{"id":96619,"date":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/05\/04\/opec-pushes-forward-with-production-increase-in-june\/"},"modified":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-04T00:00:00","slug":"opec-pushes-forward-with-production-increase-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/05\/04\/opec-pushes-forward-with-production-increase-in-june\/","title":{"rendered":"Opec+ pushes forward with production increase in June"},"content":{"rendered":"

Good morning, wonderful people<\/strong>. It\u2019s the first issue in May, and we\u2019re getting more and more data on how the economy, debt markets and listed companies performed in the first quarter.<\/p>\n

In this morning\u2019s news well: <\/strong>The Kingdom's GDP grew 2.7% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2025, primarily driven by non-oil sector expansion, while Gastat significantly revised the 2023 GDP figures. We also dive into IMF\u2019s latest Regional Economic Outlook insights on MENA and GCC growth.<\/p>\n

ALSO- <\/strong>The PIF raised USD 1.25 bn via sukuk, and Banque Saudi Fransi secured USD 650 mn in AT1 bonds. On the capital markets front, Asas Makeen is preparing for a Nomu IPO, while the earnings season is picking up steam with Tawuniya, Bank AlJazira, and Fourth Milling and more announcing 1Q earnings.<\/p>\n

BUT FIRST- <\/strong>Three ma<\/strong>jor indices have just landed in our Plane<\/strong>t Finance table<\/strong>, to help you stay on top of the shifting fixed income landscape: our sovereign sukuk\/bond market index, the S&P MENA bond & sukuk index, and Bloomberg\u2019s VIX. These indices give a clear snapshot of Saudi\u2019s sovereign debt, regional bond and sukuk performance, and overall market volatility.<\/p>\n

AND ON OUR RADAR- We will get an insight into the effect Trump\u2019s tariffs are having <\/strong>on the Kingdom\u2019s non-oil <\/strong>private sector activity this week<\/strong>, with the release of Riyad Capital\u2019s PMI data for April \u2014 the first such release since what the US head of state called Liberation Day.<\/p>\n

HAPPENING TODAY-<\/p>\n

Adeer Real Estate kicks off its <\/strong>Nomu IPO<\/a><\/strong> offering today.<\/strong> Adeer offers a 20% stake (1 mn shares) at SAR 85 per share, with qualified investors able to subscribe to a minimum of 10 shares and a maximum of 250k shares. The offering will wrap up on Thursday, 8 May, with final shares allocation expected by 12 May.<\/p>\n

ADVISORS-<\/strong> Musharaka Financial Company is quarterbacking the transaction as lead financial advisor and bookrunner, while Alsaleh, Alsahli & Partners Law Firm is providing legal counsel. Receiving agents include AlRajhi Capital, Derayah Financial, Alistithmar Capital, Albilad Capital, BSF Capital, Riyad Capital, SAB Invest, ANB Capital, Alinma Capital, AlJazira Capital, Yaqeen Capital, AlKhabeer Capital, Sahm Capital, GIB Capital, and SNB Capital.<\/p>\n

WEATHER- <\/strong>Riyadh is expected to see a high of 41\u00b0C and a low of 29\u00b0C today, while Jeddah\u2019s mercury will go as high as 32\u00b0C and as low as 27\u00b0C. Makkah will see a stormy 36\u00b0C high and 25\u00b0C low.<\/p>\n

\n

PSAs- <\/p>\n

Taxpayers may benefit from a waiver on fines for late registration, payment, filing, and <\/strong>VAT corrections until Monday, 30 June<\/strong>, Zatca said in a post on X<\/a>. To qualify, taxpayers must be registered, submit overdue returns, and settle outstanding tax debts.<\/p>\n

OIL WATCH-<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/strong>Opec+ will a<\/strong>ccelerate oil produc<\/strong>tion increments for the second month in a row, adding <\/strong>411k barrels per day in June<\/strong>, according to a statement<\/a>. That\u2019s a three-month worth of supply increments that will be delivered all at once next month. The oil group once again cited healthy market fundamentals as the driver behind the decision.<\/p>\n

The rationale:<\/strong> The recent moves mark a strategic shift toward regaining market share after years of cutting production, former Opec employee and Rystad Energy A\/S geopolitical analyst Jorge Le\u00f3n told the Financial Times<\/a> writes. \u201cLast month\u2019s decision was a wake-up call. Today\u2019s decision is a definitive message,\u201d Leon said.<\/p>\n

The move is also seen as a bid to punish overproducing members (Kazakhstan and Iraq)<\/strong> by sending crude prices tumbling, Bloomberg<\/a> reported, citing unnamed Opec+ delegates. <\/p>\n

Ripple effects:<\/strong> The price drop threatens to pressure Opec+ economies, including Saudi Arabia, which needs prices above USD 90<\/a> to balance its budget, according to IMF estimates.<\/p>\n

BUT- Riyadh is prepared to weather the storm: <\/strong>Saudi officials are reportedly briefing allies and experts that the Kingdom is ready to endure low oil prices without further supply cuts, Reuters<\/a> reported, citing sources it says are in the know.<\/p>\n

The next meeting:<\/strong> \u201cWe do see a case for forgoing another triple-decker increase next month [but] we do not rule out another plot twist,\u201d RBC Capital Markets Helima Croft told Reuters<\/a> separately. The group is expected to meet again 1 June.<\/p>\n

What about Western producers?<\/strong> Despite a 16% drop in crude prices in April to a near four-year low, Western oil giants like Exxon and Chevron are pressing ahead with plans to boost their production by 7% and 9% this year, citing break-even costs of at least USD 60 per barrel, Bloomberg<\/a> reported separately.<\/p>\n

\n

WATCH THIS SPACE-<\/p>\n

<\/a> <\/strong>The US ap<\/strong>prove<\/strong>d a USD 3.5 bn weapons sale to the Kingdom<\/strong>, including 1k advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles and support services, with US-based RTX<\/a> as the main contractor, according to a statement<\/a> from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency. The US Congress still needs to sign off on the transaction, which aims to boost Saudi defense without altering the regional military balance, the statement read.<\/p>\n

IN CONTEXT- <\/strong>The agreement, approved ahead of US President Donald Trump\u2019s mid-May visit to the Kingdom, aims to reinforce ties with the Kingdom and put pressure on Iran<\/a>. Trump is also expected to unveil a broader USD 100 bn arms package<\/a> and advance potential USD 1 tn Saudi investments to the US.<\/p>\n

BACKGROUND-<\/strong> The former Biden administration lifted a three-year ban<\/a> on the sale of offensive weapons to the Kingdom in August<\/a>, saying that Riyadh upheld its end of an agreement with Washington on drawing back the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen.<\/p>\n

\n

DATA POINTS-<\/p>\n

Saudi<\/strong> Railways network carried more than 3.3 mn passengers (+24% y-o-y) and sold over <\/strong>10k tickets during 1Q 2025<\/strong>, according to a statement<\/a>. Meanwhile, the volume of goods transported across the web of rail lines exceeded 7.4 mn tons to clock a 17% y-o-y increase.<\/p>\n

During Ramadan season<\/strong>, our trains carried 1.2 mn passengers over 3.3k trips, with a daily high reaching 48k passengers.<\/p>\n

\n

SPORTS-<\/p>\n

A packed King Abdullah Sports City Stadium saw Al Ahli secure a 2-0 victory<\/strong> \u2014 and its first AFC Champions League title \u2014 against Japan's Kawasaki Frontale yesterday. The crown makes Al Ahli the third Saudi team on the tournament\u2019s hall of honors, alongside Al Ittihad and Al Hilal.<\/p>\n

SPEAKING OF- <\/strong>Al Hilal and head coach <\/strong>Jorge Jesus have parted ways by mutual consent<\/strong>, days after the team\u2019s semifinal loss<\/a> to Al Ahli, the club said in a post on X<\/a>. Mohammed Al Shalhoub is stepping in as interim coach, with reports suggesting a foreign replacement will be hired before Al Hilal faces Real Madrid in the FIFA Club World Cup on 18 June, according to AP News<\/a>.<\/p>\n

BACKGROUND-<\/strong>Appointed in July 2023, Jesus led the club to a record 34-game streak and its 19th Saudi Pro League title, but trails Al Ittihad by six points this season with five matches left.<\/p>\n

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\n

THE BIG STORY ABROAD- <\/p>\n

<\/a> Warren Buffett blindsided investors with a surprise announcement that he wants to <\/strong>step<\/a><\/strong>down<\/a><\/strong> as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of the year<\/strong>, to be replaced by Vice Chairman Greg Abel. The 94-years old Wall Street icon has spent some 60 years<\/a> at the helm of Berkshire \u2014 which he turned from a textile manufacturer into a USD 1.2 tn conglomerate with a super-successful investment strategy that earned him the nickname \u201cOracle of Omaha.\u201d<\/p>\n

OVER IN POLITICS- <\/strong>Australia\u2019s Anthony Albanese secured a second term<\/a> in the prime minister\u2019s office, continuing a streak of gains for left-leaning parties after Mark Carney swapped up Canada\u2019s elections last week.<\/p>\n

CLOSER TO HOME- <\/strong>Israel is reportedly getting ready to expand its military operations in Gaza<\/a> within days and call on tens of thousands of reservists. The news comes after an escalation in Syria that saw Israel hit unidentified targets near the presidential palace<\/a> in Damascus on Friday, in a bid to \u201csend a message\u201d to the new government.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PLUS: The US approved a USD 3.5 bn weapons sale to the Kingdom<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96620,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[10,159,514,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-96619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-oil-watch","tag-opec-2","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"1f97f61e-5628-4a17-8cac-709f1609b67f","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/4\/1394.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"THIS MORNING: Opec+ pushes forward with production increase in June","related_issue":[96617],"teaser":"PLUS: The US approved a USD 3.5 bn weapons sale to the Kingdom","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/5\/.ae7b5a7e-e840-499f-a9a1-3d150bc80dbb.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nOpec+ pushes forward with production increase in June - 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