{"id":92362,"date":"2026-03-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=92362"},"modified":"2026-03-02T15:16:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T15:16:30","slug":"how-will-the-widening-regional-conflict-affect-logistics-in-the-region","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2026\/03\/02\/how-will-the-widening-regional-conflict-affect-logistics-in-the-region\/","title":{"rendered":"How will the widening regional conflict affect logistics in the region?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Three days in, and the region\u2019s logistics channels are already under strain in the wake of the US-Israeli <\/strong>attack on Iran.<\/strong> While it is still too early to assess true economic impact, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is thinning, ports are tightening security, and airlines are rerouting and suspending flights. <\/p>\n

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What to watch: Chokepoints under stress<\/p>\n

Maritime traffic is grinding to a halt. <\/strong>Oil tanker movements through Hormuz have been halted<\/a>, with roughly 240 vessels stopping near the chokepoint \u2014 most around Iran\u2019s Bandar Abbas port. Around 130 of those ships were carrying cargo, but none loaded with crude. At present, total AIS traffic, not including dark transits, is down some 80% through the strait, according to data<\/a> from maritime risk analyst firm EOS Marine.<\/p>\n

Three ships were <\/strong>struck<\/a><\/strong> yesterday<\/strong>, including one hit by an unidentified projectile<\/a> northwest of the UAE\u2019s Mina Saqr in Ras Al Khaimah. A second strike reportedly hit a vessel near Sharjah, though its crew was all found to be safe, CNBC Arabia<\/a> reports. Another incident took place near Oman as a small tanker, Skylight, which appears to be under US sanctions, was hit off its northern coast, with one crew member killed<\/a>. <\/p>\n

Containerships ar<\/strong>e<\/strong> also caught in the bottleneck, <\/strong>with around 170 containerships carrying a combined capacity of 450k TEUs \u2014 some 1.4% of the global maritime fleet \u2014 currently inside the strait, Linerlytica co-founder Hua Joo Tan said<\/a>. At least 15 containerships either entering or exiting Hormuz have reversed course. <\/p>\n

A <\/strong>full Hormuz closure<\/a><\/strong> would be very painful. <\/strong>Hormuz is the primary export route for crude and condensate pumped by Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, with tankers carrying 16.5 mn barrels per day (bbl \/ d) through the strait in 2024. The strait handles roughly 80% of the kingdom\u2019s oil exports. Saudi Arabia has one key bypass: the 1.2k km East-West pipeline that stretches from Abqaiq near the Arabian Gulf to a Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, which has a capacity of up to 5 mn bbl \/ day, expandable by an additional 2 mn bbl \/ day on short notice.<\/p>\n

Pundits think the strait won\u2019t be closed off for long: <\/strong>\u201cIf the Strait of Hormuz were to close, the most likely scenario is that it would be temporary, potentially lasting one to two weeks,\u201d Rystad Energy\u2019s Jorge Leon tells EnterpriseAM, adding that a prolonged closure would carry severe geopolitical consequences and likely provoke a rapid international response. \u201cThat said, even a short-lived disruption would create a significant logistical backlog.\u201d<\/p>\n

Risk perceptions are also rising further south:<\/strong> Shipping lines could be spooked further if the Houthis follow through on their threat to \u201cresume missile and drone attacks, making the Red Sea a standing variable in Tehran\u2019s escalation toolkit,\u201d former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum Wolfgang Lehmacher tells EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

Any Houthi strikes would resonate beyond the Bab al Mandeb strait<\/strong>, shaping perceptions of risk from Suez to Hormuz and forcing carriers to recalibrate already thin buffers in global container and tanker fleets, Lehmacher said.<\/p>\n

Most major shipping lines are already steering clear of the Suez Canal<\/strong> \u2014 in the weeks leading up to the conflict, most had been simply testing the waters, Port Said Chamber of Shipping head Adel Lamai tells EnterpriseAM. This included Maersk rerouting its ME11 and MECL services around the Cape of Good Hope, the maritime giant said in a statement<\/a> Friday. French shipping outfit CMA CGM<\/a>, MSC<\/a>, and Germany's Hapag-Lloyd<\/a> are doing the same until further notice.<\/p>\n

For Egypt, hopes of luring traffic back to the canal will be pushed back<\/strong>, with shipping lines often looking for one to three months of stable and safe conditions following the end of any hostilities before sending back their larger vessels, a senior government official tells us. Despite progress being made in bringing back vessels through the canal in recent months, the canal\u2019s target of bringing in USD 8-9.2 bn is now solidly out of reach.<\/p>\n

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What to watch: Energy<\/strong> flows<\/strong> and industrial supply risk<\/p>\n

About<\/strong> 20% of global oil supply \u2014 some 21 mn barrels a day \u2014<\/strong>alongside 20%<\/a><\/strong>of global LNG exports<\/a><\/strong>, passes through Hormuz.<\/strong> The chokepoint carries crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran, as well as large volumes of Qatari LNG. Asian buyers \u2014 which source roughly a quarter of their LNG from Qatar, and are the largest importers of Gulf crude \u2014 are calling<\/a> suppliers to line up alternatives. \u201cThe rational response is not to abandon Hormuz, but to accelerate route diversification and pipeline development,\u201d Lehmacher told us.<\/p>\n

Keep the gas flowing: <\/strong>To ensure supply keeps up with demand, Egypt\u2019s Oil Ministry is moving to increase LNG bookings by an additional 20 shipments for some USD 1-1.5 bn, starting with 15 shipments this month, after Israel shut off<\/a> 1.1 bcf\/d of Egypt-bound gas, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

Turkey<\/strong> is another pressure point in the mix:<\/strong> Ankara imports pipeline gas from Iran under a 9.6 bcm per year contract \u2014 though actual volumes recently fell below that level. If flows are curtailed further as the conflict escalates, Turkey \u2014 like Egypt \u2014 may have to step up LNG purchases, adding demand into an already tightening seaborne market, and putting more pressure on the super-chilled gas price. <\/p>\n

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What to watch: Port<\/strong> operations and suspensions <\/p>\n

Services<\/strong> calling at GCC ports are expecting to face delays, reroutings, or <\/strong>schedule adjustments. <\/strong>\u201cCarriers will instead omit these calls on east-west services and drop boxes at a least-worst alternative port for onward transportation by road,\u201d freight intelligence platform Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand explained<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Operational disruptions followed for<\/strong> UAE trade hubs, including DP <\/strong>World suspending all operations at Jebel Ali Port<\/strong> as a precautionary measure, halting all activities across the port\u2019s terminals, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

Kuwait\u2019s<\/strong> Ports Authority also <\/strong>suspended operations<\/a><\/strong> at Shuaiba<\/strong>, and Bahrain halted operations<\/a> at Khalifa Bin Salman Port and limited activity at Sitrah Port to emergency movements only. Qatar\u2019s Transport Ministry temporarily paused all maritime navigation.<\/p>\n

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What to watch: Risk<\/strong> premium and energy market repricing<\/p>\n

War<\/strong> risk<\/strong> insurers<\/strong> have issued cancellation notices for ships transiting via <\/strong>Hormuz<\/strong>, with brokers telling the Financial Times<\/a> that coverage will be renegotiated at higher rates than withdrawn outright \u2014 and prices could jump as much as 50%. Premiums had been running at about 0.25% of a vessel\u2019s replacement value, meaning a USD 100 mn ship paid roughly USD 250k per voyage; that could now rise to USD 375k. Cargo war risk cover for oil and grain is also set to be reset this week. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe cost of [covering] ships, containers, and crews, in addition to the refusal of some <\/strong>international ins. companies to [cover] war risks<\/strong>, will put pressure on global trade in the coming period,\u201d former Suez Canal Authority chairman and Suez Chamber of Shipping head Abdel Qader Gaballah told EnterpriseAM. \u201cFurthermore, exchange rate fluctuations and rising oil prices will all contribute to a significant wave of inflation,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

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What to watch: Airspace fragmentation and cargo network disruption<\/p>\n

Widespread<\/strong> airspace closures and flight disruptions have spread through the region.<\/strong> Iran, Israel, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait completely shut their skies to commercial traffic, while the UAE, Syria, and Oman have severely restricted flights. Saudi Arabia is hosting GCC nationals<\/a> stranded in its airports until conditions are suitable for safe repatriation.<\/p>\n

The<\/strong> aviation industry could take a hit:<\/strong> \u201cAny long-term disruption that continues to see the airspace from Kuwait to the UAE closed will have enormous repercussions for the industry. Nearly 100 mn people passed through Dubai alone last year, not to mention the massive cargo operation. Any extended conflict has the potential to upend a large part of the aviation industry,\u201d Ian Petchenik, director of Communications at Flightradar24, tells EnterpriseAM. <\/p>\n

Incidents<\/strong> at key airports: <\/strong><\/p>\n