{"id":94111,"date":"2026-03-26T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=94111"},"modified":"2026-03-26T06:43:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T06:43:18","slug":"today-war-traps-natgas-oil-finds-a-way-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/03\/26\/today-war-traps-natgas-oil-finds-a-way-out\/","title":{"rendered":"TODAY: War traps natgas, oil finds a way out"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, friends. <\/strong>We\u2019re heading into the weekend with a balanced read. The Iran war is reshaping energy markets in less obvious ways, with natural gas \u2014 not oil \u2014 taking the bigger hit as supply tightens and agreements get harder to strike. Hormuz disruptions are also starting to squeeze jet fuel flows, and airlines are already feeling it \u2014 but the question is, how long can operations hold if the supply crunch deepens?<\/p>\n

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The big story abroad<\/p>\n

Washington <\/strong>maintains<\/a><\/strong> that peace talks with Iran are ongoing<\/strong>, despite Tehran roundly rejecting the ceasefire proposal put forward by the Trump administration. The Islamic Republic is reportedly looking to secure assurances that the US-Israeli assault will not resume, reparations for war-related damage, and recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n

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From the Dept. of Ongoing Disruptions<\/p>\n

EVENTS<\/strong> \u2014 Plans put on hold:<\/strong> Dubai\u2019s Marine Money<\/a> event \u2014 originally scheduled for 26 March \u2014 has been postponed in light of recent developments in the region. No new date has been announced by the organizers yet. <\/p>\n

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Watch this space<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/strong>LNG<\/strong> \u2014 Qatar\u2019s LNG disruption is now spilling into contracts:<\/strong> QatarEnergy said it needs to declare<\/a> force majeure on some affected long-term LNG contracts \u2014 including buyers from Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China.<\/p>\n

The physical hit was already severe:<\/strong> Two LNG trains at Ras Laffan are offline after Iranian<\/a>strikes<\/a> took around 12.8 mtpa out of commission, roughly 17% of Qatar\u2019s LNG export capacity. Qatar\u2019s share<\/a> in the market makes it especially hard to absorb, since it\u2019s the world\u2019s second biggest exporter of LNG.<\/p>\n

Can Algeria fill Qatar\u2019s shoes? <\/strong>Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is looking<\/a> to Algeria for substitute gas supplies after Qatar\u2019s force majeure<\/a> affected its LNG contract with Italy. Qatar accounted for about 33% of Italy\u2019s LNG imports last year. <\/p>\n

Why Algeria? It\u2019s the fastest pipe option Italy knows how to use.<\/strong> Algeria is already Italy\u2019s main gas supplier, covering around 36% of annual gas needs<\/a> last year, with flows anchored by the TransMed pipeline. The two parties signed<\/a> a fresh batch of agreements last July worth some EUR 14 bn, including in energy.<\/p>\n

Algeria may be the logical substitute, but not an unlimited one.<\/strong> Analysts have flagged<\/a> that Algeria may have trouble meeting demand as its domestic demand rises. Rome is also talking to the US and Azerbaijan instead of relying on Algeria as a full replacement.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/strong>M&As \u2014 <\/strong>Canada\u2019s<\/strong> pipeline push is starting to pull Gulf capital into the <\/strong>room.<\/strong> Middle Eastern sovereign funds and Asian investors have shown early-stage interest in taking minority stakes in a proposed 1 mn bpd crude pipeline to British Columbia\u2019s northwest coast, ahead of a planned federal fast-track request in June, Reuters<\/a> reports, citing comments by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. The project remains uncommitted, but reflects Canada\u2019s efforts to diversify exports toward Asia and away from the US, which still takes around 90% of its crude exports.<\/p>\n

Why now? <\/strong>The war has increased the strategic value of oil and gas supplies that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, as disruptions there tighten global markets. At CERAWeek, Alberta is positioning itself as a secure and geopolitically stable energy supplier, just as higher prices and supply risks boost demand for Canadian exports.<\/p>\n

At the same time<\/strong>, both Ottawa and Alberta are working to accelerate project approvals and expand export infrastructure<\/a>, particularly pipelines to the Pacific Coast. This creates a chance for Middle Eastern investors to diversify geographically, gaining exposure to stable North American production while reducing reliance on Hormuz-linked export routes.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/strong>ENERGY<\/strong> \u2014 Japan is moving deeper into emergency mode. <\/strong>Tokyo will start releasing<\/a> crude from its national reserves today, while releases from joint stockpiles held with producing nations are scheduled by the end of March, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said in a post on X<\/a>. The move will take Japan\u2019s total contribution to the International Energy Agency emergency release to nearly 80 mn barrels of crude, as the Hormuz disruption keeps pressing on Asian importers.<\/p>\n

Asia feeling the pressure:<\/strong> Missing Gulf barrels hurt Asia first<\/a>, and the fallback options are weak. Alternative supply from Brazil, West Africa, and North America can soften the blow, but would not close the gap, especially once buyers start competing for cargoes that take longer to ship and often do not match Gulf crude quality.<\/p>\n

\n

Market watch<\/p>\n

Oil prices rose over USD 1 per barrel this morning \u2014 rebounding as prolonged Middle <\/strong>East tensions threaten energy flows, <\/strong>Reuters<\/a> reports. Brent crude futures gained USD 1.65 to USD 103.87 \/ bbl by 04.24 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased USD 1.49 to USD 91.81 \/ bbl.<\/p>\n

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The Baltic Index breaks losing streak: <\/strong>The Baltic Exchange\u2019s dry bulk index \u2014 which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments \u2014 increased 0.7%<\/a> to 2,001 points on Wednesday. The capesize gained 2.5% to 2,915 points, while the panamax index slipped 2.6% to 1,796. The smaller supramax declined 0.6% to 1,208 points.<\/p>\n

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What we\u2019re tracking this morning regionally and around the world<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94112,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[980],"tags":[17,35,227,983,153,16],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-94111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today-2","tag-enterprise-logistics","tag-iraq","tag-lng","tag-oil-gas","tag-qatar","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bb32a12b-b03b-4e80-9949-66e99dbaf1e3","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/1250.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"TODAY: War traps natgas, oil finds a way out","related_issue":[94109],"teaser":"What we\u2019re tracking this morning regionally and around the world"},"yoast_head":"\nTODAY: War traps natgas, oil finds a way out - 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