Good morning, friends. We’re heading into the weekend with a bang from Turkey after it secured supply agreements for some 15 bcm of LNG, bringing the country closer to its re-export hub ambitions. Today’s brisk read also features zones and startup updates from Egypt, as well as a deep dive into how surging demand for sanctioned oil is shifting the basics of asset valuation for the shipping industry. Shall we?
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Iraq is expecting bids from undisclosed global and regional shipyards to manufacture eight vessels — set to operate under the country’s almost completed Grand Faw Port, the Transport Ministry’s Media Office Director Maytham Al Safi told Al Sabah. The vessels aim to bolster the country’s maritime sector and expand its existing fleet as Iraq gears up to launch operations of the Grand Faw Port in 2026.
REFRESHER- Iraq’s General Company for Iraqi Ports is reportedly close to selecting a global operator for Grand Faw, with no timeline disclosed. The mega-port will serve as a key enabler of Iraq’s Development Road Project — which aims to position the country as an intermodal transhipment hub connecting to Turkey via road and rail covering 1.2k km.
#2- Egypt-incoming LNG shipments are set to fall by a third in the last quarter of the year, with the country expected to receive around 40 shipments in the post-peak summer period, a government source told EnterpriseAM.
But we may not need to follow through on all these shipments, as the contracted shipments have flexible terms in the event of fluctuating local production and demand, our source told us. Winter could also see Eni and Shell portioning out a share of production for export as LNG.
Whether it’s 40 or 60 shipments a month, Egypt is ready, with three operational regasification vessels ready to process the shipments and a fourth that will join them this month to bring total daily capacity to 2.7 bn cubic feet of gas, we were told.
ALSO FROM EGYPT- The government is studying a temporary 200-day safeguard tariff on hot-rolled steel imports, Asharq Business reports, citing an unspecified government document. The proposed 13.6% tariff is meant to address the damage caused by a recent glut of these imports that undercut local producers.
#3- Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Yemen yesterday — its second in a few days — killing 35 and injuring over 100, the Associated Press reports. The strikes came in retaliation against a Houthis-launched drone attack that hit an Israeli airport earlier this week. The attack on Yemen comes one day after Israel launched an unprecedented airstrike in Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership in Doha.
REMEMBER- Israeli airstrikes have hit half a dozen countries in the region so far, raising regional tensions that have led to multiple airspace shutdowns disrupting aviation flows. Meanwhile, the Houthis have been disrupting trade and shipping in the Red Sea route in protest of Israel’s war in Gaza.
#4- Airbus is still committed to its delivery targets this year, despite persisting delays in engine deliveries, Reuters reports, citing remarks made by CEO Guillaume Faury to journalists during the Global Aerospace Summit in DC. “As long as we don’t have the engines, we know there is still uncertainty remaining,” but there’s reason for optimism, Faury said, pointing to the drop in the number of completed aircraft frames that are waiting idle due to delayed engine deliveries. The European aircraft producer wants to deliver 820 jets in 2025.
Meanwhile, Airbus is looking for an expanded production capacity of its narrowbody A320 neo models, as it works towards the expected launch of a second China assembly line in 4Q 2025. The new assembly plant launch comes at a time when demand for long-haul flights is bouncing back, Faury explained.
DATA POINT- Airbus delivered 306 jets in 1H this year, a 5% y-o-y increase, but its July deliveries fell by 13% y-o-y.
MARKET WATCH-
#1- Oil prices went down this morning amid signs of global oversupply and weakening US demand, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.14 to reach USD 67.35 / bbl by 04.33 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 0.15 to trade at USD 63.53 / bbl.
Expect oversupply in 2026: Global crude oil inventories are set to expand by more than 2 mn bbl / d through the first quarter of 2026, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest short-term energy outlook (pdf). The agency had previously expected the surplus in 4Q 2025, but revised its view as supply growth outpaces demand. The updated forecast doesn’t yet factor in the additional production that Opec recently agreed to roll out.
The accumulation of inventories is expected to weigh on prices, with Brent seen averaging USD 51 / bbl next year — well below its current USD 66.50 / bbl, according to the EIA outlook. The agency added that the market imbalance could force Opec+ and other producers to dial back output later in 2026 to stabilize prices.
Some forecasts see prices in the 50s: Goldman Sachs also expects an oil surplus in 2026, revising its estimate to 1.9 mn bbl / d, and sees Brent averaging USD 56 / bbl in 2026. S&P Global is also projecting weaker crude prices by year-end, with dated Brent seen falling toward USD 55 / bbl as Opec continues to release additional supply.
Can China help? China’s stockpiling of crude oil, which absorbed surplus supply throughout this year, is expected to persist at a comparable pace into 2026, Reuters reported citing Gunvor head of research Frederic Lasserre.
PSA-
Maersk revises PSS: Shipping giant Maersk has revised its peak season surcharge (PSS) for cargo traveling from the Indian Subcontinent and the Middle East to the US and Canada’s East and Gulf coasts — applicable starting 3 October, according to a statement. For cargo coming from the UAE, Yemen, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain, a USD 1k PSS applies to 20-ft and 40-ft dry containers, along with 40-ft and 45-ft high cube dry containers, while a USD 1.3k PSS applies to 20-ft reefer containers and 40-ft high cube reefer containers.
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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
Saudi Arabia will host the Smart Ports and Logistics Transformation Summit on Monday, 15 September and Tuesday, 16 September in Jeddah. The summit will host over 40 global and local speakers, industry experts, and policymakers to explore smart port solutions, port operations, and logistics within Saudi Arabia.
The UK will host the London International Shipping Week on Monday, 15 September until Friday, 19 September in London. The event will host shipping and maritime industry decision makers to attend several industry related events and seminars.
The UAE will host the Syria Recovery and Investment Forum on Wednesday, 24 September in Abu Dhabi. The forum will host leaders in business, regional investors, policymakers, and advisory experts to develop practical solutions for Syria’s road to recovery and economic revival.
Turkey will host the Global Freight Summit on Sunday, 28 September until Wednesday, 1 October in Istanbul. The summit will host over 330 attendees and over 250 firms for policy and knowledge and strategies exchange between forwarding partners.
The UAE will host the African & Middle East & Islamic Finance Aviation 100 Awards on Monday, 29 September until Wednesday, 1 October in Dubai. The event aims to highlight and reward the most remarkable transactions closed by airlines and aviation manufacturing and leasing firms.
The UAE will host the Global Rail Transport Infrastructure Exhibition and Conference on Tuesday, 30 September until Thursday, 2 October in Abu Dhabi. The event will be hosted by Etihad Rail and is set to welcome over 200 global speakers and upwards of 20k industry attendees to share innovative solutions and develop partnerships.
Saudi Arabia will host the Saudi Maritime and Logistics Congress on Wednesday, 1 October and Thursday, 2 October in Dammam. It will host over 200 registered exhibitors and some 15k attendees from over 90 countries to discuss AI-powered fleet optimization, shifts in global trade, and intelligence-driven infrastructure.
Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.




