{"id":90591,"date":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/10\/16\/global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says\/"},"modified":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T00:00:00","slug":"global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/10\/16\/global-debt-outlook-worse-than-expected-imf-says\/","title":{"rendered":"Global debt outlook \u201cworse than expected,\u201d IMF says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Crossing the USD 100 tn mark:<\/strong> Global public debt is on track to surpass USD 100 tn by year\u2019s end, representing 93% of global GDP, the IMF said in a blog<\/a> ahead of the full release of its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor<\/a>report<\/a>, which is due to be published in full next week. Public debt is also set to exceed 100% by 2030, 10 percentage points above 2019 levels before the pandemic ushered in higher fiscal spending. <\/p>\n

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n

Worst-case scenario: <\/strong>Slower economic growth, tighter borrowing conditions, fiscal \u201cslippages,\u201d and economic and political uncertainty could see global debt soaring to 115% of global GDP within three years, the IMF says. Higher uncertainty in major economies such as the US could also create ripple effects increasing borrowing costs for more vulnerable countries. <\/p>\n

Driving the rise in fiscal debt:<\/strong> The IMF warns that, although two-thirds of countries are expected to see their public debt levels \u201cstabilize or decline,\u201d the debt outlook for many others may be \u201cworse than expected.\u201d Budget demands due to aging populations and healthcare needs, the green transition, and geopolitical uncertainty have \u201ctilted\u201d the political discourse towards greater fiscal spending, placing added pressures on state coffers. Countries also tend to be overly optimistic with regards to their debt forecasts and consistently underestimate future debt burdens. <\/p>\n

Also a culprit? Unidentified debt:<\/strong> Countries are also facing a pileup of what the IMF calls \u201cunidentified debt,\u201d which the multilateral lender says has historically stood at 1-1.5% of GDP on average. That rate \u201cincreases sharply during periods of financial stress,\u201d the IMF notes. Unidentified debt \u201cstems from contingent liabilities and fiscal risks government face, of which most are related to losses in state-owned enterprises.\u201d<\/p>\n

REMEMBER-<\/strong> Emerging markets are also facing a wall of debt that many could struggle to repay, with a handful of countries at risk of defaulting over the next decade, S&P Global has said<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As inflation and interest rates come down, it\u2019s time to get moving on fiscal<\/strong> improvements:<\/strong> Cooling inflation and the start of the global monetary easing cycle mean that economies are in a better position today to absorb adverse effects from budget cuts, the IMF says. Economies should make use of this window to roll out budget cuts while seeking a \u201cjudicious mix of people- and growth-focused fiscal measures\u201d that balance the needs of low income individuals and economic output and growth, the multilateral lender said. Most economies will have to cut their budgets by about 3.8% of GDP over the next six years to see improvement, with China and the US requiring stronger measures to stabilize public debt.<\/p>\n

\n

ALSO FROM PLANET FINANCE-<\/p>\n

Adnoc finalizes Fertiglobe acquisition:<\/strong> Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) completed its USD 3.62 bn acquisition of OCI Global's 50% +1 stake in Fertiglobe, the Netherlands-domiciled chemical producer, according to a press release (pdf)<\/a> shared with EnterpriseAM UAE. The transaction increases Adnoc\u2019s stake in Fertiglobe to 86.2%, with the remaining 13.8% in free float on the ADX. <\/p>\n

What this means for Fertiglobe: <\/strong>Adnoc will \u201ctransfer its stakes in existing and future low-carbon ammonia projects to Fertiglobe at cost\u201d to Fertiglobe, according to the statement. This includes two lower-carbon ammonia projects in Abu Dhabi and other global projects. The transfer is expected to add some 2 mn tonnes per annum (mtpa), more than doubling Fertiglobe\u2019s current capacity of 1.6 mtpa. Once completed, the total sellable capacity for Fertiglobe will rise to 8.6 mtpa for ammonia and urea combined. <\/p>\n

\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are down in early trading this morning<\/strong>, mirroring declines yesterday on Wall Street. The Nikkei is down the most (-2.0%), but the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and ASX are all in the red. <\/p>\n

Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are little changed <\/strong>in overnight trading, while the FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 all look set to open in the red later this morning. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12,002<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4% (YTD: +0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,504<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -3.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25,919<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.9% (YTD: +5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.5% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5.0% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30<\/strong> <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

30,584<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.0% (YTD: +22.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,283<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,470<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,825<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6% (YTD: +22.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8,249<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: +6.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4,947<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.9% (YTD: +9.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 74.69<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-3.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.50<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2,679<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 66,580<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +57.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>rose 0.4% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 7.3 bn. The index is up 0.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Chubb (+8.2%), Saptco (+6.1%) and Cenomi Retail (+5.7%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Al Baha (-8.6%), Al Majed Oud (-2.6%) and Zoujaj (-2.6%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 1.9% yesterday <\/strong>on turnover of SAR 102.7mn. The index is up 5.7% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Ladun (+20.9%), Knowledge Tower (+12.9%) and Riyadh Steel (+8.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> NGDC (-7.7%), Fesh Fash (-6.0%) and Mobi Industry (-5.7%)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Public debts are expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2030<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90592,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[2441,10,55,337,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-90591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-debt","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-imf","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"f4ff0477-0e5e-4d84-b6ff-810ddba603b0","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/1284.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"IMF paints \u201cworse than expected\u201d picture of global debt outlook, passing USD 100 tn mark in 2024","related_issue":[90572],"teaser":"Public debts are expected to exceed 100% of global GDP by 2030","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.8e4388b4-83c2-4404-9dec-6d30fbea89ac.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nGlobal debt outlook \u201cworse than expected,\u201d IMF says - 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