Turkey seals another long-term supply pact for US LNG: Turkey’s state energy firm Botas has finalized a nine-year LNG supply pact with Woodside Energy for 5.8 bn cubic meters (bcm) of LNG a year starting in 2030. This marks the fifth major long-term agreement Botas has signed in 18 months, following pacts with ExxonMobil (2.5 mtpa), Shell (4 bcm/y), TotalEnergies (1.6 bcm/y), and Mercuria (4 bcm/y).

Why it matters: Turkey is hedging against Russia dependency

Turkey is working to diversify its energy sources as it comes under US and EU pressure to end its energy ties with Russia, its largest supplier over the last two decades, accounting for 37% of the Turkish market share in 2025.

The agreement could also be seen as part of Ankara’s effort to gain favor with the Trump administration as it pushes for LNG supremacy as part of its “America First” energy agenda. It is also part of Turkey’s commitment to take up nearly 1.5k LNG cargoes from the US over the next 15 years as part of what Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said is an effort to raise bilateral trade volumes to USD 100 bn — effectively positioning Ankara as a major customer for American energy exports.

This intentional trade diplomacy doesn’t only cover energy. Placing big jet orders from US-based manufacturer Boeing was on the rise as countries scrambled to appease Trump amid the US tariffs bonanza. Turkey’s flagship carrier placed an order for up to 75 Boeing 787 Dreamliners in September, and is considering another order for up to 150 737 Max jets.

What now? Well, the real question is whether buying that much LNG from the US would be enough to get the US off Ankara’s shoulders on several geopolitically sensitive issues, including its missiles and energy relations with Russia.

ICYMI- This is Turkey’s second long-term offtake for US LNG, after securing a 20-year contract for US LNG from Swiss-based commodity trader Mercuria earlier in September.

What’s next? Turkey is likely to sustain its Russia energy relations

Turkey’s endgame for Russia’s energy imports is yet to be fully clear, but the temporary extension will give it more buffer time to ramp up its supply diversification efforts before it considers closing the tap on Russian gas or, perhaps, even pursue further extensions, but on more favorable terms.

Remember the “Turkish blend” remarks? Earlier in October, Bayraktar boasted Turkey’s role in supplying Europe with natural gas through the Tanap pipeline in the Caspian Sea, adding that Ankara will be exporting surplus to Europe in what he described as the “Turkish blend” — created by mixing gas from different countries. The remarks, which are actually in line with new EU regulations on hydrogen and natural gas, raised concerns that Turkey may use this “Turkish blend” model to sneak Russian oil into the EU.

Background

Turkey appeared to be gearing up to let its Russia natural gas contracts for some 16 bcm expire this year, but the Turkish government extended its agreement with Gazprom for an extra year for an even larger volume of 22 bcm. This came despite securing 15 bcm worth of short and long-term gas supply pacts in September.

Ankara wants to cement its role as a re-exporter of natural gas to Europe, as it consumes less gas than its total capacity allows. Turkey’s natural gas consumption remains steady at approximately 50 bcm per year. Its robust infrastructure — consisting of five LNG import facilities — yields a spare import capacity of 25-30 bcm per year.

REMEMBER- The EU is weighing sanctions on Turkish terminals, such as an under-the-radar terminal operator called Turkis Enerji, suspected of funneling Russian fuel into Europe through back channels.

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