Good morning, friends. We are heading into the weekend with a substantially light read, with updates on a UAE trade milestone and a refreshing PMI report from Lebanon. The US is also raising pressure on Iran, with repercussions for neighbors and the shipping industry. Shall we?

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Iran in the lion’s den once again: The US is ramping up economic pressure on Iran, ordering “maximum pressure” on the country in a bid to curtail its alleged pursuit of a nuclear weapon, including by cutting its oil exports to “zero,” according to a statement from Washington.

It is not over yet: More sanctions and enforcement mechanisms for existing ones could soon be enacted on Iran and Iran-linked businesses. You could also see some sanctions waivers, including humanitarian ones, rescinded.

Adding Arab states to the mix? Trump has warned Iran about skirting sanctions through the “Iraqi financial system” and that “Gulf countries are not used as sanctions evasion transshipment points,” according to a separate statement.

What does it mean for Iraq? Iraq is one of the countries benefiting from Iran sanctions waivers to allow it to purchase Iranian electricity. The US has granted Iraq this waiver regularly since 2018 on the condition that Iraqi payments are only used for “humanitarian” spending in Iran, Al-Monitor reported back in July. The latest waiver was issued in November and is set to expire in March this year, Reuters reported in November.

What does it mean for oil trade and shippers? The US government has warned businesses in the shipping industry and port operators of risking sanctions for violating the US sanctions regime on Iran by moving Iranian oil and other exports. Expect detailed compliance guidance for businesses soon from the US Treasury Department.

#2- Egypt has three new logistic zones in the pipeline: The Egyptian Cabinet passed a draft presidential decree allocating land plots to the General Authority for Land and Dry Ports to set up logistics zones in Qena, Matrouh, and Toshka, according to a cabinet statement. No further details were disclosed about the plans.

AND- Safaga Port expansion gets land plots allocation: The cabinet also approved a draft presidential decree allocating state-owned plots in the Red Sea Governorate to the General Authority for Red Sea Ports to carry out planned expansions to Safaga Port. The expansion includes a new multipurpose container terminal and a logistics zone.

#3- Europe’s dependence on US LNG imports under spotlight amid tariffs threat: The EU — whose 43% of its annual LNG imports came from the US in 2024 — should work towards securing a freetrade agreement with the US to secure uninterrupted inflows of US LNG shipments given the current unpredictable trade environment, Reuters reported, citing TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne’s remarks to reporters.

The concern: Although Trump indicated last month (watch, runtime: 6:40) that he would ensure the security of LNG supplies to Europe, “what happens if all of a sudden the US decides they must export less than they’ve done historically?… We must not pass from a so-called over-dependence on Russia to an over-dependence on another country, even if it’s an ally,” Pouyanne said.

In Context: TotalEnergies is Europe’s largest exporter of US’ LNG, with more than 10 mn tons under contract.

REMEMBER- Trump has said that he would “absolutely” launch tariffs on goods coming from the EU “pretty soon,” but that no timeline has been set.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Crude prices saw a slight uptick on the back of major oil producer Aramco’s decision to raise March prices, but the uptick was still not enough to offset yesterday’s major drop, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures increased by USD 0.08 to USD 74.69 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also saw an uptick of USD 0.15 to USD 71.18 a barrel by 04.22 GMT.

#2- Baltic index on an upward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — grew 2.4% to 771 on Wednesday. The capesize index dipped by 32 points to 812, while the panamax index gained 87 points to 988. The smaller supramax index rose by 14 points to 619.

PSA-

CMA CGM updates intra-Med shipping schedule: French shipping giant CMA CGM has rearranged its med pendulum service (MPS) schedule for intra-Mediterranean shipping starting 10 March, according to its MPS flyer (pdf). The weekly service will deploy six vessels with a 1.4k to 1.8k TEU capacity and will connect 18 ports across the Mediterranean.

That’s not all: CMA CGM is launching a service connecting Egypt, Greece, and Algeria — dubbed EGAL — starting 12 February, according to a company flyer (pdf). The new intra-med service will begin in Alexandria and will directly connect the three Mediterranean countries.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, a heavy lift workshop, a chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

The UAE will host the MRO Middle East and Aircraft Interiors from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. MRO Middle East will host leaders in aircraft maintenance, repair, and operations to explore the latest technologies and strategies in the industry.

The UAE will host the Sustainable Aviation Futures MENA forum from Monday, 10 February to Wednesday, 12 February in Abu Dhabi. The event aims to promote SAF partnerships, raise awareness, and support the integration of clean energy and sustainability in the aviation sector. The two-day forum will host key figures in the aviation industry, including notable speakers from Lufthansa Group, ACI World, Saudia Group, Arab Air Carriers’ Organization (AACO), and DHL Express.

The UAE will host the WCA Worldwide Conference from Tuesday, 25 February to Saturday, 1 March in Dubai. The event — set to bring together over 4.5k freight forwarders from 179 countries — will host several workshops and courses over one week.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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