{"id":93947,"date":"2025-02-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/02\/02\/saudi-gdp-grows-1-3-in-2024-buoyed-by-non-oil-activities\/"},"modified":"2025-02-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-02T00:00:00","slug":"saudi-gdp-grows-1-3-in-2024-buoyed-by-non-oil-activities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2025\/02\/02\/saudi-gdp-grows-1-3-in-2024-buoyed-by-non-oil-activities\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi GDP grows 1.3% in 2024, buoyed by non-oil activities"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/strong>Saudi Arabia\u2019s economy <\/strong>rebounded in 2024, with real GDP growing 1.3% y-o-y<\/strong>, after contracting 0.8% in 2023 on the back of oil production cuts and lower crude prices, according to flash estimates (pdf)<\/a> released by the General Authority of Statistics (Gastat). <\/p>\n

The full-year growth figure<\/strong> is an uptick from the Finance Ministry\u2019s <\/strong>0.8%<\/a><\/strong> growth forecast<\/strong>, after revising down its initial forecast of 4.4%<\/a>. The Kingdom\u2019s GDP growth for 2024 was also higher than the World Bank\u2019s revised estimate of 1.1% in December<\/a>, and only 0.1 percentage point lower than the IMF\u2019s recently revised 1.4% clip<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Driving the growth: <\/strong>A 4.3% expansion in non-oil activities and a 2.6% increase in government activities spurred the growth. Oil activities, on the other hand, shrank 4.5%.<\/p>\n

\n

EXPANSION SUSTAINED IN 4Q-<\/p>\n

GDP grew by 4.4% y-o-y in 4Q last year<\/strong>, marking the highest growth rate in two years, according to Gastat, driven primarily by a 4.6% y-o-y increase in non-oil activities. Meanwhile, oil activities grew 3.4% y-o-y, while government activities grew 2.2% y-o-y. <\/p>\n

REMEMBER- <\/strong>Real GDP grew 2.8% y-o-y in 3Q<\/a>, snapping a four-quarter downward trend<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pundits weigh in: <\/strong>The oil sector\u2019s strength in 4Q \u201cis surprising given the extension of Opec+ cuts until April,\u201d Goldman Sachs Group\u2019s MENA Economist Farouk Soussa told Bloomberg<\/a>. Sousa flagged \u201ca high level of Vision 2030-related investment and socio-economic reforms\u201d as key drivers for non-oil growth.<\/p>\n

On a quarterly basis:<\/strong> Seasonally adjusted real GDP was up 0.3% q-o-q in 4Q, supported by an increase of 1.3% in non-oil activities and a 0.6% increase in government activities by 0.6%. Meanwhile, quarterly growth was partly offset by a 1.5% drop in oil activities on the back of the Kingdom\u2019s decision, along with the rest of Opec+, to extend existing oil output cuts until the end of 1Q 2025.<\/p>\n

Data breakdown:<\/strong> The 1.3% q-o-q growth acceleration in 4Q\u2019s non-oil economy, up from 0.7% in 3Q, is \u201cin tune with the low level activity data,\u201d Capital Economics MENA Economist James Swanston wrote in a note seen by EnterpriseAM Saudi. \u201cPrivate sector credit lending growth strengthened in October and November,\u201d Swanston said, adding that \u201cwhile the PMI survey fell back in December, it was still the second highest reading of the year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

LOOKING AHEAD-<\/p>\n

Growth set to gain momentum in the medium-term: <\/strong>The IMF<\/a> and the World Bank<\/a> have recently slashed the Kingdom\u2019s 2025 growth projections to 3.2% and 3.4% respectively, citing extended Opec+ production cuts. \u201cWe think GDP growth will accelerate this year as oil output cuts are unwound, but activity in the non-oil sector is likely to soften on the back of a turn to fiscal consolidation,\u201d Swanston said, noting that Capital Economics expects the Saudi economy to grow 3.5% in 2025.<\/p>\n

Driving growth in 2026: <\/strong>The World Bank upgraded its growth forecast for the economy of the world's biggest crude exporter to 5.4%, up from its previous forecast of 3.2%, as it expects \u201crobust activity in the non-oil sector \u2014 especially in services \u2014 as well as higher oil production and exports,\u201d the bank said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report. Meanwhile, the IMF penciled in a 4.1% growth clip in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Kingdom\u2019s real GDP grew 4.4% y-o-y in 4Q 2024, the highest in two years<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93948,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,335,1433,1365],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-93947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-gdp","tag-general-authority-for-statistics-gastat","tag-non-oil-economy","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"da3d0959-07de-4bb1-94b7-6c8b41d0cbcc","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/1577.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Saudi GDP grows 1.3% in 2024, buoyed by non-oil activities","related_issue":[93942],"teaser":"The Kingdom\u2019s real GDP grew 4.4% y-o-y in 4Q 2024, the highest in two years","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2025\/2\/.0f0c7367-00c7-4b63-8929-eba1499e95ec.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nSaudi GDP grows 1.3% in 2024, buoyed by non-oil activities - 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