Good morning, folks. The newscyle has picked up a little, leaving us with an issue covering debt, aviation, and shipping updates from different UAE players. We also have the latest IATA projections for the airline industry earnings this year — and it looks good given this year’s uncertainties. Let’s dive right in.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The final allocation for Flynas’ IPO will be announced today, after subscriptions for the 30% stake closed on June 1. Shares of the company are set to be eventually traded on Tadawul’s main market.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Saudi budget carrier flyadeal has slammed Airbus for delivery delays, Reuters reports, quoting CEO Steven Greenway on the sidelines of an International Airline Trade Association (IATA) summit in the Indian capital New Delhi. The carrier was poised to receive four narrow-body jets in 1H 2025 — of which it only received two, already beyond schedule — and three other jets in 4Q. The company is also predicting delays for its order of 10 widebody A330neos. Per the agreement, the first A330neo is meant to be on the final production line in December 2026.

Flyadeal isn’t the only disgruntled customer: Dubai-based Emirates CEO Tim Clark also criticized Boeing and Airbus for prolonged supply delays, which are holding back fleet upgrades, on the sidelines of the summit earlier this week — highlighting the six-year delay of Boeing’s 777X delivery.

REMEMBER- Airbus just whispered it to the jet stream: The European manufacturer alerted airlines last week to expect a more than three-year delay for several deliveries due to continued supply chain disruptions. The aviation giant is planning to delay some deliveries to 2027-28 amid mounting pressure to work toward its goal of delivering 75 of its flagship models each month. Other deliveries set for later in the decade are already being hit with six-month deferments.

IN OTHER AVIATION NEWS- Iraqi Airways is set to add eight Boeing B787-8 Dreamliner and 10 737 MAX aircraft to its fleet by 2027, Transport Ministry spokesperson Maitham Al Safi told INA on Saturday. The airline has recently received 13 aircraft — including five Airbus A220s, six 737 MAXs, and two B787-8 Dreamliner jets — bringing its modern additions to 31 jets. The company currently boasts a fleet size of 39 planes.

#2- Russia has ramped up its Syria-bound supplies of oil from arctic facilities, Reuters reported last week, citing an industry source. The sanctioned Russian tanker Mitzel loaded up some 140k tons of oil in the Arctic port of Murmansk and is making its way to Syria’s Baniyas port — which has already obtained several cargoes of Arctic-sourced oil, the source added. Moscow is seeking new buyers for its oil since its major crude oil player Gazprom Neft and affiliated tankers were hit with US sanctions earlier this year.

An alternative to Iranian crude: Russian oil is flowing into Syria months after the Arab nation’s imports of Iranian oil reportedly ceased following the toppling of former President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, S&P Global reported.

#3- PCFC, Presight, Ghana ink digital infrastructure MoU: Dubai’s Ports, Customs and Freezone Corporation (PCFC), Ghana’s Communication Digital Technology and Innovations Ministry (MoCDTI), and G42-backed data analytics firm Presight AI have signed an MoU to form a Ghana-UAE economic zone and technology hub in Accra, according to an MoCDTI announcement.

The details: The zone will be established in a 25-sq-km area with PCFC leading the development and operation of the zone, as well as taking charge of the digital infrastructure according to a press release. The entities will also jointly work on property development, and industrial and technological infrastructure for the development which aims to attract tech-focused firms and investment to support Ghana’s digital transformation.

ALSO- Presight has Malaysia on its mind: Presight AI and Malaysia’s state-owned Madani AI are set to work together to develop AI solutions, develop sovereign cloud infrastructure, and roll out “applications for digital transformation” for government efficiency in Malaysia, according to a statement. This partnership marks Presight AI Holding’s first major venture into the Southeast Asian region.

#4- UAE customers bear the brunt of heightened container prices: UAE buyers are facing price hikes amid a surge in shipping costs driven by the US-Sino trade war and export scramble, vice chairman of Danube Group Anis Sajan told Khaleej Times. “Shipping costs have more than doubled over the past 10 to 15 days. We used to pay between USD 1k to USD 1.4k per container, but now we’re being quoted USD 2k to USD 3k,” Sajan added. The hike will likely impact firms that will not be able to sustain the high costs, indicating that UAE residents are likely to “see prices increase in certain goods, particularly imported building materials and essential items,” Sajan noted.

Traders struggle to find availability: A temporary relaxation of tariffs between the two countries has not only shot up prices but also tightened container availability. “In some cases, we’re willing to pay double, but we still can’t secure containers,” he added. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable, with the spike in costs and delays impacting their supply chains.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices went up this morning amid concerns of shortened supplies after news emerged that Iran is set to reject the US proposal for a nuclear agreement, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were up USD 0.21 to reach USD 64.84 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed USD 0.27 to hit USD 62.79 a barrel by 04.37 GMT.

Opec+’s decision to hike production in July is being interpreted differently by major banks, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley offering diverging forecasts on whether the group will extend its output increases beyond August, Bloomberg reported (here and here).

Goldman Sachs, which had expected a pause in August, now projects a fourth consecutive hike next month. The bank expects Opec+ to hold quotas steady from September onward as non-Opec supply rises and economic growth slows in 3Q, but it said risks are skewed toward more increases. Goldman maintained its Brent forecast at USD 60 a barrel for the rest of this year and USD 56 in 2026, with WTI trading at a USD 4 discount.

MEANWHILE- Morgan Stanley sees a different trajectory, expecting three more hikes through October, but noting the actual output is unlikely to match those targets. The bank highlighted that only two-thirds of May’s quota hike materialized and forecasts that the gap between quota and physical supply will persist, averaging only 50k bbl / d in additional actual barrels through year-end. The bank maintained its Brent forecast at USD 57.5 in 2H 2025 and USD 55 in 1H 2026.

Market reax: Brent futures for August climbed to USD 64.6 a barrel and WTI rose to USD 62.7 following Opec+’s last meeting, Bloomberg reported separately. The gains were supported by geopolitical tensions around Russia and Iran, which could limit additional sanctioned barrels from entering the market.

ALSO- Saudi Arabia and Algeria nip LPG prices again: Aramco and Sonatrach decided to reduce June’s official selling price (OSPs) for liquefied petroleum gas between 1.6% and 11.2% — compared to May — on the back of rising global supply, Reuters reports, citing traders. Aramco lowered its propane price by 1.6% to USD 600 per metric ton, and butane price by about 3.4% to USD 570.

#2- Baltic index on an upwards trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — was up 0.3% to 1,422 points on Monday. The capesize index rose 1% to 2,300 points, while the panamax index fell 1% to 1,107points. The smaller supramax index remains steady at 951.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

France will host the International Paris Air Show from Monday, 16 June to Sunday, 22 June in Paris. The event will host 300k visitors to view some 2.5k exhibitors from 48 countries, 300 start-ups and 150 air carriers on display – all showcasing cutting-edge tech in the aviation field.

Turkey will host the Eurasia Rail from Wednesday, 18 June to Thursday, 19 June in Istanbul. The event will host 7.7k visitors interested in Turkey’s railway sector or are railway technology buyers, and will feature engineering, products and services from both private and public sectors.

Greece will host the East Med Maritime Conference on Thursday, 19 June in Athens. The event will showcase new developments and tech in the shipping, logistics and offshore field – hosting an array of key leaders, exports, port operators and shippers in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host Middle East Rail from Tuesday, 24 June to Thursday, 25 June in Dubai. The conference at Dubai World Trade Center will host over 250 speakers and a multi-brand exhibition for transport solutions.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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