Good morning, friends. It is another quiet news day this week, but we still have important IPO updates from Oman and UAE and the latest on China’s retaliation against the US’ tariffs. Let’s dive right in.

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- China retaliates against US tariffs: China has slapped the US with a new set of tariffs that are set to impact nearly USD 21 bn in US exports. The countermeasures — which include a combination of export controls and tariffs on US agricultural products — came in as a swift response to the US’ move to double its China tariffs to 20% this week.

The details: China has retaliated with a 15% tariff on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, as well as an extra 10% levy on US soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef and more starting 10 March. The Asian country has also halted imports of soybean from a list of US firms — CHS Inc, Louis Dreyfus Company Merchandising LLC, and EGT LLC — alongside a flat ban on US log products, Bloomberg reports, citing China’s General Administration of Customs.

There is more: Beijing has also placed 15 US firms on its Export Control List on national security grounds, prohibiting Chinese firms from supplying these companies with dual-use technologies, and added 10 companies to its Unreliable Entity List for selling arms to Taiwan.

Impact: The most affected by value will be the soybean trade, which at USD 12.76 bn is the US’ largest agricultural export to China, Reuters reports, citing US Census data. This is followed by beef and offal at USD 1.55 bn, cotton at USD 1.49 bn, and sorghum at USD 1.26 bn.

REMEMBER- US agricultural exports to China have already been on the decline, dropping 14% y-o-y in 2024 to USD 29.95 bn.

The story made headlines in the international press: Reuters | The Associated Press | Bloomberg | The Financial Times | The Washington Post | The New York Times | CNN | BBC | The Guardian | NPR

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Abu Dhabi’s flagship carrier Etihad Airways will reportedly postpone its blockbuster USD 1 bn IPO until after the Eid El Fitr holiday, Reuters reports, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter. The reason for the delay was not specified, and neither Etihad nor its owner Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund the ADQ gave comment.

Where we left things off: The IPO was gaining momentum last week after Etihad reportedly kicked off a roadshow earlier in February to feel out investors for the sale. When the IPO goes ahead, it should see ADQ rake in some USD 1 bn in proceeds from the sale of a 20% stake by selling new shares on the ADX. The move would give the airline an implied market cap of USD 5 bn at listing.

#2- China eyes Egypt as export hub amid US trade tensions: Chinese companies are expected to invest USD 2-3 bn in moving production to Egypt, particularly the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone), as the Asian country looks to maintain export access to global markets amid intensifying trade war with the US, deputy head of the China committee in the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association Mostafa Ibrahim told Al Arabiya.

Some 20-30 Chinese companies are considering expansion into the local market this year, Ibrahim added. Most of these companies focus on high-export industries like readymade garments, textiles, home appliances, and technology. Nearly two-thirds of the investments are expected to flow into areas near Suez, while the remaining third might go to inner industrial zones, Ibrahim added.

ICYMI- US President Donald Trump earlier this week signed off on doubling tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, with the directive going into force yesterday.

The rationale: Chinese companies are increasingly expanding manufacturing to Egypt to leverage its freetrade agreements with the US and Europe, which could allow them to bypass tariffs as they look to maintain exports to these markets. Egypt’s low-cost labor and large consumer market are also fueling the push.

IN OTHER EGYPT NEWS- Egypt-based manufacturer Engineering Industrial Group (INDE) plans to begin producing electric cargo tricycles this year, a company official told Al Mal. The company aims to produce at least 2k tricycles — with a local component ratio of over 65% — annually for the local market and export, before doubling production at a later stage.

INDE has reportedly already begun promoting the electric model in African markets, and is upgrading its production lines to accommodate its manufacture, expanding beyond current production of fuel-powered tricycles.

#3- CFG Bank bumps Marsa Maroc’s shares growth forecast: Morocco’s CFG Bank has raised its estimate of Marsa Maroc’s share price — predicting a rise to MAD 731 — and recommended investors hold the stock, Boursenews reported on Monday, citing a memo by the bank. The revision was prompted by Marsa Maroc’s recent concession agreement to operate the Western Terminal at Nador West Med (NWM) last week, which CFG expects to raise the port operator’s container handling capacity to about 7 mn TEUs by 2033 compared to an estimated 1.6 TEUs reached at the end of 2024. Another purported growth driver is Marsa Maroc’s expansions throughout Africa in Djibouti and Benin.

CFG’s analysis for Marsa Maroc’s share price landed at MAD 618 last month, driven by the port operator’s concession agreement for the Eastern Terminal of NWM, as well as upping its ownership stake in Agadir port operator SMA.

#4- Saudi delivery app Ninja is reportedly in talks for a potential fundraising round that would value the company at USD 1 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter. Riyadh Capital is leading the investment round, which is expected to close this month, the business information service says. The app (App Store | Google Play) is a 24/7 online supermarket delivering across the Kingdom and was the #1 delivery app in Saudi’s Internet Report by the Communications, Space, and Technology Commission.

The fundraising comes ahead of a planned IPO for Ninja in 2027, with the company currently in talks to go public, although no final decisions on valuation or timeline have been disclosed.

MORE FROM SAUDI- Riyadh Air is still set on track to launch in 2025, with the airline expecting to receive several Boeing aircraft starting 3Q of this year despite global supply chain challenges, CEO Tony Douglas told Airways Magazine. The airline is still working towards securing its Air Operator Certificate (AOC) from the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), with major parts of its first Boeing 787-9 ready for final assembly. Meanwhile, a separately leased 787-9 — outside its original order— will be used for training, certification, and regulatory approvals before serving as backup once operations begin.

REMEMBER- Riyadh Air also placed an order of 60 Airbus A321neos in October which are scheduled to arrive between 2H 2026 and 2030. The startup airline is also to place a new wide-body jet order by 1H 2025 to further expand its fleet, eyeing the Boeing 777X and Airbus A350-1000.

#5- Qatar Airways is working on a Request for Proposal (RFP) for a “sizeable” order of widebody aircraft to buttress long-term growth goals, CCO Thierry Antinori told Reuters. The carrier is mulling whether to acquire the undisclosed number of aircraft from Boeing, Airbus, or under a split contract between both manufacturers. No exact timeline for finalizing an agreement was disclosed, but Antinori said a contract would be announced “soon.”

Like clockwork: The airline issued RFPs for widebody aircraft to Airbus and Boeing in March 2024, which was at the time reported to consist of up to 150 planes.

#6- Bumps on the road to resuming Kurdish oil exports: A meeting to discuss the supposedly imminent resumption ofKurdish oil exports — scheduled for Tuesday — has been delayed to tomorrow, Thursday, following disagreements between oil companies and the Oil Ministry, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The delay came after the two sides failed to agree on key pricing and payments terms in a Sunday meeting, with the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan — representing eight firms producing 60% of the region’s oil — demanding that the government has produce written agreements that ensures payments for future exports and for accumulated debt for past exports from 2022 and 2023.

ICYMI- Baghdad recently earmarked 185k barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil for exports through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once it becomes operational. The pipeline was shut down in 2023 for earthquake repairs and subsequent financial and technical disagreements with Turkey, which suspended its side of operations following an arbitration court order for it to pay USD 1.5 bn in compensation to Iraq.

ALSO- Iraq is considering picking a UAE firm to develop the infrastructure of a new airport in south central Al Diwaniyah at an undisclosed investment ticket, Governor Abbas Al Zamili told Iraqi news outlet Al Sabah (pdf). The project is slated to be awarded this year. The company’s name was not disclosed.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices slid this morning, following Opec+’s decision earlier this week to move ahead with plans to raise production next month, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures decreased by USD 0.24 to USD 70.80 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by USD 0.58 to USD 67.68 a barrel by 05.00 GMT. A previous session yesterday saw crude prices fall close to “multi-month lows,” Reuters reports.

REFRESHER- Opec+ agreed to stick to plans to revive supply in April following repeated delays, according to a statement on Monday. The group cited “healthy market fundamentals” and a “positive outlook,” but kept the door open for future changes in policy, saying the increase may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. “This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,” the statement said.

#2- Baltic index snaps winning streak: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — fell 14 points to 1,262 on Tuesday, buoyed by low rates across all segments. The capesize eased by 11 points to 1,969, while the panamax index was down 21 points to 1,024. The smaller supramax index shed 11 points to 876.

#3- European natural gas prices went up as an agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war appears increasingly out of reach, lowering the prospect of resuming Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, Bloomberg reports. Benchmark future rose 6.7% on Monday, while European gas prices surged to a two-year high in February.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Gulf Ship Finance Forum on Thursday, 10 April in Dubai. The forum will host shipping and finance executives from around the region and the world to host presentations, interviews and panel discussions on ownership, management, chartering, legal and trading in shipping.

The UAE will host the CargoIS Forum on Monday, 14 April in Dubai. The event will discuss industry insights and strategies from leading logistics players, including Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo.

The UAE will host the IATA World Cargo Symposium from Tuesday, 15 April to Thursday, 17 April in Dubai. The event will host sessions, specialized streams, workshops and summits related to technology, security, customs, cargo operations and sustainability for over 1.4k industry leaders.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.