Suez Canal transit is projected to pick up in early 2026 — driven by the easing of regional tensions and a positive regional growth forecast from the IMF, Secretary General of the Cairo Chamber of Commerce’s International Transport and Logistics Division Amr Al Samdoni told EnterpriseAM. Shipping lines have been encouraged by the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and are “developing quarterly plans” on the premise that the war and Houthi attacks cease completely, he added. The ease in tensions will force shipping players to return to the shipping channel, Al Samdoni predicts, in a bid to speed up supply chains and the arrival of goods.

But shipping lines will still wait for “at least three months of stability and security in the waterway” before making concrete plans to return, Al Samdoni said. Shippine lines are still cautious about returning to the Suez Canal and are waiting for “all safety measures to be in place,” a shipping agency source told EnterpriseAM.

The expected return of traffic to the Suez Canal would be welcome news for the country’s FX reserves and overall revenues, as well as contributing to an easing of global inflation, Al Samdoni told us. Transfers through the Suez Canal would ease global shipping costs and time, as it “guarantees a transit time of 28 to 30 days — vessels used to take between 60 to 70 days when traveling via the Cape of Good Hope.”

Al Mashat’s take: “My expectation would be that [the canal’s] contribution [to growth] is at least zero, not negative anymore by June of next year … We might be surprised on the upside again, depending on how fast trade can come through the canal,” Planning Minister Rania Al Mashat told Reuters.

REMEMBER- Suez Canal receipts fell 45.5% y-o-y to USD 3.6 bn during the previous fiscal year, with net tonnage down 55.1% and vessel transits falling 38.5% amid Red Sea disruptions.

Shipping agencies want a little extra push: Shipping agencies are seeking incentives, Egyptian International Air Freight Forwarders Association (FIATA) VP Ahmed Mustafa told EnterpriseAM. The Suez Canal “should listen to agencies’ demands and offer incentives not only on transit fees but also for logistics services across the corridor to attract investments,” he added.

…but incentives are already in place: The Suez Canal Authority extended its 15% reduction on container ship crossing fees until the end of 2025 in a bid to encourage traffic through the strait. The canal also introduced a markdown on container vessels with a net load over 130k tons back in May — initially for 90 days.

The Red Sea route is already seeing some healthy signs of return, with Suez Canal transits growing by some 33% y-o-y so far this year, Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco) Chief Analyst Niels Rasmussen told TradeWinds in September. “The ratio between deadweight transiting the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope has year to date increased to 1.44 from 1.09 in 2024,” Rasmussen said.

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