{"id":90144,"date":"2024-10-02T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/10\/02\/finmin-expects-growth-to-jump-to-4-6-in-2025\/"},"modified":"2024-10-02T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-02T00:00:00","slug":"finmin-expects-growth-to-jump-to-4-6-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/10\/02\/finmin-expects-growth-to-jump-to-4-6-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"FinMin expects growth to jump to 4.6% in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The government expects Saudi\u2019s GDP to register 4.6% growth in 2025<\/strong>, the Finance Ministry said in its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/64.pdf\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">pre-budget statement for FY 2025 (pdf)<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">(<strong>** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links<\/strong> to our background and outside sources.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The statement expects the budget deficit to come in at 2.3% of GDP, narrowing 0.6 <\/strong><strong>percentage points<\/strong> from the government\u2019s expectation of a 2.9% deficit in 2024. The budget deficit is expected to come in at SAR 101 bn in 2025, the ministry said, as a faster decline in expenditures offsets some of the fall in revenues. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Money in, money out: <\/strong>Total revenues are expected to come in at SAR 1.18 tn in 2025, as the government maintains a reserved outlook on oil and non-oil revenues. That\u2019s a notch above the SAR 1.17 tn the ministry had initially budgeted for 2024, but is below the estimated actual revenue of SAR 1.24 tn this year. Expenditures are expected to come in at SAR 1.29 tn in 2025, which again is above the initial budget figures but below the estimated actual figures for 2024. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>IN CONTEXT-<\/strong> The government continues to double down on diversification plans and gigaprojects while <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/ec1a5a17-e4c2-4d18-bcd5-0c94dffd7445\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">staying clear of \u201coverheating\u201d<\/a> the national economy. Officials have also said that they\u2019re willing to accept <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/730d70af-1544-402a-a451-1b7b212ad097\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">modest fiscal deficits<\/a> as the price of pursuing long-term diversification.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>FinMin\u2019s budget scenarios for 2025:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Baseline scenario: <\/strong>A budget deficit of SAR 101 bn \u2014 with revenues at SAR 1.18 tn and expenditures at SAR 1.29 tn;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Low scenario: <\/strong>A budget deficit of SAR 164 bn \u2014 with revenues at SAR 1.12 tn and expenditures at SAR 1.29 tn;<\/li>\n<li><strong>High scenario: <\/strong>A budget deficit of SAR 44 bn \u2014 with revenues at SAR 1.24 tn and expenditures at SAR 1.29 tn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Plugging the gap:<\/strong> The Kingdom will continue to draw on debt markets to meet its financing needs, as its strong fiscal position allows it to maintain its reserves and draw on an \u201cadditional fiscal space\u201d to fill funding gaps. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A new annual borrowing plan? <\/strong>FinMin is set to introduce an annual medium-term borrowing plan through the National Debt Management Center as it looks to shore up debt sustainability and diversify funding by accessing global debt markets, it said in the statement. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>What the pundits are saying:<\/strong> \u201cOn the expenditure side, the Saudis are forecasting a cut in spending, but persistent past spending overshoots make this doubtful,\u201d <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-09-30\/saudi-arabia-plans-spending-cuts-as-lower-oil-curbs-ambition\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Bloomberg<\/a> cites Goldman Sachs MENA economist Farouk Soussa as saying. Soussa also raises \u201cbig questions around production targets and global oil prices\u201d and how those will affect revenue targets. <\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">HOW 2024 IS LOOKING-<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Real GDP is forecasted to grow at a <\/strong><strong>0.8%<\/strong><strong> clip in 2024<\/strong>, on the back of a 3.7% increase in non-oil activities, as well as growth in private consumption and investment, according to the pre-budget statement. The latest estimate represents a downgrade from the 4.4% GDP growth forecast Finance Minister Mohamed Al Jadaan had outlined for 2024 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/05ff811b-9eff-456e-ac29-1f92de557a06\/finmin-unveils-2024-state-budget-%2B-no-word-yet-on-mbc%25e2%2580%2599s-tadawul-ipo-pricing\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">last December<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER:<\/strong> Saudi\u2019s GDP <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/dce6acc6-5b86-406a-80f9-32785e245dca\/%253cmark%253egdp%253c%2Fmark%253e-continues-to-shrink,-albeit-at-a-slower-pace\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">shrank 0.4% in 2Q 2024<\/a>, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Economic growth forecasts have trended downward all year: <\/strong>Saudi\u2019s GDP was initially pegged by Saudi officials in January to grow at around <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/1dfc08e3-862b-4799-ad63-f7e3163627d7\/fitch-sees-rising-private-borrowing,-strong-year-ahead-for-non-oil-businesses-in-the-gulf#:~:text=REMEMBER%2D%20The%20government%20is%20positive%20on%20its%20non%2Doil%20GDP%2C\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">4.5-5.0%<\/a> this year, with the World Bank expecting 4.1% growth. The World Bank later <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/6c7b50e3-505d-4cec-99bb-edc2bbe7119d\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">slashed its estimate to 2.5%<\/a> \u2014 a number it later <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/affbdcc3-297f-4bc8-b91a-6529d9a0471e\/%253cmark%253eworld-bank%253c%2Fmark%253e-maintains-saudi%25e2%2580%2599s-economic-growth-forecast-at-2.5%2525-in-2024\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">maintained in June<\/a>. Meanwhile, the IMF cut back an earlier 4% forecast to <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/7d444a42-5759-4a7e-8680-6f4261ef0abc\/imf-trims-the-kingdom%25e2%2580%2599s-growth-outlook\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">2.7% in January<\/a>, before slashing it again 2.6% in April, and finally <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/38d7a9ac-18f0-41ad-a4e6-56c1b6ccce7f\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">to 1.7% in July<\/a>. More recently, a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/6e7a9190-2f11-4f61-a970-122be8975b9b\/saudi%253cmark%253e-gdp%253c%2Fmark%253e-growth-to-fall-behind-peers-in-the-gcc,-poll-suggests\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters poll<\/a> and a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/72ef6c27-3537-4c7d-a5c2-a2f00f18408c\/gdp-set-to-grow-at-a-1.5%2525-clip-this-year,-riyad-capital-says\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Riyad Capital forecast<\/a> penciled in growth clips of 1.3% and 1.5%. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The government expects to record a budget deficit of SAR 118 bn (2.9% of GDP) in 2024<\/strong>, compared to a SAR 79 bn deficit in its approved budget for the year, and marking a 45.7% y-o-y increase from <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/ksa\/en\/news\/story\/730d70af-1544-402a-a451-1b7b212ad097\/state-budget-closes-fy-2023-in-deficit\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">2023's SAR 81 bn deficit<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Expenditures rose faster than revenues, with both categories up:<\/strong> Total expenditures for 2024 are forecasted at SAR 1.4 tn, SAR 104 bn more than budgeted, while total revenues are estimated at SAR 1.2 tn, SAR 65 bn than the figure penciled in for the year\u2019s budget. Despite revenues being higher than expected, \u201cspending is where the increase happened,\u201d <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/saudi-arabia-expects-2024-deficit-widen-3-gdp-2024-09-30\/\" style=\"\" rel=\"noopener\">Reuters<\/a> cited Riyad Bank's Chief Economist Naif al Ghaith as saying.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation is set to cool to 1.7% in 2024<\/strong>, down from 2023\u2019s 2.3%, on the back of \u201cproactive measures and policies to control rising prices,\u201d the ministry said in its report. Inflation will then accelerate to 1.9% the following year and stabilize there until 2027. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The budget deficit is expected to narrow next year<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90145,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,273,335,21,567],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-90144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-finance-ministry","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-state-budget","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"e65fed3e-05eb-40aa-92f4-ff2c2204bfec","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/10\/110.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"FinMin expects growth to jump to 4.6% in 2025 + deficit to narrow","related_issue":[90139],"teaser":"The budget deficit is expected to narrow next year","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/10\/.1a9d4a00-80a8-4746-a465-34a3cc1cb976.mp3"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - 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