{"id":92698,"date":"2026-03-09T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=92698"},"modified":"2026-03-09T06:23:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:23:43","slug":"could-hormuz-closure-disrupt-global-crop-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/03\/09\/could-hormuz-closure-disrupt-global-crop-yields\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Hormuz closure disrupt global crop yields?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Yes<\/strong><strong> \u2014 Hormuz matters for way more than oil &amp; gas: <\/strong>Roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kpler.com\/blog\/global-fertiliser-dependency-on-gulf-exports-what-if-hormuz-is-disrupted\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one-third<\/a> of global fertilizer shipments pass through the strait, linking Gulf production hubs with agricultural markets worldwide. With shipping through Hormuz disrupted, fertilizer markets are already repricing the risk \u2014 raising the prospect of higher crop input costs and, eventually, food prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Nitrogen fertilizers are the driver of modern agriculture. <\/strong>Methane is converted into ammonia and then upgraded into urea and other nitrogen products used to boost crop yields. Around half of global food production depends on synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/rrapier\/2026\/03\/01\/beyond-oil-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-global-food-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">180 mn<\/a> metric tons consumed globally each year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Why this<\/strong> <strong>matters<\/strong><strong>? <\/strong>The Gulf dominates the market, and nearly all of its output must move through Hormuz. Around 55-60 mn metric tons of urea are shipped by sea annually, with the Middle East accounting for some <a href=\"https:\/\/gpcachem.org\/2024\/04\/26\/product-in-focus-urea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">40-50%<\/a> of that volume. Iran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/rrapier\/2026\/03\/01\/beyond-oil-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-global-food-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">exports<\/a> some 5 mn tons, while Saudi Arabia contributes some 4-5 mn tons through producers like Sabic.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Energy shocks have amplified the pressure since <\/strong><strong>natgas<\/strong><strong> is the main input for nitrogen <\/strong><strong>fertilizers. \u201c<\/strong>Natural gas\u2019 key role as a fertilizer input could hit agricultural producers, impacting food prices,\u201d MENA Director at Horizon Engage Andrew G. Farrand told EnterpriseAM. Qatar\u2019s shutdown of the Ras Laffan LNG export facility sent reverberations through the industry. Qatar accounts for roughly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-02\/iran-war-snarls-key-global-hub-for-fertilizer-supplies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">11%<\/a> of global urea exports, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Alexis Maxwell. The country exports some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/rrapier\/2026\/03\/01\/beyond-oil-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-the-global-food-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5.5-6 mn<\/a> tons of urea and ammonia annually from its Qafco complex.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Markets reax: <\/strong>Prices for granular urea surged by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-03-02\/iran-war-snarls-key-global-hub-for-fertilizer-supplies\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USD 60<\/a> per metric ton after the effective closure of the strait. In the US Gulf, spot for urea jumped USD 60-80 from last week, with traders warning that increases could follow if disruptions persist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Supply chains were already tight before the conflict escalated:<\/strong> Urea markets turned bullish <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifpri.org\/blog\/global-fertilizer-trade-2021-2023-what-happened-after-war-related-price-spikes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">earlier<\/a> after drone damage hit a Russian nitrogen plant, tightening availability. The US, despite producing domestically, still relies on imports from the Middle East that transit Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Fertilizers may not even be the first agricultural bottleneck to bite:<\/strong> For some high-tech growers, specialty inputs such as pollinators and biological pest-control supplies can become harder to replace before fertilizer shortages become tight. That means prolonged disruption can start weighing on yields through the wider agricultural input chain, not through urea prices alone.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Adding fuel to the fire, the EU <\/strong><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.h2-view.com\/story\/eu-dismisses-cbam-suspension-for-fertilisers-follow-hydrogen-lobby-pressure\/2138098.article\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">announced<\/a><\/strong><strong> that it will keep carbon levies on imported <\/strong><strong>fertilizers <\/strong>under its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), rejecting calls to suspend the scheme despite concerns it could push up costs for farmers. \u201cThe decision is ill-timed, especially given the repercussions of the ongoing war, the rising energy prices, and the halt in urea production from Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia \u2014 the largest gas exporters. Therefore, prices will rise much higher than the ETS carbon price increase,\" Osama Henein, H2lligence founder and CEO, told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The impact on the food supply chain<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The hit to food supply in our region may not be immediate: <\/strong>Gulf growers carry several weeks \u2014 five to eight \u2014 of core inputs on hand, including fertilizers, helping cushion short disruptions, CEO of Pure Harvest Sky Kurtz told EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>That does not mean it\u2019s not building:<\/strong> \u201cWe would start to feel pain after a period of time if there were complete blockages and we couldn't get goods through the borders,\u201d Kurtz told us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>But retailers are already scrambling to reinforce food supply chains:<\/strong> UAE retailer Lulu Group <a href=\"https:\/\/gulfnews.com\/business\/retail\/lulu-brings-fresh-food-to-uae-on-chartered-cargo-flights-to-secure-store-supplies-1.500466321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">began<\/a> chartering cargo flights to secure the food supply chain, with a freighter that carried some 80 metric tons of fruits and vegetables from India landing in Abu Dhabi. Additional shipments are being arranged.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Fertilizer is not the only industrial commodity exposed<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>The Gulf has also become a major <\/strong><strong>aluminum<\/strong><strong> production hub<\/strong>, accounting for more than 8% of global output and shipping over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/risks-western-aluminium-supply-rise-iran-war-escalates-2026-03-03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5 mn<\/a> metric tons of metal through Hormuz annually from smelters in Bahrain, Qatar, KSA, and the UAE. Aluminium Bahrain <a href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/03\/05\/conflict-spreads-into-different-countries-and-more-sectors\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recently<\/a> declared force majeure, after Qatari smelter Qatalum said it was shutting down operations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Export disruptions are already appearing in the metals market: <\/strong>Regional aluminum producers have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fastmarkets.com\/insights\/strait-of-hormuz-lifts-commodity-freight-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">warned<\/a> customers of delays, with war-risk premiums increased or canceled. Western buyers are already stressed, coping with reduced access to Russian aluminum and shrinking inventories on the London Metal Exchange.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\"><strong>Alternative export routes may offer limited relief: <\/strong>Traders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fastmarkets.com\/insights\/strait-of-hormuz-lifts-commodity-freight-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">say<\/a> trucking aluminum to ports outside the Gulf \u2014 such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia \u2014 would require an impractical number of trucks running continuously to move equivalent volumes. The same logic applies across agriculture, where alternative routes exist, but they also raise costs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding: 0;margin: 0;line-height: 1.15;text-align: left\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Supply was already limited before the crisis, so disruptions make the shortage worse<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[966],"tags":[17,124,965,32,129],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-92698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-enterprise-logistics","tag-supply-chains","tag-the-big-story-today","tag-trade","tag-uae","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ce68d209-c37d-45d6-b70b-ba26b2ca74c7","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/467.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Another commodity that regional escalation could hit","related_issue":[92693],"teaser":"Supply was already limited before the crisis, so disruptions make the shortage worse","photo_link":"","related_sponsor":"","voice_url":"","en_translation_ref_id":"","section_story_id":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Could Hormuz closure disrupt global crop yields? - Logistics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/03\/09\/could-hormuz-closure-disrupt-global-crop-yields\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Could Hormuz closure disrupt global crop yields?\" \/>\n<meta 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