{"id":95827,"date":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/08\/banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets\/"},"modified":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T00:00:00","slug":"banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/04\/08\/banks-brace-for-recession-expect-earlier-fed-cuts-as-tariffs-continue-to-shock-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Banks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>Goldman S<\/strong>achs raise<\/strong>d the probability of recession in the US economy to 45%<\/strong>, up from the 35% it penciled in just last week, Reuters<\/a> reports. The second adjustment came after the sharper-than-expected tariffs implemented by US President Donald Trump<\/a> triggered a major sell-off in global markets.<\/p>\n

The outlook is turning bearish across the board<\/strong>: Other major investment banks have also revised their recession forecasts in the wake of the tariff-induced market turmoil, the newswire<\/a> reported separately. JPMorgan now sees a 60% chance of a US recession by year-end. HSBC isn\u2019t far behind, putting the odds at 40%, while S&P Global pegs the probability at 30-35%.<\/p>\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had <\/strong>added to the panic<\/a><\/strong> earlier, labeling Trump\u2019s tariffs as \u201clarger than expected\u201d and warning it could put the brakes on growth. He also flagged a \u201chighly uncertain outlook,\u201d noting the risk of both higher unemployment and price pressures.<\/p>\n

Rate cuts to come sooner? <\/strong>Goldman now expects the Fed\u2019s three interest rate cuts \u2014 by 25 basis points each \u2014 to start in June, revised from July. JP Morgan seconds the notion, while expecting the benchmark rate to fall to 3% by January of the next year.<\/p>\n

T<\/strong>raders went all in on rate cuts in yesterday\u2019s session<\/strong>, expecting the Fed to cut rates by a total of 116 basis points this year over four of the five remaining meetings, Reuters reported, citing data compiled by LSEG. The wager on \u201cemergency\u201d meetings \u2014 where rates are going to be cut further \u2014 remains far-fetched for now, with the unusual measures last used during the pandemic. Still, it remains to be seen how far the impact of the trade war on inflation will be, as stagflation is currently the best-case scenario for the US economy, Bill Dudley, former New York Fed president, told Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are opening higher today<\/strong>, recouping some of yesterday\u2019s steep losses. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is up 6.2%, while Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is inching up 2.2%, and Kospi\u2019s up 1.6%. Wall Street futures also indicate a slight recovery on market open.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,194<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: -7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,421<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: -5.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28,650<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.01% (YTD: -9.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.0% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,454<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +2.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,949<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.6% (YTD: -5.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,799<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.1% (YTD: -7.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,987<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -15.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,702<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.4% (YTD: -5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,656<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.6% (YTD: -4.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 64.21<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.64<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2974<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79,240<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.5% (YTD: -15.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 1.1% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 10.6 bn. The index is down 7.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> NCLE (+8.8%), Mutakamela (+7.2%) and Acwa Power (+6.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Batic (-9.8%), AlAkaria (-6.0%) and MESC (-5.7%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.01% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 46.4 mn. The index is down 9.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> HKC (+9.6%), Horizon Education (+9.3%) and Alqemam (+8.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Jana (-9.1%), Tam Development (-8.5%) and Ghida Alsultan (-6.8%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Jana Me<\/a><\/strong>dical<\/a><\/strong> is now subject to Tadawul rules for firms with significant losses<\/strong> after reporting accumulated losses of SAR 13.0 mn in FY 2024, representing 40.6% of its capital and exceeding the 20% limit established by market regulation<\/a>, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The losses stemmed from higher credit loss provisions, legal cases provisions, and financing costs.<\/p>\n

Looking forward:<\/strong> The company now plans to raise sales volume, expand medical device agencies, reduce expenses, assess financial position and liquidity, and implement the Odoo enterprise resource planning system<\/a> to raise operational efficiency.<\/p>\n

\n

\n

The Com<\/a><\/strong>pany for Cooperative Ins.<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s (Tawuniya) BoD recommended distributing SAR 225 <\/strong>mn in <\/strong>dividends for FY 2024 at SAR 1.5 a piece<\/strong>, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The distribution date is yet to be announced.<\/p>\n

ALSO- <\/strong>The executive<\/strong> board at <\/strong>Mohammed Hadi Al Rasheed and Partners recommended <\/strong>the distribution of SAR 24 mn in<\/strong> dividends at SAR 2 apiece for FY 2024<\/strong>, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The distribution date is yet to be announced.<\/p>\n

AND-<\/strong> FAD Inter<\/a><\/strong>national Company<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s board endorsed distributing SAR 6 mn in<\/strong> dividends for FY <\/strong>2024 at SAR 5 apiece<\/strong>, according to a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The distribution date is yet to be disclosed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Traders went all in on rate cuts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95828,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,456,2587,21,2586,59,3838],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-95827","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-hsbc","tag-inflation","tag-jpmorgan","tag-planet-finance","tag-tariffs","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"152019e2-66f7-4169-83ff-6ef20148e353","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/4\/251.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Banks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets","related_issue":[95807],"teaser":"Traders went all in on rate cuts","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/4\/.674050b7-827a-4357-905f-9c532be9447c.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBanks brace for recession, expect earlier Fed cuts as tariffs continue to shock markets - 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