Volatile global trade regimes could be a boon for UAE: Global trade tensions, fueled by rising protectionism, are set to fuel the UAE’s push for more comprehensive trade agreements with trading partners. These agreements are more than ink on paper, they signify the UAE’s strategic push to cement its strategy and role as an indispensable and resilient trade and re-export hub amid global uncertainty, several sources told Arabian Gulf Business Insight last week.

UAE’s hot CEPA season: The UAE has polished off talks on 27 CEPAs. Around eight of them are already in effect, including with Turkey, India, and Indonesia. The UAE also has 14 CEPAs inked and awaiting ratification — including with Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, the Central African Republic, and Chile, while others are still on the negotiation table.

The drivers: Uncertain global trade environments are expected to incentivize countries to lock down freetrade agreements with the UAE to act as a “buffer against disruptions” and ensure stability, US-based Terner Consulting geopolitical analyst Steven Terner noted. With the UAE already functioning as a gateway of trade between several key markets, such agreements would “[allow] countries to route export to the UAE’s wide entire network” of freetrade partners, Gordon said.

The UAE’s network of CEPAs offers access to markets with some 2.5 bn individuals, positioning the Gulf country a highly attractive destination for multinational companies to invest in the UAE as a global sales hub, London-based Albright Stonebridge Group associate partner Ben Gordon told the news outlet.

The UAE’s active CEPAs added around AED 135 bn to non-oil trade, which increased 42% y-o-y in 2024. Emirati foreign trade also rose 14.6% y-o-y in 2024 — well above the global average of 2%, Emirati state news agency Wam reported, citing government data.

UAE’s CEPA with India, Turkey are case in point: Non-oil trade between India and the UAE has surged 20% since the UAE-India trade agreement came into effect in 2022, Terner said. The UAE’s exports to India rose 75% by the end of 2024, he added. Since signing a CEPA with Turkey and Indonesia in 2023, Emirati trade with both countries has soared — with Turkey up 11% and Indonesia up 15%, Terner said.

What’s next? The UAE is forecast to ink a CEPA with South America’s Mercosur bloc — featuring Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia — by end-2025. The nation is also finalizing several local agreements with Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union, the EU, and Malaysia .

The question of China: The UAE is carrying out a balancing act in which “they maintain a close economic and diplomatic relationship with China but they don’t attract too much ire from President Trump,” AGBI reports, quoting Tulane University assistant professor Andrew Leber as saying. While China stands out as a major trading partner for the UAE, it is reasonable to assume that they will avoid forming a CEPA with them “for now,” he added.

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