{"id":96711,"date":"2025-05-06T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/05\/06\/crown-prince-to-hold-gcc-leaders-summit-with-trump-axios\/"},"modified":"2025-05-06T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T00:00:00","slug":"crown-prince-to-hold-gcc-leaders-summit-with-trump-axios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/05\/06\/crown-prince-to-hold-gcc-leaders-summit-with-trump-axios\/","title":{"rendered":"Crown Prince to hold GCC leaders summit with Trump -Axios"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning<\/strong>. It\u2019s a meaty Tuesday issue, heavy on macro data and big updates from the Saudi IPO market that seems to be showing no signs of slowdown, even as uncertainty engulfs global markets.<\/p>\n

In this morning\u2019s news well: <\/strong>Our deficit widened in 1Q as lower oil demand weighed down in revenues, and non-oil activity expanded at a slower rate in April as new orders slow down. The IPO scene saw Flynas publish a prospectus for its long-awaited IPO, while United Carton Industries\u2019 IPO raked in more than SAR 75 bn in orders.<\/p>\n

BUT FIRST- <\/strong>Thank you very much to our new friends who braved midday traffic to join us yesterday for our inaugural reader lunch at the Four Seasons Riyadh at Kingdom Centre. It was wonderful to talk shop and share a laugh. All of our readers will benefit from the deeper insights that gathering like this will help us bring to future daily reports.<\/p>\n

We enjoyed yesterday so much that we\u2019re going to make this a quarterly thing. <\/strong>We\u2019ll soon set a date for our next quarterly reader lunch and will invite folks to drop us a note if they\u2019re interested in attending. Thank you to everyone who reached out and asked to join us \u2014 we\u2019ll look forward to meeting many more of you as the months go by.<\/p>\n

** Want to talk over something that interested you in this morning\u2019s report? <\/strong>Or do you have a question, comment, or story idea? Hit \u201creply\u201d to this email \u2014 we read every note we receive.<\/p>\n

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WEATHER- <\/strong>It's another dusty day in the Kingdom. Ongoing storms are expected to keep up in Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, and Makkah with a chance of light rain in Riyadh, Qassim, the Eastern Province, Northern Borders, and Al-Jawf.<\/p>\n

Riyadh <\/strong>is expected to see a high of 37\u00b0C and a low of 27\u00b0C today, while Jeddah\u2019s <\/strong>mercury will go as high as 32\u00b0C and as low as 24\u00b0C. Meanwhile, Makkah <\/strong>will see a 36\u00b0C high and 25\u00b0C low.<\/p>\n

PSAs-<\/p>\n

Busine<\/strong>ss<\/strong>es subject to withholding tax must file their April tax returns by Sunday, 11 April <\/strong>via Zatca\u2019s website<\/a>, according to a statement<\/a>. Late submissions will face a 1% penalty for every 30 days of delay.<\/p>\n

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WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/strong>#1- Crown Pri<\/strong>nce Mohamme<\/strong>d Bin Salman plans to invite all GCC <\/strong>leaders to a 14 May <\/strong>summit with US President Donald Trump<\/strong>, Axios<\/a> reports, citing a US official and two Arab sources. <\/p>\n

What we (reportedly) know: <\/strong>The summit is expected to be held after discussing US-Saudi bilateral relations, but before Trump visits Qatar and the UAE. While official details are pending, the GCC-US summit will bear a broader regional focus.<\/p>\n

On the itinerary: <\/strong>The visit to the region highlights Trump\u2019s administration's push to deepen economic ties with Gulf countries while providing a platform to outline and rally support for US policy in the Middle East. While details are yet to be fleshed out, a set of topics are expected to top the agenda, chief among them are investment, arms transfers, and AI, in addition to regional issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iran-US negotiations over Tehran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n

Of particular interest to Saudi:<\/strong> The US has put on the table a USD 3.5 bn<\/a> arms transfer agreement to equip Riyadh with air-to-air missiles, receiving the green light from the Defense Department last Friday. Meanwhile, Riyadh captured the US attention with a potential investment worth USD 600 bn announced earlier this year, which Trump would like to see go up to USD 1 tn.<\/p>\n

In the backdrop: <\/strong>Trump is not expected to visit Israel as there are no major diplomatic breakthroughs in sight, particularly with respect to a Gaza ceasefire or hostage release, sources told Axios. The visit coincides with the ongoing US-Iran nuclear agreement talks, which Gulf countries have backed, urging continued US engagement. <\/p>\n

BACKGROUND- <\/strong>Trump\u2019s first presidential trip in 2017 also began in Saudi Arabia with a large Arab and Muslim leaders\u2019 summit. Former US president Biden held a similar summit with Gulf, Iraqi, Jordanian, and Egyptian leaders during his 2022 visit.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #2- <\/strong>India is reportedly weighing tax <\/strong>breaks<\/strong> for the Public Investment <\/strong>Fund (PIF)<\/strong> to encourage up to USD 100 bn in investment across the infrastructure and energy sectors, the Financial Express<\/a> reports, citing unnamed sources. Saudi officials have requested exemptions for investments in infrastructure assets, including refineries.<\/p>\n

The details:<\/strong> The proposed package includes a tax holiday of up to 10 years, depending on the nature and structure of the investments. India is also reportedly considering measures to simplify the process for PIF to claim tax exemptions for income generated from dividends, interest, and capital gains linked to infrastructure investments. PIF may receive treatment similar to the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which enjoys preferential tax benefits<\/a> in India, according to the outlet. <\/p>\n

The stumbling block:<\/strong> Saudi Arabia\u2019s investment in two Indian oil refineries is reportedly<\/a> stalled on terms of an agreement to supply crude oil to the facilities. Saudi wants to supply 50% of the refineries' needs at official prices, while India wants a 20% share at discounted rates.. This delay risks derailing projects tied to the broader USD 100 bn investment pledge.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> Saudi Arabia and India recently agreed<\/a> to deepen cooperation across key sectors, including energy. The two sides also agreed to kick-off talks on a bilateral investment treaty.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> <\/strong>#3- Our frie<\/strong>nds at United Intern<\/strong>ational Holding (UIHC) changed their name on the Saudi <\/strong>Exchange <\/strong>to <\/strong>Tasheel<\/strong>, according to a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The new trading name for the eXtra subsidiary and operator of Tasheel Finance aims to simplify recognition and use for its shareholders.<\/p>\n

ICYMI-<\/strong> Tasheel saw its estimated 1Q 2025 net income<\/a> grow 10.4% y-o-y to SAR 57.8 mn, while revenue was up 24.8% y-o-y at SAR 174 mn over the same period, driven by higher consumer finance revenues.<\/p>\n

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<\/a> #4- Private h<\/strong>ealthcare provider <\/strong>Specia<\/a><\/strong>lized Medical Company<\/a><\/strong> (SMC)<\/strong> plans to invest<\/strong> SAR 3 bn to build three hospitals in northern Riyadh<\/strong>, CEO Bassam Shaheen told Al Arabiya<\/a>. The first hospital, SmC3, is scheduled for completion in 4Q 2027, with the other two set to be completed in the following two years.<\/p>\n

Financing breakdown: <\/strong>The expansion will be funded through loans, facilities, and internal cash flows, without requiring new capital from shareholders. The company has already secured SAR 3.6 bn in long-term loans and short-term bank facilities. Revenues and net income margins are projected to double once all three hospitals are operational, with the company aiming to maintain its dividend payout ratio at 40\u201350% of earnings.<\/p>\n

ICYMI-<\/strong>SMC published the prospectus for its IPO on Tadawul's main market earlier this week<\/a><\/a> through a secondary share sale of 75 mn ordinary shares, representing a 30% stake. The offering will be available to both institutional and retail investors, with institutional bookbuilding scheduled for 11-15 May and retail subscription for 28-29 May. Existing major shareholders will retain a 66% stake and receive all proceeds from the sale, after covering IPO expenses of SAR 41 mn.<\/p>\n

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#5- Port-operator Red Sea Gateway Terminal International is mulling a bid to build and <\/strong>run a farm-fresh food terminal at South Africa\u2019s Durban port<\/strong>, Bloomberg<\/a> reported. The concession, which spans 25 years, will see the development of 15 berths over 145 hectares, handling over 7 mn tonnes of cargo annually.<\/p>\n

The drivers:<\/strong> The development will build upon South Africa\u2019s huge citrus exports, which comes second worldwide after Spain and are shipped to the Middle Eastern countries among others.<\/p>\n

Red Sea Gateway is also eyeing investment opportunities across Africa<\/strong>, with special focus on multipurpose terminals shipping mining and food products, the firm\u2019s director of Global Investments Gagan Seksaria told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

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#6- <\/strong>CMA suspend<\/strong>s Mekyal\u2019s licenses:<\/strong> The Capital Market Authority (CMA) suspended Mekyal Financial Technologies\u2019 license to carry out arranging activities in the security sector and revoked a temporary permit that allowed it to market investment in debt instruments, according to a statement<\/a>. The CMA said it has concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the company\u2019s disclosures.<\/p>\n

ALSO FROM THE CMA- Nama <\/strong>Ventures<\/strong> Capital met all the requirements to begin <\/strong>managing investment activities in the securities sector<\/strong>, following the issuance of a license in September 2024, the authority said in a separate statement<\/a>. <\/p>\n

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DATA POINTS-<\/p>\n

The Kingdom c<\/strong>limbed 28 spots<\/strong> in the Open Data Inventory ranking to land in the 41st <\/strong>place globally<\/strong>, up from 69th in 2024, according to a report<\/a> by Open Data Watch. It also rose to the 9th spot among G20 countries, up from the 15th. The Kingdom saw a 16-point improvement in its data coverage score and a 15-point rise in data openness, reflecting a 143% overall score increase since 2017.<\/p>\n

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OIL WATCH- <\/p>\n

Wall Street analysts slashed their oil price forecasts in response to Opec+\u2019s decision to <\/strong>accelerate production<\/a><\/strong> in June<\/strong>, with the group raising increments for the second month in a row to add 411k barrels per day (bbl \/ d) for June. <\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs lowered Brent crude forecasts by USD 2 to USD 3 a barrel to average <\/strong>USD 60 a barrel for this year<\/strong> and USD 56 a barrel 2026, while pegging West Texas Intermediate at USD 56 a barrel in 2025 and USD 52 a barrel next year, Reuters<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

MEANWHILE-<\/strong> Morgan Stanley pegs Brent prices to average USD 62.50 a barrel in 3Q and 4Q on the back of Opec\u2019s latest announcement, with the surplus expected to rise by 400k bbl \/ d and hit 1.1 mn barrels<\/a> in 2H of this year. Barclays dropped its Brent oil rate forecast by USD 4 a barrel to USD 66 for 2025 and by USD 2 to USD 60 for 2026, Reuters<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

The rationale: <\/strong>\u201cOur key conviction remains that high spare capacity and high recession risk skew the risks to oil prices to the downside, despite relatively tight spot fundamentals,\u201d Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note seen by Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong>Brent crude fell some 4.6% to USD 58 a barrel following the meeting, while West Texas Intermediate was near USD 56, plummeting some 3.8%.<\/p>\n

All eyes on Saudi: <\/strong>\u201cThe key to knowing how far the Saudis will take what is starting to look like a price war is the nation\u2019s tolerance for low oil prices over time,\u201d said head of Morgan Stanley\u2019s commodities strategy department Warren Patterson. <\/p>\n

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***<\/strong><\/p>\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

Israel plans to step-up its war on Gaza: <\/strong>Israel\u2019s cabinet approved plans<\/a> yesterday to control large parts of Gaza indefinitely and relocate Palestinians to \u201csterile zones\u201d all across the territory at the same time as it takes over aid distribution. Israeli officials signalled the intensive plan will be implemented only if a ceasefire failed to materialize by the time US President Trump leaves the region after his anticipated gulf summit in mid-May.<\/p>\n

Houthis are not backing down: <\/strong>Despite intensifying strikes by the US and allies, the militant group announced a \u201ccomprehensive\u201d aerial blockade<\/a> on Israel, promising to repeatedly target key airports and urging international airlines to cancel all flights to Israeli airports.<\/p>\n

ALSO- <\/strong>OpenAI listened to widespread criticism and decided to halt plans<\/a> to turn for-profit. The plan would have spun the ChatGPT maker into an independent entity from the nonprofit that currently holds a controlling stake, which raised concerns<\/a> of subverting governance safeguards that are supposed to keep AI tech development in check.<\/p>\n

AND- <\/strong>Trump is threatening tariffs (what else is new?) that could reach 100% on films made<\/a>outside of the US<\/a>, a move that could significantly hurt movie production in many regions, including the Middle East.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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