{"id":91239,"date":"2024-11-05T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/11\/05\/election-jitters-and-fed-rate-decision-set-to-shake-wall-street-this-week\/"},"modified":"2024-11-05T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T00:00:00","slug":"election-jitters-and-fed-rate-decision-set-to-shake-wall-street-this-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/11\/05\/election-jitters-and-fed-rate-decision-set-to-shake-wall-street-this-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Election jitters and Fed rate decision set to shake Wall Street this week"},"content":{"rendered":"

Traders gear up for an all-nighter as US elections loom:<\/strong> Wall Street is bracing for a long, volatile night as traders prepare for the results of the US presidential election today, with trading desks in Hong Kong and Singapore ready to support overnight activities. As one portfolio manager put it, \u201c5 November is going to be a blindfolded mud-wrestle in a minefield,\u201d pointing out the uncertainty revolving around the elections this time around.<\/p>\n

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links <\/strong>to our background as well as external sources.)<\/p>\n

Everybody is preparing for the big night:<\/strong> Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are staffing up to ensure their trading desks are ready to handle high volumes and volatility throughout the election night. \u201cWe will stay as long as we need \u2014 if that\u2019s 2 am, it\u2019s 2 am. If we have to sleep over, we will,\u201d said Glen Capelo of Mischler Financial Group.<\/p>\n

Focus on bonds and currencies:<\/strong> The ICE BofA Move index \u2014 a key measure of expected volatility in the US bond market \u2014 surged by 40% last month, while the CME index of implied volatility across major currencies hit its highest level since early 2023. <\/p>\n

What happens if who wins?<\/strong> Traders have been putting their money on former president Donald Trump winning for weeks, pushing up stocks, currencies, and crypto, all while bond yields were on the rise. After a poll showed that the Democratic Party\u2019s Kamala Harris has a lead over Trump in Iowa, the Bloomberg USD Index dropped to its lowest since August, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell, and BTC slipped. Traders are eyeing the return of popular \u201cTrump trades\u201d \u2014 going long on the USD and short on bonds \u2014 with plans to either capitalize on or swiftly unwind these positions, depending on how the results go. But if Harris pulls the rug from under Trump\u2019s feet, Trump trades could reverse, leaving behind dramatic swings in the market overnight.<\/p>\n

Lessons from the past:<\/strong> Traders are revisiting the 2016 elections, when markets initially misread the results of the polls, pushing US futures to swing widely. This time, hedge funds are scaling back risks and preparing for any unexpected moves. \u201cEquity markets collapsed after Trump was elected [in 2016], but that lasted a day, then they rallied,\u201d noted Ed Al Hussainy of Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Traders are adopting a neutral stance to shore up their liquidity. \u201cWe\u2019ve spent a lot of time cleaning up our inventory and our own positions in order to be as neutral as possible to approach the event from the perspective of providing that intermediation,\u201d Citi\u2019s Vikram Prasad said.<\/p>\n

It's not just the Oval Office that matters<\/strong>, as market reactions also hinge on Congressional outcomes. A Republican sweep could trigger inflation and higher bond yields, as Trump\u2019s plans to cut tax and import tariffs could very much reverse the course on inflation and increase US national debt, while a divided Congress may limit policy shifts, offering some balance.<\/p>\n

Ongoing market volatility could extend beyond today<\/strong>, as Wall Street braces for potentially delayed or contested election results. Such scenarios could lead to a prolonged market uncertainty, making it difficult for traders to navigate. There\u2019s also the Federal Reserve\u2019s upcoming rate decision on Thursday, where a second consecutive rate cut is widely expected, with one survey showing that 98% of traders are banking on a 25 bps cut by the end of this week. The Fed\u2019s decision will play a key role in shaping post-election market dynamics, as traders balance election outcomes with potential shifts in monetary policy.<\/p>\n

Market reax:<\/strong> It was a sea of red across US markets with the Dow Jones ending the first trading day of the week down 0.6%, the S&P 500 dipping 0.3%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.3%. <\/p>\n

The story is all over international press<\/strong>: Bloomberg<\/a> | FT<\/a> | CNBC<\/a>. <\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are mixed at dispatch time<\/strong> as investors sit awaiting the results of the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve\u2019s decision when it meets later this week. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is up 1.3% and South Korea\u2019s Kospi is down 0.5%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,039<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +0.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,512<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

0.0% (YTD: -2.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

28,063<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.8% (YTD: +14.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.5% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,650<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +23.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,331<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -2.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,585<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.8% (YTD: +12.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,713<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: +19.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,184<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,852<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +7.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 75.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.78<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+4.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,746<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 68,072<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +60.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.1% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 6.2 bn. The index is up +0.6% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Burgerizzr (+10.0%), Retal (+9.6%) and Al Baha (+7.1%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Epcco (-6.8%), SRMG (-4.2%) and APC (-4.0%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 2.8% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 93.1 mn. The index is up 14.4% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Jahez (+12.9%), Paper Home (+8.9%) and Al Hasoob (+8.7%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Meyar (-7.1%), Taqat (-6.6%) and NGDC (-4.6%)<\/p>\n

\n

CORPORATE ACTIONS-<\/p>\n

#1-<\/strong> Walaa Cooperative Ins. has issued a <\/strong>prospectus (pdf)<\/a><\/strong> for a SAR 467.5 mn rights issue <\/strong>at SAR 11 per share to boost capital.<\/strong> The capital increase \u2014 which represents nearly 50% of current capital \u2014 is intended to support the company\u2019s expansion plans and to maintain its credit rating. The funds will be funneled towards investments and to increase its statutory deposit as per Sama regulations. Unsubscribed shares will be grouped into a rump offering for institutional investors. <\/p>\n

ADVISORS- <\/strong>Walaa tapped Aljazira Capital as financial advisor, lead manager, and underwriter for the sale. Khaligyoun Legal Advisors is stepping in as legal advisor while Crowe Solutions and El Sayed El Ayouty will serve as auditors. <\/p>\n

#2- <\/strong>Saudi Top<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s board tapped <\/strong>Wathiq Financial Company<\/a><\/strong> as a financial advisor to<\/strong> manage its transition from Nomu to Tadawaul\u2019s main market<\/strong>, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. The move is still subject to CMA approval and to fulfilling requirements for the upgrade.<\/p>\n

#3- SAL Saudi Logistics Services\u2019 board greenlit a SAR 116 mn dividend distribution <\/strong>at SAR 1.45 per share for 3Q 2024, to be distributed by Saturday, 30 November, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. <\/p>\n

#4- Saudi Telecom Company (Stc) will distribute SAR 2 bn in dividends at SAR 0.4 per<\/strong> share <\/strong>for 3Q 2024, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul<\/a>. Distribution is set for Tuesday, 26 November.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets could see significant shifts in the coming days<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91240,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,2490,55,59,3371,239],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-91239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-federal-reserve","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","tag-politics","tag-wall-street","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"8b09fb65-7e28-4300-a1e8-db829a11d8e9","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/11\/302.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Election jitters and Fed rate decision set to shake Wall Street this week","related_issue":[91222],"teaser":"Markets could see significant shifts in the coming days","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/11\/.517a9831-e080-4c4d-83af-44c586d6749b.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nElection jitters and Fed rate decision set to shake Wall Street this week - 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