Breaking down non-oil private sector performance in the UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon: Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) tracking non-energy sectors were in the green territory in the three countries in October, as they all expanded at a slower pace than the previous month.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

UAE-

The UAE’s non-oil private sector grew at a softer pace in October, though remained above mid-year lows, supported by stronger business activity and a rise in new orders. The country’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI (pdf) dipped to 53.8 in October, from 54.2 a month earlier.

New orders soared in October, signalling the second consecutive month of demand recovery. This trend followed a low point for new business recorded in August, which was the weakest in four years. Firms attributed the expansion to an uptick in client numbers on the back of favorable economic conditions and expanded marketing efforts, as well as business intakes from foreign clients.

Growth remained above the survey’s historical trend for the third consecutive month in October, lifted by strong sales and the launch of new projects.

Purchasing activity inched up, with firms reporting the biggest increase in input buying since June, which contributed to stabilized inventory levels, following a downward trend throughout 3Q.

Input costs saw a modest increase during October as inflation cooled for the second month in a row, with only 4% of the surveyed firms reporting cost hikes. In turn, output inflation remained stable for the second consecutive month despite a marked increase in supplier prices, wages, and transport costs.

Backlog accumulation accelerated in October, reversing a three-month trend. This was mainly driven by capacity constraints due to elevated new business and the administrative delays.

Job creation grew at its slowest rate since March, which “partly reflected a relatively subdued level of business confidence,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote in the report. “In fact, the latest survey revealed that firms were the least optimistic in nearly three years,” he adds.

Why the drag? The main reason can be linked to a slowdown in hiring overseas labor, as well as a dip in construction projects across the GCC, which means fewer jobs are being created, TS Lombard analyst Hamzeh Al Gaood told EnterpriseAM, explaining that while absolute numbers are still growing, annual growth rates are slowing down. The UAE — outside of Dubai — is also still affected by oil prices and expectations of a supply glut, which could explain the more bearish sentiment, he added.

QATAR-

Non-oil activity in Qatar expanded at a softer pace again in October, with new business dipping at its fastest pace since January 2023, according to the S&P Global PMI (pdf). The country’s headline index fell to 50.6 in October, down from 51.5 in September, marking the lowest level in nine months, and the 22nd consecutive month that the index has remained above the 50.0 no-change threshold.

Key factors driving the negative dip: “The moderation in overall performance since September reflected a renewed decline in total activity and the fastest reduction in new work since January 2023.” S&P Global’s Trevor Balchin stated in the report. “These negative influences on the headline PMI, along with shorter suppliers’ delivery times, were offset by a further rapid gain in employment and, to a lesser extent, rising input stocks,” he added.

New orders saw their fifth consecutive monthly decline in October, weighing on business activities amid a notable plummet in construction demand.

Output in the non-oil private sector marked its second drop in three months in October. Sub-sector data attributed the decline to a sharp slip in construction activity, according to the report.

Job creation accelerated at its third-highest rate in the survey’s history. Companies expanded their teams in an attempt to boost their capacity and fulfill the heavy workloads. Employment showed an increase among the four monitored sectors, which include manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail, and services, with manufacturing topping the records for the third consecutive month.

Purchasing activity grew for the fourth consecutive month, resulting in a “sustained rise in inventories.” Supply chains showed more resilience in October, with lead times hitting their fastest degree since May, “as firms reported competition among vendors,” the report explains.

Input costs saw a slight drop in October despite the rise in wage costs and average purchase prices. To maintain competitiveness and attract senior talent, Qatari companies have raised staff wages. Meanwhile, prices charged for goods and services recorded a significant decline, reversing September’s spike, according to the report.

Firms’ sentiment for business activity for the year ahead softened to a three-month low, but remained positive, despite the drop in output and new orders rates. Companies pointed to a rebound in construction, a resilient real estate sector, population growth, international investment, and tourism as key factors behind their positive outlook.

The GCC at large: “The non-oil activity in the Gulf region remained robust, but it is expected that it will not last any longer, particularly for Saudi Arabia”, Capital Economics’ James Swanston wrote in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. “Weaker oil export receipts will reinforce the need for fiscal consolidation and will more than offset any boost from looser monetary policy, resulting in softer non-oil GDP growth,” he added.

LEBANON-

The Lebanese non-oil private sector continued to expand in October, but at a slower rate than the month prior, according to Blominvest Bank’s Lebanon PMI (pdf). The country’s headline PMI inched down to 50.6, compared to 51.2 in September.

New orders and business activity also showed softer growth compared to September, which is attributed to rising uncertainty. Export orders, meanwhile, continued to decline for the eighth consecutive month, although October’s drop was “only marginal and the softest” since the decline began in March.

On a positive note, job creation recorded its first increase since February, with employment in the private sector rising at the fastest pace seen in 12 years. Consequently, October saw a rise in wage costs, although the increase was marginal.

Input costs grew at the beginning of 4Q, but at a slower pace than the previous month, as businesses spent more on food, transportation, commodities, and electrical components. However, price acceleration eased compared to September, causing firms to be “less aggressive in their own price setting.”

Output volumes hit an eight-month peak amid the slowed price inflation. Firms expanded their stocks of inventory, continuing the trend started in July. The pickup in inventories came despite supply chain disruptions leading to an increase in average lead times, which are now at their longest in nearly a year, caused by delays in customs.

Sentiment still lagging: Even as they broadly reported better conditions in October, “surveyed businesses turned more pessimistic towards the year-ahead outlook for business activity, with concerns of an escalation in regional tensions leading to apprehension among Lebanese companies.”

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