Good morning, folks. We have a packed issue today to kick off the week with updates rolling in from across the region and beyond, but first an international trade update ahead of Trump’s inauguration later today….

THE BIG LOGISTICS STORY- The EU and Mexico have reached a political agreement to expand their 25-year-old trade accord after nine years of stalled negotiations. The agreement — catapulted by the looming threat of US tariffs with Trump’s inauguration — will reduce barriers for EU companies wishing to operate in Mexico and remove or lower barriers on new sectors, such as services and agricultural products, according to a statement.

What’s in the cards? Mexican EVs will also be exported to the EU duty-free, given they contain 60% European or Mexican components. The EU will also lower its quotas on Mexican beef, poultry, and ethanol exports. The EU is also set to benefit, with Mexico granting its companies the same treatment as Mexican firms and its agricultural products — such as milk powder, cheese, pasta, jams, and pork — getting zero tariffs with some quotas applied.

In context: Mexico is especially vulnerable to tariffs from the US, its biggest trading partner, given that it sends 80% of its exports to the US. Both countries’ trade volume stood at over USD 800 bn in 2023, way above the EU-Mexico trade volume of USD 84 bn. While some analysts — including Gabriela Siller of Banco Base — believe the agreement would help the country diversify its partners and reduce US “hegemonic power” in trade, the country would still be hard hit when Trump rolls out the planned 25% tariffs.

The story grabbed ink in the international press: Reuters | AP News | Financial Times | Bloomberg | The Wall Street Journal | Politico | EU News

^^ We have more int’l trade updates in the wake of Trump’s threats in the news well, below.

AK-SHIPS IS LINING UP NEW PARTNERSHIPS- Our friends at AK-Ships are lining up a partnership agreement with Polish ship building firm Rivan Engineering next month. The company intends to capitalize on Rivan’s integration of advanced tech, including nanotech. Rivan offers several services including consultancy, repairs, and project management. EnterpriseAM Logistics will have all the details on the new partnership next month.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The five-day World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting will kick off today in Davos, Switzerland. The event will bring together about 3k leaders from over 130 countries to address global challenges, including geopolitical tensions, economic growth, technological advancements, and energy transitions.

Who’s there from the region? KSA and UAE are sending big delegations. The Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan will lead a delegation including ministers of tourism, investment, finance, economy and planning, industry and mineral resources, and communications and information technology, SPA reports. The UAE is also sending a big delegation of 100 leaders from the government and the private sector led by the Chairperson of Dubai Culture and Arts Authority (Dubai Culture) Sheikha Latifa bint Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Wam reports. The GCC’s Secretary General Jasem Mohamed AlBudaiwi is also going, according to a statement.

The forum will also include President-elect Donald Trump joining via a live video, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, WAM reports. It will also feature 350 government leaders and 60 heads of state and government.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Mubadala gets the greenlight to restructure Getir: Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala is set to restructure Turkish delivery startup Getir after receiving the green light from the company’s shareholders at an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on Sunday, Bloomberg reports, citing an emailed statement. The wealth fund applied for sole ownership of Getir’s grocery and food delivery businesses with Turkish antitrust authorities back in September, after acquiring a controlling stake in the company back in June, leading a USD 250 mn funding round tied to the company’s restructuring.

Under Mubadala’s restructuring plan, Getir’s profitable local grocery delivery operations would be separated from the company’s noncore businesses. The Abu Dhabi fund says the move is necessary to stabilize the company, whose valuation fell to USD 2.5 bn in 2023 from USD 11.8 bn in 2022 amid cashburn and exits from key markets, including the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and the US.

REFRESHER- Getir founder Nazim Salur initiated legal action to challenge Mubadala’s move to seek full control of Getir last week, which he described as an “illegal coup” aimed at reducing the founders’ stake to zero, urging Mubadala to uphold the June agreement to split Getir into two entities. Though the company’s other co-founders, Serkan Borancili and Tuncay Tutek, have not commented publicly, a source with direct knowledge of the planned lawsuit told Reuters that the founders claimed Mubadala “intentionally delayed” transferring units to them and reneged on the agreement at the end of last year.

Salur is not backing down: In an X post, the company’s founder labeled the EGM as “unlawful,” pointing out that only two out of nine board members participated in the resolution to call the meeting. Sulur plans to challenge the decision in courts in the Netherlands, Turkey, and England, with a hearing on the matter scheduled for 24 January at the Enterprise Chamber of the Amsterdam Court of Appeal.

#2- Egypt may be getting a new USD 1.5 bn textile freezone: Egypt’s General Authority for Investment and Freezones (GAFI) is looking into setting up a freezone in Minya governorate to house textile projects from a Chinese investment alliance eyeing USD 1.5 bn in initial investments, GAFI head Hossam Heiba told Hapi Journal. The authority is mulling allocating 1 mn sqm for the project, down from the alliance’s ask of 2-3 mn sqm, Heiba added.

Chinese investor appetite for Egypt seems to already be emerging as a trend in 2025, with the just few weeks of the year bring news of an up to USD 10 bn — not a typo — phosphate fertilizer complex planned for Upper Egypt, a USD 60 mn textiles factory in Sadat City’s Industria Sadat zone, and a USD 135 mn auto factory expansion, to name but a few.

#3- Libya has plans for boosting oil production: Libya needs USD 3 bn to USD 4 bn to boost oil production to 1.6 mn barrels per day (bpd), up from the latest figure of 1.4 mn, interim Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Abdulsadek told Reuters in a report published on Sunday.

Libya plans first oil exploration bidding round after over a 17-year hiatus, with the Cabinet expected to approve the round before the end of this month, Abdulsadek said. The licenses will cover three sedimentary basins — Sirte, Murzuq, and Ghadames — and feature 15 to 21 blocks. The move comes as the country — whose economic output is 95% from oil — pushes for reconstruction after over a decade of conflict.

There is potential: Around 70% of the country’s total land area and over 65% of its territorial waters are yet to be explored, former chief of National Oil Farhat Bengdara said.

#4- UAE + Russia step closer to sign double taxation avoidance agreement: The UAE’s Finance Ministry has finalized the final round of negotiations for a dual taxation avoidance agreement on income and capital with Russia, with the two sides completing the initial signing of a draft agreement in the matter, Wam reported on Friday. The agreement aims to protect taxpayers’ rights, prevent double taxation, and promote investment and the seamless flow of trade, according to the news agency.

This isn’t the first such agreement to be signed by UAE recently: A mutual taxation agreement between the UAE and Bahrain received unanimous approval from the Bahraini Shura Council, last week, with the aim of protecting individuals and companies from double taxation. The Finance Ministry also previously signed agreements with Bahrain, Egypt, and Kuwait at the World Government Summit last year to eliminate dual taxation, with an eye to crack down on tax evasion.

IN OTHER EMIRATI TRADE NEWS- UAE + Kenya to triple meat and horticultural trade: A CEPA agreement signed by the UAE and Kenya last week could triple the African country’s meat and horticultural exports to the Emirates, a top trade ministry official in the African nation told Bloomberg on Friday. Kenya exported some USD 80 mn worth of meat and horticulture products to the UAE in 2024.

And there’s more: The economic partnership is also expected to facilitate oil trade by simplifying export procedures and providing a framework for investment and dispute resolution, principal secretary for trade of Kenya Alfred K’Ombudo told Bloomberg.

#5- A GCC-UK freetrade agreement (FTA) could be finalized within a week in London, Aleqtisadiah reported on Friday, citing a UK government spokesman. A delegation from the six GCC states will finalize the FTA, which could add GBP 8.6 bn annually to the trade balance between the UK and the GCC, up 16%, with a focus on technology, AI, and renewable energy.

We knew this was coming: The talks reportedly entered their final stages in November. GCC nations have been working on the draft agreement since 2022, which could be followed by individual trade pacts between the UK and GCC countries.

AND- Saudi and Thai Trade officials talk freetrade: Saudi Commerce Minister Majed Al Qasabi and Thai Trade representative Nalinee Thavisi discussed a potential FTA between Thailand and the GCC, according to Thailand’s The Nation. No further details on the meeting were provided.

#6- Riyadh Air delays launch to 3Q 2025 amid Boeing delivery setbacks: PIF-owned Riyadh Air opted to push back its launch to 3Q 2025 from early this year after facing delays in its Boeing aircraft order, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. The delivery delay is expected to see the airline receive as many as four Boeing 787 Dreamliners this year — half of the original delivery.

REMEMBER- Riyadh Air also placed an order of 60 Airbus A321neos in October which are scheduled to arrive between 2H 2026 and 2030. The startup airline is also to place a new wide-body jet order by 1H 2025 to further expand its fleet, eyeing the Boeing 777X and Airbus A350-1000.

Turbulence in the aviation sector: Boeing’s 2024 was marred by delivery delays and general supply chain disruptions, which are set to persist well into 2025. Lags in the aviation supply chain are impacting the sector at a global scale amid shortages of spare parts and issues with engine maintenance. Analysts expect the aviation sector’s challenges will persist for years with no quick resolution in sight.

ON A RELATED NOTE- Morgan Stanley boosted its outlook for Airbus last week raising its share price target to EUR 200 from EUR 160 while retaining an overweight rating on the stock, Investing reported on Thursday. Morgan Stanely labeled the company its Top Pick in the aviation sector in 2025, boosting market confidence in the company’s medium-term delivery capacity and potentially resulting in a reassessment of the stock’s value.

However, Airbus’ narrowbody aircraft deliveries in 1H 2025 will still be constrained by engine supply chain problems, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury told Bloomberg.

On the flip side, market confidence in Boeing took a dip, as the firm fell short of its delivery targets for 2024. Boeing recorded 348 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2024, slightly above the expected 340 jets and down from 480 the year prior. The planemaker is not expected to make significant improvements in delivery results before the end of 2025

REMEMBER- Airbus delivered 766 commercial aircraft in 2024. The Commercial Aircraft division secured 878 new gross orders, bringing its year-end backlog for 2024 to 8.6k aircraft.

#7- Maersk + Hapag-Lloyd do not see immediate return to Red Sea despite Gaza ceasefire: Shipping giants Hapag Lloyd and Maersk are not likely to immediately return to the Red Sea following the ceasefire announcement between Hamas and Israel, Reuters reported on Thursday. “The agreement has only just been reached. We will closely analyze the latest developments and their impact on the security situation in the Red Sea,” a Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson told the newswire.

But would the Houthi attacks continue now that there is a ceasefire? Maritime security officials are expecting Yemen’s Houthis to announce a halt in their attacks on ships in the Red Sea following the commencement of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, Reuters reported on Thursday. The experts highlighted an email — reviewed by Reuters — in which the group delayed an upcoming first-of-its-kind security briefing targeting the maritime and shipping sector scheduled for the next few days, suggesting it could be a possible indication. The webinar has now been rescheduled for February 10.

REMEMBER- The two companies started last year a joint alliance — the Gemini Cooperation — that planned phasing in the Cape of Good Hope Network in February 2025 in a bid to avoid disruptions in the Red Sea. Both companies have largely steered away from the Red Sea, opting for the longer alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope.

MARKET WATCH-

#1- Oil prices fell in early morning trading on the back of expectations US President-elect Trump will relax Russian energy curbs, Reuters reports. Brent crude futures were down USD 0.16 to USD 80.63 a barrel by GMT 04.53, while the more active US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) April contract dropped USD 0.06 to USD 77.33 a barrel. Both benchmarks gained over 1% last week in their fourth successive weekly rise after the Biden administration sanctioned over 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers.

#2- China and India are looking to the Middle East for oil supplies in Russia’s stead after the US Treasury Department’s recent package of sanctions on Russia from the US, estimated to be the toughest since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Bloomberg reported on Friday. The sanctions were imposed on some 161 Russian oil tankers, with analysts like Macquarie Group estimating that the move could cause a loss of as many as 2.15 mn bbl / d in exports.

The details: Chinese and Indian buyers reportedly asked Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait for more oil, which might prove difficult to provide given their commitments to Opec+ — where Moscow is a leading force — to keep supply short, writes the business information service. Aramco already turned down requests for February-loading cargos from some Chinese buyers, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter.

REMEMBER- China and India took over Europe’s share of Russian oil imports after the continent cut down its imports of Russian oil products in 2023, NPR reported in 2023.

Shipping rates are also being driven up by the sanctions and higher demand for vessels to transport Middle Eastern crude to Asia, Reuters reported last week. The charter cost of a supertanker from the Middle East to China rose 15% to reach USD 4.1 mn, with tankers on other routes seeing similar hikes, shipbrokers told the news agency.

#3- Increased demand for quick parcel delivery will push air freight to grow by 10% in 2025, Qatar Airways Cargo Chief Cargo Officer Mark Drusch told Bloomberg on Saturday. The firm’s e-commerce sector increased by 25% last year, and another “double-digit expansion” is expected in 2025, Drusch said.

Expectations: Semiconductors and consumer goods in major economies are also expected to be strong areas for the sector in the coming year, with the carrier forecasting a 5% to 10% increase in total freight capacity, Drusch said. “We’ve all become so accustomed to buying things online and expecting them very quickly,” he told Bloomberg Television. “We don’t expect that to slow down, and neither do our partners.”

REMEMBER- The trend may be here to stay: Growth in the e-commerce sector is expected to lead to express carrier demand growing faster than the industry average, with express carriers forecasted to serve 25% of the air cargo market by 2043.

#4- The global sugar market is set to get a supply boost as India expects to ramp up exports to 1 mn metric tons of sugar this season, government sources told Reuters on Sunday. The move aims to allow mills to export their surplus stock and support local prices. India’s most prominent sugar export markets include the UAE, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. The South Asian country was the second biggest sugar exporter in the world in the five years leading up to 2022/23.

#5- Baltic index maintains upward trajectory: The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index — which tracks rates for the capesize, panamax, and supramax vessel segments — plummeted 36 to 987 points on Friday. The capesize index dropped 89 points to 1,393, while the panamax index fell 18 points to 747. The smaller supramax index increased by 1 point to 897.

#6- The Drewry World Container Index fell 3% to USD 3,855 per 40-ft container on Thursday, according to the latest index readings. Spot rates for 40-ft containers are now 63% below the previous pandemic peak but remain 171% above the pre-pandemic rate of USD 1.4k. The average composite index YTD is USD 3,915 per 40ft container, which is USD 1,045 higher than the 10-year average rate of USD 2,871.

DATA POINTS-

A record year for Egyptian imports of Israeli gas: Egypt imported a record 981 mn cfd of natural gas from Israel last year, up 18.2% y-o-y, according to a report from industry publication Mees. The increase was driven by a growing gas deficit thanks to a dip in local gas production that saw production fall to a seven-year low of 4.5 bn cfd in October.

Egypt’s imports of Israeli gas have been steadily increasing for years now, with Israeli gas imports rising to their current level from just 202 mn cfd in 2020. Israel’s NewMed Energy — which owns 45.3% of the Leviathan gas field — also recently floated the prospect of doubling Egypt-bound shipments to more than 2 bn cfd by 2030. On the other hand, the report says Egypt’s only alternative is LNG imports — whose spot prices currently sit at around USD 14 per mn BTU, significantly costlier than Israel’s USD 6.5 per mn BTU imports.

The Saudi Port Authority (Mawani) has recorded 320 mn tons of containers handled in 2024, a 14.45% increase y-o-y, according to a statement released last week. Saudi ports saw a 13.79% increase in incoming containers and 8.86% increase in outgoing containers. The port authority handled 7.5 mn containers and 11.5k vessels in 2024.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Belgium will host the World Cargo Summit from Monday, 27 January to Wednesday, 29 January, in Ostend. The event will focus on air cargo economics, strategy, and market trends with a specific focus on how the industry will tackle disruptions and how firms can adapt their business models.

The UAE will host the ShipTek International Conference from Wednesday, 29 January to Thursday 30 January in Dubai. The two-day conference will gather industry experts, including managing director at Hapag-Lloyd Carolin Stumm, CEO Adani Ports Nicolai Friis, VP International Maritime Industries Justin Taylor, CEO Tristra Tim Coffin, and others to discuss new tech and developments in the maritime industry.

The UAE will host the Middle East Bunkering Convention from Monday, 3 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Dubai. The event will focus on the marine fuels sector to address the future of the industry in light of geopolitical issues, environmental regulation, and the future of artificial intelligence and digitalization.

Saudi Arabia will host the Airport Expansion Conference from Tuesday, 4 February to Wednesday, 5 February in Riyadh. The two-day conference will feature over 30 speakers to discuss challenges faced by Saudi Airports and highlight Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 with a clear focus on expansion, tech, and strategic partnerships.

The UAE will host the Middle East Breakbulk Conference from Monday, 10 February to Tuesday, 11 February in Dubai. The event gathers giant manufacturers, EPCs, and service providers to discuss the latest solutions in breakbulk and heavy-lift logistics across the Middle East and Africa. The two-day event features an artificial intelligence (AI) seminar, a heavy lift workshop, a chartering workshop, and a women in breakbulk panel.

Check out our full calendar at the bottom of this email for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events and news triggers.

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