How non-oil private sectors in UAE + Qatar fared in January

Purchasing manager indices (PMI) tracking non-energy private sectors in the two countries expanded at the start of the year, albeit at a slower pace. The UAE’s reading saw a slight drop, holding well in the growth territory, while Qatar witnessed a considerable slip in its headline PMI, remaining just above the 50.0 mark threshold.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

First up, the UAE: The UAE’s non-oil activity slowed down slightly in January from the nine-month high achieved in December, with the sector continuing to see robust expansions in activity and new business, according to S&P Global UAE PMI (pdf). The headline figure reached 55.0, down from 55.4 in December. This is the first dip in the UAE’s headline figure in three months.

New orders dropped slightly from last month’s nine-month high: The new orders subindex eased slightly to 59.0 in January, down from 59.3 in the previous month, with businesses reporting an uplift in domestic demand, Reuters writes. Meanwhile, growth in new export orders nearly stalled, with businesses reporting that the rise in demand was mainly domestic-driven. Consequently, output rates rose sharply on the back of a strong sales upturn.

Improved sales had little impact on hiring, with companies reporting a negligible increase in new employment. “A persistently low rate of employment growth suggests that firms are lacking the ability to hire in order to tackle backlog issues,” S&P Global senior economist David Owen said.

Cooling inflation caused firms to up input purchases: Input cost inflation fell to a 13-month low in January, which came “despite evidence of higher costs for transport and machinery” as well as a faster rise in salaries. A slowdown in inflation helped businesses boost their purchases of inputs, which firms used to “service existing orders rather than build up warehouses,” with inventories only seeing marginal growth during the month.

Business sentiment was low despite positive results: Firms’ optimism about future activity in the UAE hit its lowest mark in over two years, with just 9% of participants predicting growth over the next year. Many firms cited “robust competition” as one of the key factors holding back optimism in the country. “Strong competition and cash flow concerns arising from heavy backlogs have appeared to sow doubt among firms that they can continue to boost their revenues,” Owen said.

Over in Qatar: Qatar’s non-oil private sector growth slowed for the first time in four months in January, driven by a drop in new orders and overall output, according to Qatar Financial Center PMI (pdf). The nation’s headline figure fell to 50.2, down from 52.9 in December, keeping it just above the 50.0 threshold indicating growth. This is Qatar’s lowest reading since December 2023.

New orders were down in January, while output fell slightly overall last month for only the fourth time since 2H 2020. Meanwhile, purchasing activity slowed with firms optimizing inventories with a reduction in stock levels recorded for the first time in four months.

Employment growth also slowed in January, but jobs over the past five months have increased at a rate faster than in any previous period in survey history. Average wages and salaries also hit a new record during the month, exceeding a peak previously set last September, according to the report.

“The drop in the PMI mainly reflected a decline in new business, only the second of the past two years. But this was heavily driven by the construction sector, with manufacturing and wholesale & retail recording further robust increases in new orders,” S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Economics Director Tyler Balchin said.

It’s not all bad for Qatar: “The one bright spot in Qatar’s case is that the future output component jumped to a four-month high,” Capital Economics said in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.

Qatari firms remain optimistic: Qatar firms were more confident about the 12-month outlook at the start of 2025, with sentiment bouncing back to a four-month high and above the long-run trend, particularly among manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Companies also expect market conditions to improve, especially in sectors including tourism, industrial development and real estate.