{"id":91236,"date":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/?p=91236"},"modified":"2025-12-28T02:02:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-28T02:02:19","slug":"are-shipping-companies-serious-about-a-return-to-the-red-sea-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/logistics\/2025\/12\/23\/are-shipping-companies-serious-about-a-return-to-the-red-sea-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Are shipping companies serious about a return to the Red Sea?"},"content":{"rendered":"

How serious are global shipping giants about returning to the Red Sea? <\/strong>Serious enough to test the waters \u2014 France\u2019s CMA CGM<\/a> and Maersk<\/a> recently sent vessels through the Bab El Mandeb Strait for the first time in years \u2014 but nowhere near ready to dive in. We recently spoke with Martin Kelly, head analyst at EOS Marine, part of EOS Risk Group, to get a lay of the waters.<\/p>\n

ENTERPRISEAM: Are we witnessing the beginnings of return to the status quo on Red Sea waters?
<\/strong><\/p>\n

MARTIN KELLY: <\/strong>It\u2019s far too risky for me. If I were a security manager at a shipping company, we wouldn\u2019t be going there yet. There is no single answer \u2014 it\u2019s down to individual risk tolerance. If there is a return, it will be gradual: individual lines or a few ships here and there, rather than anyone saying, \u201cOkay, let\u2019s go all in.\u201d<\/p>\n

It's on a knife-edge, a situation that could turn overnight.<\/strong> The longer a ceasefire holds, the more we might see a new norm in which everyone adheres to new rules. But so far, that hasn\u2019t been the case \u2014 we\u2019re still seeing breaches of the ceasefire, both above and below the threshold of open conflict.<\/p>\n

ENTERPRISEAM: Ins. rates have dropped <\/strong>nearly 70%<\/a><\/strong> f from their mid-2024 highs, but they still remain multiples of their <\/strong>pre-September 2023 rates<\/a><\/strong>s. Why is this the case?<\/strong><\/p>\n

MARTIN KELLY: There is a huge misconception that the Houthis are just a militia. <\/strong>They have lots of fighters, they are well-armed, and they fight in a hybrid space. They aren\u2019t going away; they\u2019re building presence and power in different pockets. This shifts the defensive playing field constantly. And as long as the Houthis remain active, rates can never go back down to what they were.<\/p>\n

ENTERPRISEAM: What is the current threat profile?<\/strong><\/p>\n

MARTIN KELLY: <\/strong>We\u2019ve seen the targeting progress through four distinct phases. First, it was ships directly linked to Israel. Second, it expanded to ships calling at Israeli ports. Third, US and UK ships were added to the target list.<\/p>\n

We are now in phase four, where it gets complex: <\/strong>They are targeting any ship if a vessel within that company\u2019s fleet has called at an Israeli port. This has caused the rate of misidentification to shoot up \u2014 when relying on open-source intelligence, the Houthis are prone to misinformation. If you are a shipping company, the risk of misidentification \u2014 on top of everything else \u2014 makes this a huge risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Martin Kelly, head analyst at EOS Risk Group, shares his thoughts on how serious shippers are on returning to the status 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