{"id":95951,"date":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/"},"modified":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T00:00:00","slug":"oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs"},"content":{"rendered":"

B<\/strong>udget deficit at risk of hitting USD 67 bn following oil price dips:<\/strong>The Kingdom\u2019s budget deficit could widen to USD 67 bn (SAR 251.5 bn), or over 6% of GDP, in a scenario where oil prices average USD 62 per barrel in 2025, Goldman Sachs economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg<\/a>. The projection would mark the biggest shortfall since the 2020 pandemic.<\/p>\n

The breakdown:<\/strong> If prices remained around USD 62 a barrel this year, the budget deficit would rise significantly to around USD 70-75 bn, up from around USD 30-35 bn, Soussa told CNBC. The government needed oil at USD 93 a barrel to balance last year\u2019s budget, according to Bloomberg Economics\u2019 Chief Emerging Markets Economist Ziad Daoud.<\/p>\n

Somewhat in line with recent forecasts: \u201c<\/strong>The breakeven oil price for Saudi Arabia is USD 82-83 a barrel, so \u2026 you can expect a very big budget deficit between 4-5% this year, up from 2.3% in 2024. If oil prices drop to the USD 50 range, it could widen even further,\u201d EFG Hermes\u2019 Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din told us<\/a> last week.<\/p>\n

.. and way above Riyadh\u2019s initial plans: <\/strong>The government expected the budget shortfall to come in at 2.3% of GDP in the current fiscal year and to \u201ccontinue at similar levels over the medium term.\u201d<\/p>\n

This shortfall poses a major risk to the non-oil sector<\/strong>, which Daoud warns will bear the brunt of falling oil revenues. \u201cLower prices mean spending cutbacks, slowing construction and reducing public-sector hirings,\u201d Daoud added. Soussa shared a similar concern, saying that the Kingdom will need to see \u201csome fiscal adjustment\u201d as well as \u201ca more aggressive re-prioritization\u201d regarding projects.<\/p>\n

More borrowing on the table?<\/strong> Unless spending cuts are made, the Kingdom could borrow an additional USD 16.5 bn before the year ends, Tim Callen, a visiting scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, told Bloomberg. Riyadh would also need to consider alternatives to the current volatile international markets to bridge the funding gap, including cutting spending, raising taxes, or selling stakes in its assets, Soussa told CNBC.<\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>The borrowing plan for FY 2025 outlined a requirement for some SAR 139 bn (USD 37 bn) in new public debt. The targeted amount is intended to bridge an anticipated SAR 101 bn (USD 27 bn) budget deficit penciled in for the new fiscal year, in addition to covering some SAR 38 bn required to meet principals\u2019 repayments for loans maturing during the period. <\/p>\n

BUT- Saudi Arabia still has a strong financial position<\/strong>, with USD 410.2 bn in reserves as of January. The country also saw its long-term foreign currency issuer credit rating get an A+ from both S&P<\/a> and Fitch<\/a>. Soussa emphasized that the Kingdom won\u2019t jeopardize its financial stability or risk de-pegging its currency just to maintain current spending levels. \u201cThat\u2019s just not going to happen.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We might see a USD 67 bn shortfall if crude averaged USD 62 this year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95952,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,273,1365,2687,567],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-95951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-finance-ministry","tag-non-oil-economy","tag-oil","tag-state-budget","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"3acca6c7-d64b-46dd-813b-4719c7f76cb0","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs","related_issue":[95946],"teaser":"We might see a USD 67 bn shortfall if crude averaged USD 62 this year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.20419e00-116a-4004-a217-8d7bf23809f7.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nOil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs - KSA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We might see a USD 67 bn shortfall if crude averaged USD 62 this year\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\"},\"wordCount\":469,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"ECONOMY\",\"EnterpriseAM KSA\",\"Finance Ministry\",\"Non-oil economy\",\"Oil\",\"state budget\"],\"articleSection\":[\"ECONOMY\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\",\"name\":\"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs - KSA\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/\",\"name\":\"KSA\",\"description\":\"The State of the Nation\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization\",\"name\":\"KSA\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/42482.svg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/42482.svg\",\"caption\":\"KSA\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\",\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"sameAs\":[\"http:\/\/enterpriseam.testing.projectsarea.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/author\/enterpriseam\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs - KSA","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs","og_description":"We might see a USD 67 bn shortfall if crude averaged USD 62 this year","og_url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/","og_site_name":"KSA","article_published_time":"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"enterpriseam admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"enterpriseam admin","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/"},"author":{"name":"enterpriseam admin","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d"},"headline":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs","datePublished":"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/"},"wordCount":469,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","keywords":["ECONOMY","EnterpriseAM KSA","Finance Ministry","Non-oil economy","Oil","state budget"],"articleSection":["ECONOMY"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/","name":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs - KSA","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","datePublished":"2025-04-13T00:00:00+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/13\/oil-decline-may-lead-to-biggest-deficit-since-2020-goldman-sachs\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Oil decline may lead to biggest deficit since 2020 -Goldman Sachs"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#website","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/","name":"KSA","description":"The State of the Nation","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization","name":"KSA","url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/42482.svg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ent.news\/internal\/42482.svg","caption":"KSA"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d","name":"enterpriseam admin","sameAs":["http:\/\/enterpriseam.testing.projectsarea.com"],"url":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/author\/enterpriseam\/"}]}},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?resize=600%2C400&ssl=1","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?resize=600%2C600&ssl=1","author_info":{"display_name":"enterpriseam admin","author_link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/author\/enterpriseam\/"},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/675.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95951\/revisions"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issue\/95946"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95952"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95951"},{"taxonomy":"brand","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/brand?post=95951"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=95951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}