{"id":95111,"date":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/03\/10\/how-saudi-arabia-could-be-affected-by-opecs-decision-to-ramp-up-production-in-april\/"},"modified":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-10T00:00:00","slug":"how-saudi-arabia-could-be-affected-by-opecs-decision-to-ramp-up-production-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/03\/10\/how-saudi-arabia-could-be-affected-by-opecs-decision-to-ramp-up-production-in-april\/","title":{"rendered":"How Saudi Arabia could be affected by Opec+\u2019s decision to ramp up production in April"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>Sliding <\/strong>oil prices prompt questions over Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil pledges:<\/strong> Opec+\u2019s decision last week to move forward with raising production levels in April and the subsequent slide in oil prices \u201cclose to multi-month lows\u201d are raising questions over \u201cwhether the group\u2019s key decision maker Saudi Arabia will stick to the plans,\u201d Capital Economics wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM.<\/p>\n

REFRESHER-<\/strong> Opec+ agreed<\/a> to stick to plans to revive supply in April following repeated delays, with the group citing \u201chealthy market fundamentals\u201d and a \u201cpositive outlook.\u201d Opec+ kept the door open, however, for future changes in policy, saying that the increase may be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. \u201cThis flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability,\u201d the group said.<\/p>\n

The Kingdom is set to raise production by 10% by the end of 2026, <\/strong>partially unwinding its 1 mn bbl \/ d voluntary cut. This is higher than other Gulf states including Kuwait and Oman \u2014 which plan on raising production by about 5% \u2014 but shy of the UAE\u2019s planned 15% production hike.<\/p>\n

Where oil prices stand:<\/strong> Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to USD 71.04 \/ bbl right after the decision was announced, recovering from an intraday low of USD 69.75. Futures currently stand at USD 70.36 \/ bbl. WTI crude fell 0.2% to USD 68.26 \/ bbl last Tuesday, and is down further to USD 66.72 \/ bbl today. <\/p>\n

Falling prices \u201cmay not sit quite right with Saudi Arabia in particular,\u201d<\/strong> Capital Economics argued, saying that if its prediction of the Kingdom\u2019s oil production rising to 10 mn bbl \/ d by the end of 2026 happens concurrently with a drop in oil prices to USD 60 \/ bbl, it would lead to a larger fall in oil revenues than the country is experiencing under current conditions. <\/p>\n

Falling oil prices could pressure the government\u2019s fiscal position and widen the SAR 101 <\/strong>bn deficit it penciled for 2025<\/strong>, potentially leading to the scaleback of some projects, the National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) wrote<\/a> in a report last week.<\/p>\n

BUT-<\/strong> Saudi Arabia could be willing to bear the fiscal pressure from falling oil revenues \u201cif it strengthens its long-term position in the oil market,\u201d Capital Economics caveats.<\/p>\n

On the flipside, lower dividends from Aramco could create more budget pressure:<\/strong> Aramco\u2019s decision to cut its dividends by 31% in 2025, which is expected to widen Saudi Arabia\u2019s budget deficit to 4% of GDP from 2.8% in 2024. Along with the potential hit to oil-related revenues, the lower dividends could lead to \u201ca wider budget deficit than projected and increase the pressure for more fiscal consolidation measures,\u201d according to Capital Economics.<\/p>\n

Taxation presents a more sustainable approach in the long-term for the Kingdom:<\/strong> \u201cA longer term approach to put the Kingdom\u2019s public finances on a stronger footing would be to increase non-oil revenues through taxation,\u201d Capital Economics wrote. Saudi Arabia remains behind other Gulf states that have more formal corporation tax and real estate taxes, which could be derailing the Kingdom\u2019s goal of doubling non-oil revenues in the next five years from the revenues accrued in 2024, which Capital Economics estimates to be SAR 502 bn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil prices slid following Opec+\u2019s decision, raising questions over the Kingdom\u2019s likelihood of sticking to output hikes<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95112,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,2687,514],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-95111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-oil","tag-opec-2","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"c2d349e9-4f0b-4896-bf2e-c8f87f662113","order":"4","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/3\/692.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"How Saudi Arabia could be affected by Opec+\u2019s decision to ramp up production in April","related_issue":[95104],"teaser":"Oil prices slid following Opec+\u2019s decision, raising questions over the Kingdom\u2019s likelihood of sticking to output hikes","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/3\/.0620f303-b0a5-4bd2-b2c1-952bd58c9365.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nHow Saudi Arabia could be affected by Opec+\u2019s decision to ramp up production in April - 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