Good morning, folks. It is a packed issue today, with lots of regional updates to cover from ports to roads to 2024 earnings. But first, let’s go over the latest from Trump’s tariff warring with his neighbors…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- Trump follows through on his tariffsthreat: The new US administration rolled out an expansive tariff scheme, targeting Mexican and Canadian imports with 25% duties and Chinese ones with 10%. However, Canadian energy products would see only a 10% duty after oil refiners dependent on imports from Canada raised concerns, Reuters reported. Any goods loaded onto their final mode of transit before 12.01 EST on Saturday will be exempt from the duties.

Canada also followed through on its pledge toretaliate, introducing a 25% tariff against CAD 155 bn (c. USD 107 bn) worth of US goods, including lumber, appliances, beer, and wine. Tariffs on CAD 30 bn worth of goods took effect today, with the rest of the goods scheduled to face tariffs in 21 days. Mexico is also considering retaliatory tariffs, but no details on size or timeline are available just yet.

China will go to the WTO: China’s Commerce Ministry says it plans to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization and take unspecified countermeasures against the tariffs to secure its interests, according to a statement.

European, Asian refiners could emerge as winners: The tariffs impacting oil imports are expected to give European and Asian refineries a competitive edge, Reuters quotes analysts as saying. With costs expected to rise for US refineries — especially those dependent on heavier crude — potentially reducing their profitability and causing production cuts, European and Asian refineries could capitalize on the move by absorbing Canada’s cheaper crude.

More tariffs are possible, too: Steel, aluminum, semiconductor chips, and pharma products are also on Trump’s tariffs’ hit list. Multilateral blocs, such as the EU and BRICS, are also in the crosshairs.

MARKET REAX- Oil prices spiked this morning in response to the moves, Reuters reports. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were up by USD 1.36 to USD 73.89 a barrel, while brent futures rose USD 0.67 to USD 76.34 a barrel by GMT 04.43.

The story grabbed a lot of ink in the international press over the weekend: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | The Wall Street Journal | The New York Times | The Washington Post | Politico | CNN | BBC | CBS | NPR

ALSO- More drama is unfolding over the Panama Canal: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded that Panama must curb China’s influence over the global shipping route or “face immediate consequences” in a conversation with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino yesterday. Trump, in earlier statements, called the canal fees “a complete rip-off” and called for making the canal American again. Rubio’s demands grabbed ink in the AP, Financial Times, and BBC.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is set to kick off the second phase of freetrade talks with Thailand today, which will last until this Thursday, 6 February, according to state news agency SPA. The two sides hope to complete an agreement within the next two years, which is expected to eliminate or reduce custom duties and simplify procedures for the transfer of goods between them.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways eyes Egypt expansion: Kuwaiti Boodai Corp ’s Jazeera Airways wants to increase its operations in Egypt to cover nine airports by adding El Alamein International Airport and Hurghada International Airport to its routes network. The airline already has flights taking off from and landing in seven other Egyptian airports, according to a statement. The Kuwaiti player is also interested in investments in airport development and is mulling a mass transit project similar to its existing projects in the Gulf.

#2- Jordan mulls plans for new dry port + logistics center in Mafraq: Jordan is looking to establish a new logistics services center in Jordan’s King Hussein Bin Talal Development Area (KHBTDA) in Mafraq, Petra reported on Saturday, citing director Liza Dughmi. The logistics center will serve as a core step for a larger dry port development planned in the area.

More on the port: A preliminary comprehensive plan has been allocated for the 3.7 mn sqm port, which is set to include a 900k sqm freezone area, and a rail connecion in its second phase. A 50k sqm plot was also earmarked by the General Customs Department for the development of a customs center within the port to streamline and expedite customs procedures for investors. The port is planned to feature several services, including customs control, storage, container management, as well as shipping and handling services.

#3- Adnoc could be inching closer to bidding on Shell’s South Africa assets, as a valuation dispute with its local partner Thebe Investment nears resolution, unnamed sources told Bloomberg on Friday. Shell owns a network of 600 service stations across the country and expects to raise up to USD 1 bn from this transaction, whereas its partner Thebe Investment — which owns 28% of the retail operation — could grab USD 200 mn from the sale. The sale process is currently managed by Rothschild.

Who is interested? Other interested parties include Saudi Aramco and trading company Trafigura. South Africa’s chemicals and energy player Sasol, Switzerland-based Puma Energy, and Swiss company Glencore were also reportedly considering a potential bid back in 2024.

REMEMBER- Adnoc was mulling the acquisition since May 2024, which was valued at USD 800 mn at the time. The sale would include the company’s aviation, marine, construction and road, trading and supply, commercial fuels, and lubricant operations.

#4- Enter, Egytrans Arabia: EGX-listed transport and logistics company Egytrans and Saudi Arabia-based Links Investments have launched a new shipping company — Egytrans Arabia — headquartered in Riyadh, according to a statement released on Thursday. “As we step into year 2025, our headthe quarters will serve as a central hub for delivering world-class logistics services and strengthening industry partnerships,” the statement read.

This isn’t the first time we heard about the partnership: The two companies first announced their plan to launch the company back in December 2023.

Look out for more Egytrans expansion news to come: “Even if we are a local company, we really see ourselves becoming a regional leader and competing with the big multinational transport and logistics companies,” Egytrans’ CEO Abir Leheta previously told EnterpriseAM. Egytrans Arabia is part of the parent company’s “first steps to grow regionally,” she added.

IN OTHER EGYPT UPDATES- Egypt is in talks to temporarily use Cyprus’ floating storage and regasification unit Etyfa Prometheus, according to industry publication Mees. Currently being tested in Malaysia, the unit could be lent to Egypt for the short term in exchange for certifying it, Cypriot Energy Minister George Papanastasiou said. With Cyprus’ own LNG import plans delayed until at least late 2025, the potential agreement could see Egypt use the vessel until Cyprus has a need for it, according to the report.

ALSO FROM EGYPT- Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie went on a charm offensive to persuade shipping lines to return to the canal, telling representatives of 23 leading companies in the field that “the current conditions in the Red Sea region are witnessing many positive indicators towards the start of stability returning to the region,” according to a statement released on Friday.

Remember, traffic is picking up through the canal, albeit very slowly, with reports out last week that six US- and UK-linked ships passed through the Red Sea safely since 19 January, after Yemen’s Houthis announced they would only target Israeli-linked vessels following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. However, six ships are just a drop in the bucket compared to the traffic the canal is traditionally used to, with shipping giants Maersk, MSC, and Mitsui OSK still avoiding the Red Sea, citing security risks.

#5- Oman is considering policies to boost logistics SMEs: Oman’s Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority (SMEDA) is working with local authorities to expand the role of SMEs and startups in the transport and logistics sectors, Oman Observer reported last week, citing the Transport, Communications, and IT Ministry’s undersecretary Khamis bin Mohammed Al Shammakhi.

Proposals in the pipeline: Al Emad Logistics and Shipping Company has submitted a proposal to the relevant authorities to regulate and introduce modern technology to the Omani logistics sector, Oman Observer reported, citing the company’s CFO Mohamed Al Zaidi.

By the numbers: By the end of December, SMEs in the Omani transport and logistics sector numbered 31k, and 6.3k SMEs were operating in the information and communications sector, the outlet reports.

#6- Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk’s long-awaited Gemini Cooperation commenced operations on Saturday, according to a statement released on Friday. Under the new network, which began accepting bookings back in November, the pair will operate 57 services with a total capacity of 3.7 mn TEUs. The network boasts around 340 vessels, with 29 mainliners and 28 inter-regional shuttles, including four in the Middle East.

REMEMBER- The new alliance is adopting a “hub and spoke” approach, which will focus less on direct port calls and more on hubs controlled by the two companies. The move looks to boost the alliance’s ability to manage more but shorter trips smoothly in a bid to increase schedule reliability and, in turn, free up capacity. The long-term operational alliance — announced in January last year — is targeting schedule reliability above 90% for its maritime network.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Opec+ seems unlikely to change plans despite push by Trump: Opec+ is expected to maintain its gradual output increase plan despite US President Donald Trump’s calls to boost production and lower oil prices to USD 60-70 per barrel, Reuters reported on Friday, citing delegates from the group. Four cartel delegates indicated no change, while two were uncertain. Brent crude reached nearly USD 83 per barrel in January, driven by concerns over US sanctions on Russia. “Tightening sanctions on Russia poses new challenges [for Opec+], but the oil alliance will not rush to pumping additional barrels before confirming the impact of those sanctions on the market,” oil economist Paul Heiken told Ashraq Business.

REMEMBER- Opec+ has been withholding 5.9 mn bpd, or 5.7% of global supply, through a series of cuts since 2022 to support the market. The latest extension of output cuts through 1Q 2025 delayed production increases till April. The unwinding of 2.2 mn bpd in cuts, alongside an increase for the UAE, will begin in April with a monthly rise of 138k bpd, continuing until September 2026.

#2- Baltic index on the rise: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — rose 20 points to 735 on Friday, buoyed by larger vessel segments after a 13-day-long losing streak. The capesize index surged 33 points to 874, while the panamax index gained 33 points to 800. The smaller supramax index dipped by 2 points to 603.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index fell 2% to USD 3,364 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 68% below the previous pandemic peak but remain 137% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,711 per 40ft container, which is USD 835 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,876.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Egypt’s Red Sea Ports Authority (RSPA) saw its cargo handling rates increase 26.19% y-o-y to 8.1 mn tons in 2024, Al Mal reported on Sunday. Exports of various and general dry goods increased by 31.7% y-o-y to 5.5 mn tons during the same time period. Safaga Port handled most cargo amongst its Red Sea peers, with 5.6 mn tons of cargo.

There’s more for Egyptian ports: The Suez Port’s cargo handling increased by 50.5% y-o-y in 2024, handling 53k tons of imports and 484k tons of exports, with goods that include flour, sugar, and miscellaneous goods. Nuweiba port’s handling rose by 34.61% y-o-y in 2024 to 1.7 mn tons of goods, and its imports reached 202k tons while exports reached 867k tons.

#2-Global air cargo demand — measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTK) — has increased by 11.3% y-o-y in 2024, driven by strong e-commerce and several ocean shipping restrictions, according to an IATA press release (pdf) published last week. Global capacity rose by 7.4% y-o-y in 2024, while global trade in goods grew by 3.6% y-o-y during the same period.

… as for Middle Eastern carriers, Middle Eastern markets saw a 13% y-o-y growth in air cargo demand in 2024, with a 5.5% y-o-y boost to capacity in 2024, IATA said in a statement.

What does 2025 hold? IATA estimates a 5.8% growth for air cargo, as oil prices are on a “downward trajectory and trade continuing to grow,” IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said in the statement. IATA predicts that the air cargo industry will be challenged to adapt to geopolitical shifts and the Trump administration’s tariffs.

PSA-

#1- You’ll be paying more at the pump this month in the UAE: The Fuel Price Committee raised February fuel prices from January’s rates, according to a statement on X. This comes after two months of petrol price stability following January’s freeze at December’s rates — the lowest recorded in 2024.

The breakdown per liter:

• Super 98 is now AED 2.74, up from AED 2.61;
• Special 95 is AED 2.63, up from AED 2.50;
• E-Plus 91 costs AED 2.55, up from AED 2.43;
• Diesel is now AED 2.82, up from AED 2.68 last month.

#2-New Mediterranean and Black Sea services from Hapag-Lloyd: Hapag-Lloyd is launching the Cross Med Express (XMX) and the Black Sea Express (BSX) services, effective from 1 March and 4 March, respectively, according to a statement released on Friday. The two services will replace the company’s now obsolete West Med Black Sea (WBS) service and aim to offer efficient coverage between the Black Sea and East Med to Egypt, the West Med, and Morocco.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, a heavy lift workshop, a chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

The UAE will host the MRO Middle East and Aircraft Interiors from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. MRO Middle East will host leaders in aircraft maintenance, repair, and operations to explore the latest technologies and strategies in the industry.

The UAE will host the Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA forum from Monday, 10 February to Wednesday, 12 February in Abu Dhabi. The event aims to promote SAF partnerships, raise awareness, and support the integration of clean energy and sustainability in the aviation sector. The two-day forum will host key figures in the aviation industry, including notable speakers from Lufthansa Group, ACI World, Saudia Group, Arab Air Carriers’ Organization (AACO), and DHL Express.

The UAE will host the WCA Worldwide Conference from Tuesday, 25 February to Saturday, 1 March in Dubai. The event — set to bring together over 4.5k freight forwarders from 179 countries — will host several workshops and courses over one week.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.