{"id":98660,"date":"2025-07-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/07\/13\/iea-energy-ministry-tell-different-tales-on-june-oil-output\/"},"modified":"2025-07-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-13T00:00:00","slug":"iea-energy-ministry-tell-different-tales-on-june-oil-output","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/07\/13\/iea-energy-ministry-tell-different-tales-on-june-oil-output\/","title":{"rendered":"IEA, Energy Ministry tell different tales on June oil output"},"content":{"rendered":"

IEA and Saudi<\/strong> Arabia at odds<\/strong>: <\/strong>Saudi Arabia pumped 9.8 mn bbl \/ d of oil last month, a 700k bbl \/ d increase from June, with 70% of the additional production exported, according to the The International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA) July Oil Market Report<\/a>. The June figure is 430k barrels above the our Opec+ quota of 9.37 mn bbl \/ d, the agency says.<\/p>\n

BUT- The Energy Ministry reaffirmed the Kingdom\u2019s compliance with Opec+ quotas<\/strong>, citing a marketed supply of 9.35 mn bbl \/ d, it said on X<\/a> on Friday. The Ministry acknowledged it briefly pumped extra oil into storage due to geopolitical tensions<\/p>\n

It all comes down to the metric:<\/strong> The Ministry is asking independent oil trackers to report its June output using an alternative \u201csupply-to-market\u201d metric instead of standard production, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The IEA\u2019s figures include oil moved into storage of around 450k bbl \/ d, which \u2014 if excluded \u2014 would place the Kingdom within its Opec+ quota. <\/p>\n

Behind the discrepancy: <\/strong>The Kingdom sought to strategically increase shipments to international storage locations, including the Sumed pipeline in Egypt which received an additional 5 mn barrels in June, to reposition supplies during the regional conflict. Those barrels, the Kingdom argues, have not been released to the market and should therefore not be considered a breach of its Opec+ target.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>Gulf producers \u2014 including Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE \u2014 rushed to export oil from the Persian Gulf following the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, Bloomberg<\/a> reports, citing IEA data. Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s production declined by 400k bbl \/ d to 3.1 mn bbl \/ d due to the conflict.<\/p>\n

Saudi potentially flouting quotas raised some eyebrows<\/strong>, as the Kingdom has been mounting increasing pressure on Opec+ cheats \u2014 hello, Kazakhstan \u2014 to compensate for months of pumping above quotas, with the accelerated hikes agreed by the cartel since April widely framed as a Saudi-led push to punish overproducers.<\/p>\n

Surplus, surplus: <\/strong>The influx of crude is exacerbating a global market surplus caused by slowing demand and booming production from non-Opec+ countries, the IEA said. Oversupply has pushed oil futures down roughly 13% to around USD 69 a barrel since mid-June, overriding concerns about regional conflicts.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead:<\/strong> The IEA has downgraded its 2025 forecast for global oil consumption, penciling in 700k bbl \/ d growth \u2014 the slowest pace in 16 years excluding the 2020 pandemic. The IEA projects inventories will swell by 2-3 mn barrels per day through 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026.<\/p>\n

Despite the gloomy forecast, the IEA noted that current conditions tell a different story.<\/strong> \u201cPrice indicators also point to a tighter physical oil market than suggested by the hefty surplus in our balances,\u201d the agency noted, pointing to the differences between monthly futures contracts and \u201chealthy\u201d margins for refiners.<\/p>\n

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