{"id":95398,"date":"2025-03-18T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/03\/18\/brewing-trade-war-to-weigh-on-global-growth-oecd-says\/"},"modified":"2025-03-18T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T00:00:00","slug":"brewing-trade-war-to-weigh-on-global-growth-oecd-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/03\/18\/brewing-trade-war-to-weigh-on-global-growth-oecd-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Brewing trade war to weigh on global growth, OECD says"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts slashed its global economic growth forecast <\/strong>on the back of persisting inflationary pressures and the potential upheaval in trade policies brought on by US President Donald Trump\u2019s trade war, according to the OECD\u2019s latest economic forecast (pdf)<\/a>. The Paris-based organization revised down its prediction for global growth in 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% in 2025 \u2014 down from 3.2% in 2024 \u2014 before slowing further to 3.0% in 2026.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a number of factors at play:<\/strong> Weakening business and consumer sentiments in some countries, coupled with rising uncertainty over economic policy indicators, have collectively contributed to the lowered growth prospects for the year. Meanwhile, \u201chigher trade barriers in several G20 economies and increased geopolitical and policy uncertainty\u201d are also weighing on investment and household spending. <\/p>\n

T<\/strong>he effects of slowed growth could appear soon:<\/strong> OECD sees global growth weakening in 1Q 2025, with consumer confidence having dipped early during the year, remaining \u201cbelow long-run average levels despite strong growth in real incomes in many economies,\u201d the report reads.<\/p>\n

The big picture:<\/strong> GDP growth in the US is seen coming in at 2.2% in 2025 \u2014 down from a previous forecast of 2.4% growth this year \u2014 before slowing further to 1.6% in 2026. Growth in the euro area is projected to be 1.0% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 1.3% growth, before rising to 1.2% in 2026. Meanwhile, China\u2019s economy is expected to grow 4.8% this year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast, before slowing to 4.4% in 2026. <\/p>\n

Inflation is also seen growing at a higher rate than previously expected<\/strong>, with annual headline inflation in G20 economies projected at 3.8% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. <\/p>\n

And higher inflation means\u2026: <\/strong>Persistent inflation could \u201cprompt more restrictive monetary policy and could give rise to disruptive repricing in financial markets.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

THE VIEW ON SAUDI-<\/p>\n

The OECD expects the Kingdom\u2019s GDP to grow by 3.8% this year, <\/strong>up 0.2 percentage points from its previous prediction in December. Economic growth is expected to slow slightly in 2026 to 3.6%.<\/p>\n

Inflation is expected to come in at an average of 1.9% in 2025,<\/strong> up from last year\u2019s 1.7%, before accelerating to 2.0% in 2026. <\/p>\n

How this compares to other forecasts: <\/strong>The IMF<\/a> and the World Bank<\/a> slashed Saudi Arabia\u2019s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. Meanwhile, S&P Global sees Saudi Arabia\u2019s GDP growing by 2.8% in 2025, while Capital Economics penciled in<\/a> a more optimistic prediction of 3.5%, citing anticipated oil output cuts, \u201cbut activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation.\u201d<\/p>\n

MEANWHILE-<\/strong> Capital Economics expects the Kingdom\u2019s headline inflation rate to hover around 2.0% y-o-y until 4Q, before slowing back down towards the 1.0% mark. The IMF sees inflation holding steady at 1.9% and 2.0%<\/a> this year and the next, while Al Rajhi Capital sees<\/a> inflation remaining stable at 2.1% in 2025 before cooling slightly to 2.0% in 2026.<\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are on the rise<\/strong>, tracking gains on Wall Street yesterday after US retail sales data helped ease investor concerns over a potential recession. Japan\u2019s Nikkei and Topix are up 1.6%, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi is up 0.6% and China\u2019s CSI 300 gained 0.25%. Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng is also up 1.9%.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Wall Street futures point to another good day for US indices<\/strong>, with the Dow Jones up marginally and Nasdaq and S&P 500 seeing no change from yesterday. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,883<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: -1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,504<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: -0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,035<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: -1.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.0% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.5% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31,459<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,451<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,171<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,702<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.1% (YTD: -3.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,680<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +6.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,446<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.8% (YTD: +11.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 71.07<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3,009<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 83,982<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7% (YTD: -10.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 0.3% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 5.5 bn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Entaj (+30.0%), Retal (+7.2%) and Astra Industrial (+4.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Naqi (-4.3%), Arabian Shield (-3.9%) and Ardco (-3.9%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> fell 0.8% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 50.8 mn. The index is down 1.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Apico (+27.0%), AlHasoob (+9.2%) and Naba Alsaha (+7.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Keir (-13.6%), Sama Water (-7.0%) and Osool and Bakheet (-5.6%).<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

Sadafco<\/a><\/strong> is <\/strong>distributing some SAR 288 mn in dividends for 2H 2024<\/strong> at SAR 9.00 per share, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The eligibility date is set for 19 March, while distribution is scheduled for 10 April.<\/p>\n

Alkhoraye<\/a><\/strong>f Water and Power Technologies Company<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s board also greenlit the <\/strong>distribution of SAR<\/strong> 52.5 mn in dividends for FY 2024 <\/strong>at SAR 1.50 a share, pending shareholders' approval at the next general assembly meeting, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The eligibility date will be the second trading day after the meeting, with the distribution date to be announced later.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It also sees inflation coming in higher than previously forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[27,10,55,335,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-95398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-gdp","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0900c6c6-7f88-4cf3-8e03-ae2ea2c28f9b","order":"13","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/1363.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Brewing trade war to weigh on global growth, OECD says","related_issue":[95374],"teaser":"It also sees inflation coming in higher than previously forecast","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.ffd19652-f249-4e74-bf61-25d1f4df3912.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nBrewing trade war to weigh on global growth, OECD says - 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