 rather than physical. But this is a temporary buffer.<\/p>\n

Even the headline inventory numbers overstate the cushion:<\/strong> The IEA pegs global observed stocks at over 8.2 bn bbl \u2014 but not all of that is accessible, with operational minimums, refining constraints, and logistics all limiting what can actually reach the market. The 400 mn bbl release helps, but in flow terms adds only around 2-3 mn bbl \/ d.<\/p>\n

There are also wrong barrels in the wrong form:<\/strong> Middle Eastern crude is heavier and better suited for diesel and jet fuel, while strategic releases include lighter grades. So even when crude is available, the products that matter most remain tight. \u201cThere is some flexibility, but not enough to fully make up the difference quickly,\u201d Payne said.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s next<\/p>\n

What\u2019s left is the gap:<\/strong> After price and inventories do their part, some 2 mn bbl \/ d of demand still won\u2019t be covered. The gap widens the longer the disruption lasts, as inventories drain and price loses effectiveness. \u201cThat gap is made up of rationing and shortages,\u201d Payne told us.<\/p>\n

In a prolonged war scenario, rationing becomes systemic \u2014 and the macro breaks.<\/strong> If disruption extends through September and expands to the Red Sea, pipelines, and production facilities in the Gulf, demand would need to be rationed. Oxford Economics estimates that such a scenario would push the global economy into a recession, with GDP growth slowing to 1.4%.<\/p>\n

Rationing means fuel is no longer allocated by price, but by restriction.<\/strong> Instead of buyers getting what they can afford, access is capped through quotas, priority allocation, or outright shortages.<\/p>\n

Even without further supply losses, we\u2019re getting close:<\/strong> \u201cRight now, the shortfall is around 2% of global oil demand, equivalent to a modest reduction in road transport and fewer flights. By June, I estimate that it will rise to 7.5% of global oil demand, more than the total oil consumption of India,\u201d Payne noted.<\/p>\n

The system is absorbing the shock through two buffers<\/strong> \u2014 price spikes and inventories <\/strong>\u2014 which are limited.<\/strong> If the war drags on, we move into a third stage of physical shortage and rationing, which is much nastier since it directly hits real economic activity. Trucks won\u2019t move, machinery won\u2019t run, construction slows, factories lose output, and shipping capacity tightens.<\/p>\n

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The adjustment to the shock has come from price-reducing demand and inventories filling the shortfall<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"single-feature.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[998],"tags":[49,17,997,32],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-94546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-explainer","tag-egypt","tag-enterprise-logistics","tag-explainer","tag-trade","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"57f77811-40d8-4b56-b93e-36dc66cc7457","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/4\/257.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Buffers are running out","related_issue":[94538],"teaser":"The adjustment to the shock has come from price-reducing demand and inventories filling the shortfall","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"\nRefined fuels are where the hit lands - 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