Good morning, folks. We’re kicking off the week with a packed issue, led by Green Dome Investments’ move to acquire cold-chain logistics outfit Transcorp Int’l, as well as a spate of port and zones projects updates from Morocco, Egypt, and the UK. But first, a look into the latest updates on the global trade front as the US ramps up truce efforts with Asian nations…

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- All eyes are on US-Asia ties this morning, as the US and China look closer to agreeing on a truce on tariffs that would do away with the US’ 100% tariff on Chinese imports, which are scheduled for 1 November, and delay China’s rare earth export controls for a year. US officials say a framework has already been hashed out for US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to ratify when they meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Thursday.

Trump is still covering his bases with agreements with other Southeast Asia partners, with the hope of relaxing trade barriers and expanding US access to rare earth elements. The agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia come as the US looks to diversify its critical minerals supply chains, Bloomberg reports.

The story grabbed a lot of attention in the int’l press: Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | CNN | The Guardian

Meanwhile, the US announces higher tariffs on Canadian goods: US President Donald Trump announced a 10% increase in tariffs on Canada — currently, imports from the country are subject to a baseline 35% tariff — in response to a television ad sponsored by Canada’s Ontario province, featuring former Republican US President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs as harmful to the economy. “Their Advertisement was to be taken down, IMMEDIATELY, but they let it run last night during the World Series, knowing that it was a FRAUD,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. A day earlier, the US president had ended all trade negotiations with Canada because of the ad, which he referred to as “fraud” and “hostile.”

This story received some int’l ink: Reuters | Associated Press | Wall Street Journal | New York Times | Bloomberg | The Guardian

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Aramco tests a pivot back to pre-2024 supply routes: Aramco has shipped 2 mn bbl of Arab Medium crude last month from its Juaymah Gulf coast to its Jazan refinery for the first time since July last year, Mees reported, citing Kpler data. This comes one year after Aramco halted the route — which saw oil moved by tankers from the Arabian Gulf through Bab al-Mandeb strait towards Jazan on the Red Sea — to hedge against possible Houthi attacks. Jazan facility — which boasts 400k bbl per day capacity — sits less than 100 km off Yemen.

BACKGROUND- Jazan facility started receiving its Arab Medium with supplies from Yanbu, which is located North of Jazan overlooking the Red Sea. The Yanbu blends mix Arab Light and Arab Heavy to mimic Arab Medium quality — the only feedstock that Jazan refinery is equipped to process. So far this month, Jazan has taken 12.8 mn bbl of crude from Yanbu — 9.6 mn Arab Light and 3.2 mn Arab Heavy — indicating the Yanbu blend remains the dominant feed, Mees said.

Why does this matter for crude markets? A scenario of a full switch back to Gulf-to-Jazan flows would free incremental Arab Light — and smaller Heavy volumes — for export while tightening Arab Medium availability by 400k bbl per day, Mees added.

REMEMBER- Saudi ships were not targeted by the Houthis during its Red Sea quasi-blockade over the last year, and the Kingdom continued to use the Bab al-Mandeb corridor to move crude and refined products to Asia via Bab-al-mandeb and other refining facilities on the Red Sea.

AND- The Kingdom has substantial bypass capacity through a network of pipeline infrastructure in case of Bab al-Mandeb or Hormuz straits closures. One key bypass is the 1.2k km East-West pipeline that stretches from Abqaiq near the Gulf to a Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, Mees reported. The pipeline itself has a 5 mn bpd capacity, with the option to expand at short notice to 7 mn bpd.

#2- Russian oil + gas en route to Syria: Russia is slated to deliver 750k bbl of a mix of Arctic heavy ARCO oil and gas condensate to Syria’s Banias port, Reuters reported last week, citing traders and LSEG data. A Russian vessel — Antarktika — dropped anchor near Banias port after a visit to Russia’s Murmansk and Ust-Luga ports to load oil and condensate provided by Gazprom Neft and Novatek, LSEG data showed. Both Russian oil and gas condensate fall under international sanctions.

Not the first time this year: Russia boosted its Syria-bound oil supplies from Arctic facilities, delivering some 140k tons of oil to Banias port back in June through the sanctioned Russian tanker Mitzel. Moscow is said to be on the lookout for new buyers, after its major energy players faced sanctions in January and as recently as last week.

#3- Chinese smart truck firm Trunk joins NextGen FDI: Trunk, a Beijing-based provider of autonomous solutions for commercial vehicles, is the latest firm to join the UAE’s NextGen FDI initiative — a national program launched in 2022 to attract global tech players to the Emirates, according to a press release. Trunk will establish its regional HQ in the Emirates, from which it is set to launch logistics operations next year. The Chinese player is looking to produce 2k smart trucks and will oversee the manufacturing, operation, upkeep, and sales of the vehicles.

BACKGROUND- The UAE has seen several firms join the NextGen FDI program in recent months. Singapore-based engineering solutions firm Quest Global joined in July, with plans to build engineering centers to support the energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing sectors. AI solutions provider DoxAI came on board at the start of the year, as did US-based energy data analytics firm Welligence and AI and machine learning firm Qualcomm.

#4- Regionally-backed London Heathrow to finalize airport expansion scheme in November: The UK’s London Heathrow Airport is currently reviewing two schemes for its planned expansion that will add a third runway, with a final decision to be made on the schemes by November, according to a statement released last week. The two expansion schemes under consideration — submitted by Heathrow Airport Limited and Arora Group — aim to ensure the project meets key criteria, including noise, air quality, economic growth, and climate change, while assessing feasibility pathways on integrating new infrastructure, financiability, and land acquisitions.

REMEMBER- The expansion — targeting an operational start in 2035 — will be funded by private investors, and its investment ticket is set to be “significantly” higher than the GBP 14 proposed back in 2014.

Regional backers: The airport is backed by the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), with PIF owning 15% and QIA a 20% stake.

ICYMI- London Heathrow announced plans to invest GBP 2.3 bn into upgrading its airport facilities over the next two years last December. The figure is significantly higher than previous investment forecast, which was set at GBP 244 mn.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices surged this morning, propped up by news that the US and China are close to signing off on a trade pact framework, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up by USD 0.46 to USD 66.40 / bbl as of 00:27 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose USD 0.46 to trade at USD 61.96 / bbl. The rise followed a surge during previous sessions that saw Brent go up by a total of 8.9% and WTI by 7.7%.

#2- Baltic index on a downward spiral: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — eased 3.2% to 1,991 on Friday, its lowest since 10 October. The capesize fell 6.2% to 2,871, while the panamax index remained steady at 1,924 points. The smaller supramax index shed 9 points to 1,369.

#3- The Drewry World Container Index increased by 3% to USD 1,746 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. The drop comes on the back of market turbulence driven by the US’ tariff policies since April. The container forecaster projects the supply-demand balance to fall in the next quarters, causing spot rates to fall further.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Adipec Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference on Monday, 3 November until Thursday, 6 November in Abu Dhabi. The conference will host over 250k attendees working in government entities, finance, and tech.

The UAE will host the Air Cargo Forum on Tuesday, 4 November until Thursday, 6 November in Abu Dhabi. The forum — hosted by Etihad Cargo — will bring together air freight industry leaders, policymakers, innovators, and stakeholders to discuss industry solutions, tech, strategies, and collaborative initiatives for global air logistics.

Egypt will host the TransMea Expo on Sunday, 9 November until Tuesday, 11 November in Cairo. The expo will host regional and international players in the transport industry to explore tech, new smart solutions and products for transport and logistics services.

The UAE will host the Dubai Airshow on Monday, 17 November until Friday, 21 November in Dubai. The event will host over 1.5k exhibitors and 148k industry experts from over 150 countries, to discuss air mobility, new MRO breakthroughs, sustainable aviation, startups and new tech for aircraft simulations.

Saudi Arabia will host the ShipTek International Conference and Awards on Tuesday, 18 November in Al Khobar. The conference will host policy makers, organizations, suppliers and experts on maritime, offshore and oil and gas.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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