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Purchasing manager indices (PMI) for countries in the region are out, and as usual, they tell a mixed tale, with GCC countries seeing their non-energy sectors expand, while Egypt’s and Lebanon’s are in contraction.

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REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

EGYPT-

On the up, but still in the red: Egypt’s non-oil private sector activity contracted for the second consecutive month in October, S&P Global’s most recent Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (pdf) report showed. The decline was driven by rising price pressures — driven by higher costs of raw materials and utilities — that dampened new order volumes across the board. October’s index reading rose to 49.0 from the previous month’s 48.8, leaving us just below the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction.

A stronger USD and high input prices drove the fall: Rising costs of imported inputs drove the trend, according to the report, with a stronger USD highlighted as the main culprit. However, input cost inflation rose at a slower pace than September’s six-month high and at the slowest pace since July — a possible indication that we might soon see the tail-end of input cost inflation. Surveyed companies reported overall declining sales due to weak market conditions and higher prices, with construction firms seeing the largest drop in activity and sales.

On a more positive note, hiring was up: Despite the contraction in overall business activity, employment rose for the fourth straight month, with job creation growing at its fastest rate since May. Total input purchases also fell for the first time since August, easing pressures on supply chains.

A positive outlook, with confidence concerns: Non-oil private sector activity is expected to increase in the coming 12 months, with S&P Global Market Intelligence senior economist David Owen noting that “with the PMI at 49.0 points in October, Egypt’s non-oil economy is not too far from growing again.” That being said, businesses are not confident about the year ahead, with the report saying that the relevant index had dropped to “one of its lowest readings in the survey’s history.”

SAUDI ARABIA-

Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia: Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom grew at its fastest pace in six months in October, buoyed by new orders, purchasing activity, and renewed confidence across the board, according to Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The headline figure rose to 56.9 in October, up from 56.3 in September, increasing for the third consecutive month.

A boost in new orders propelled the index upwards, driven by new customer intake, successful marketing strategies, and enhanced infrastructure development, with “over 40% of surveyed companies report[ing] a surge in demand,” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said. This simultaneously caused an uptick in output rates, input purchases and general purchasing activity — rising from a three-year low in September — and input stocks.

Hiring was also up: Firms continued to ramp up hiring to keep up with new orders; however, the rate of hiring decreased for the second month running, due to staffing setbacks in the construction sector.

And so was inflation: October saw selling prices rise for the first time in four months, driven by an uptick in input costs due to higher material prices and wages. The rise was most notable in manufacturing and retail though competition kept prices somewhat in check across the construction and services sectors.

Firms in Saudi Arabia continued to register a positive outlook for the coming year, with optimism jolting up from September.

UAE-

Over in the UAE: Non-oil business activity picked up in October, driven by high output rates, easing backlogs, and softened input price pressures, according to S&P Global’s UAE PMI (pdf). The country’s headline PMI grew to 54.1 in October, up from 53.8 in September.

Sluggish new order momentum weighed on the sector, softening to its slowest rate of growth in some 20 months, with sales dropping on the back of strong market competition. This adds “to the signs that the [UAE’s] non-oil economy is losing strength after a robust growth period,” said S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen. Subsequently, employment growth was weak, slipping to a 30-month low.

Still, firms maintained efforts to contain backlogs, driving up a spike in input purchasing. Supplier delivery times dropped steadily, contributing to an ease in backlog accumulation.

Overall input costs fell to their lowest rate of increase in six months, easing purchase prices and wages to the weakest rate of inflation in nearly a year. With that said, some companies surveyed reported high material, equipment, and office supply costs. Nevertheless, average output prices fell for the first time since April, with firms looking to address strong competition and reverse slowing sales.

Business sentiment witnessed an uptick from Septmber’s 18-month low, with companies hopeful about sustained growth over the next 12 months, supported by strong sales pipelines and a dip in input cost inflation.

KUWAIT-

Kuwait’s PMI recorded improvement in overall business conditions, as new orders, output, and purchasing rates markedly increased, according to Kuwait’s S&P Global PMI (pdf). The country’s headline figure jumped to a seven-month high of 52.7, up from 50.3 in September. October witnessed a “rejuvenation of the Kuwaiti non-oil private sector, with firms much better able to bring in new business during the month and therefore seeing output growth quicken,” S&P Global economics director Andrew Harker said.

New orders grew at the fastest rate since May, propelled by successful advertising and competitive pricing, with a particular expansion of new export orders coming in from other Gulf countries.

Output prices remained steady despite a sharp increase in overall input costs as firms looked to remain competitive. Firms reported price hikes for a range of goods, including advertising, electricity, food products, and maintenance.

Delivery times were down in October, with suppliers looking to attract additional business. Firms reported mixed tactics in regard to job creation, which rose only marginally, with some taking on extra staff to respond to new orders, and others reducing employment to limit costs.

The non-oil outlook in October remained strong, banking on further boosts in new orders over the next 12-months.

QATAR-

Qatar’s non-oil private sector indicated a stronger growth in business conditions in October, bolstered by a growth in new orders and output, according to Qatar Financial Center’s PMI (pdf). The country’s headline figure jumped to 52.8, up from 51.7 in September.

A surge in new orders spurred overall business activity, expanding for the tenth month in a row on the back of successful marketing strategies, service developments, client satisfaction and population growth.

Output prices fell for the third consecutive month despite overall cost pressures rising to an over four-year high, as firms strived to remain competitive. Employment rates rose sharply and wage inflation remained stable, after reaching a record high in September, as firms invested to expand capacity. Companies are placing an emphasis on retaining experienced and skilled staff to challenge market competition.

Firms remain hopeful for the next year, with confidence in the market reaching a near two year high.

LEBANON-

Lebanon’s troubles deepen: Non-oil private sector activity in the country declined at the swiftest pace in over 44 months in October, weighed down by a sharp decline in new orders, purchasing activity, and supply chain disruptions, as Israel escalated attacks in the country, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). October’s reading saw Lebanon’s headline figure plummet to 45.0, down from 47.0 in September, and settling well below the 50.0 threshold.

New order intakes contracted at their fastest pace since early 2021, with a significant drop in new export business, as foreign clients were dissuaded from placing new orders due to fears of Israel’s attacks continuing or intensifying. Amid soft demand, output activity slumped and order backlogs fell at the steepest rate in just over two-and-a-half-years. Employment levels also dipped, though at a marginal rate.

Delivery times stretched as the conflict impeded the movement of goods, particularly via roads. With Israel’s war in Lebanon causing significant disruptions to the country’s supply chain, firms reduced buying activity at the fastest pace since July 2021, reducing stocks of purchases to a four-year low as some firms took items from their inventories in response to shortages in the market.

Overall input price inflation soared to a 19-month high, as the escalation of the conflict pushed up purchasing prices for Lebanese firms, pushing private sector firms to raise output prices at the swiftest rate in over a year-and-a-half.

A bleak outlook: Business outlook slumped to a 16-month low, on the back of concerns of an escalation or prolongation of Israel’s war in Lebanon. “It is devastating that private sector companies are pessimistic regarding the future outlook as 84% of panelists expect activity levels to shrink in the upcoming 12 months,” said Blominvest Bank general manager Fadi Osseiran.