{"id":84875,"date":"2024-03-31T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-31T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/03\/31\/asset-managers-underweighting-saudi-are-missing-the-boat-efg-hermes-shams-el-din\/"},"modified":"2024-03-31T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-31T00:00:00","slug":"asset-managers-underweighting-saudi-are-missing-the-boat-efg-hermes-shams-el-din","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2024\/03\/31\/asset-managers-underweighting-saudi-are-missing-the-boat-efg-hermes-shams-el-din\/","title":{"rendered":"Asset managers underweighting Saudi are missing the boat \u2013EFG Hermes\u2019 Shams El Din"},"content":{"rendered":"

Why are some asset managers not yet convinced Saudi is the world\u2019s most <\/strong>compelling economic story?<\/strong> We sat down with our friend EFG Hermes Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din to discuss why foreign investors in public markets are still shy on Saudi, the outlook for the banking sector, and overlooked pockets of opportunity. Shams splits his time between Riyadh and Cairo, where EFG Hermes is headquartered. <\/p>\n

Foreign institutional investors are overlooking Saudi public equities:<\/strong> From a public equity perspective, foreign institutional investors are underweight on Saudi, Shams El Din said. Valuation has always been a concern for countries on the cup between smaller-sized emerging markets and larger-sized frontier markets, Shams El Din explained. <\/p>\n

Investors that are underweighting Saudi Arabia have been proven wrong for three years <\/strong>in a row<\/strong>, Shams El Din said. \u201cForeign institutional investors \u2014 particularly when they\u2019re looking at emerging markets \u2014 buy into banks at 1x book [value], consumer stocks at 15x, petrochemicals at 10-12x on average. They find it very hard to pay 25x for a company that has similar fundamentals.\u201d Saudi Arabia offers a stronger growth outlook and lower risk, and investors have struggled to translate this into a valuation that makes them comfortable.<\/p>\n

Part of the problem: The Saudi model has yet to be digested<\/strong>, Shams El Din explained. Investors don\u2019t fully understand the Saudi transformation story the same way they understand markets like Vietnam, which is heavily export-driven. Saudi Arabia is diversifying its economy away from the oil sector, but the country is investing in areas where oil liquidity is needed, he said.<\/p>\n

The socioeconomic changes \u2014 all of which are positive \u2014 that have been happening on <\/strong>the ground over the past several years took many investors by surprise<\/strong>, Shams El Din said. The domestic story in Saudi Arabia right now is all about focusing on shifts such as women\u2019s empowerment and a first-ever focus on tourism. \u201cIt\u2019s taking time for the investment community to start pricing the socioeconomic changes that are happening on the ground. But it\u2019s about time \u2014 they can\u2019t keep underpricing Saudi<\/strong>,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s about investing in the Saudi story, rather than focusing on just investing in large <\/strong>caps:<\/strong> Foreign institutional investors have zeroed in on large caps such as Saudi Aramco, SNB, and Sabic, according to Shams El Din. \u201cAll the companies that have had really strong stories over the past couple of years are technically small caps, but that\u2019s because large caps constitute 60-70% of the market weight,\u201d Shams El Din said. \u201cYou don\u2019t play the Saudi story \u2014 the domestic demand story \u2014 with large caps, which are all petroleum, exports, and banks.\u201d <\/p>\n

Mid-caps have been outperforming:<\/strong> \u201cIf you remove the five biggest large caps from your calculations, the dynamics change completely and the market re-segments,\u201d he said. The vast majority of names that have made \u201cphenomenal\u201d returns over the past five years are small caps in the Saudi market. <\/p>\n

Still, a growing number of asset managers have appetite for the Saudi story: <\/strong>Retail investors now account for around 55% of the market, compared to c.95% five years ago. And even within the 55%, a growing number of retail investors are investing for yield, rather than just hit-and-run plays on momentum and gossip.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, liquidity in Saudi Arabia\u2019s banking sector is an area on which to keep your <\/strong>eyes<\/strong>, Shams El Din said. We\u2019re not talking about systemic risk here, Shams El Din says, but \u201cif you\u2019re diversifying [the economy] and you want private sector competitiveness to grow, you need to decentralize the funding options. The funding options right now are Saudi banks, but their loans-to-deposits ratios are stretched to the maximum,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Deposit growth is lagging behind credit and loan growth because of the massive <\/strong>investment in infrastructure.<\/strong> Credit penetration remains low, although borrowing capacity is huge, Shams El Din said. In the past two years, SAMA has intervened twice by injecting liquidity into the market, but that model doesn\u2019t go hand-in-hand with the new Saudi policies, he added. <\/p>\n

The solution? A \u201cvery active capital market,\u201d<\/strong> Shams El Din suggests. \u201cThe dark horse in Saudi Arabia is debt capital markets (DCM), not equity capital markets (ECM),\u201d he said. Private issuances in debt capital markets have been picking up over the past few months, but they\u2019re still lagging behind most emerging markets: Where the average emerging market has DCM issuances that are around 25% of GDP, Saudi Arabia\u2019s currently stands at 3% of GDP<\/strong>, Shams El Din said. <\/p>\n

A growing debt market will be key to sustain valuations we\u2019re seeing in public equities<\/strong>, which have seen \u201can impressive turnaround,\u201d Shams El Din stressed. \u201cWithout DCM, however, the hype that we\u2019re seeing on ECM is not going to be sustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n

Key to sustaining international interest: continued improvement in the regulatory and <\/strong>policy environments<\/strong>, including recent changes on zakat: \u201cYou can\u2019t pay 2.5% zakat on fixed income because the yield is only 4%,\u201d Shams El Din said. These types of regulatory changes would go a long way towards helping investors better understand and price the market, which will spur more investments.<\/p>\n

Another area where regulatory overhaul will go a long way: The country\u2019s real estate <\/strong>sector<\/strong>, which Shams El Din also identified as one of the undiscovered gems of the Saudi story. Regulatory changes on real estate ownership would be very positive for driving foreign investors into the economy, particularly as \u201cthere\u2019s still a lot of uncertainty on how foreigners would buy real estate<\/strong>,\u201d he said. \u201cReal estate is a very decent sector itself \u2014 it\u2019s huge in terms of liquidity, but it\u2019s dominated by private builders. The Saudi market needs a national champion in the real estate sector<\/strong> \u2014 the market currently has a handful of very small players, which are all very well managed but can\u2019t be considered national champions, Shams El Din said. \u201cThere has to be consolidation and legislative or regulatory reforms for foreign ownership.\u201d<\/p>\n

Petrochemicals also remains an interesting sector, but is over-penalized largely due to <\/strong>cyclical and structural factors<\/strong>, Shams El Din said. It\u2019s \u201csignificantly outperformed the market,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Plus: Why small-caps are the name of the gem, overlooked pockets of opportunity and the outlook for the banking sector<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84876,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2789],"tags":[19,2419,2441,387,547,10],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-84875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics","tag-banking","tag-capital-markets","tag-debt","tag-economics","tag-efg-hermes","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"4bcd3720-29a6-4af8-bd2d-4f648523c1e2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2024\/3\/2611.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"Asset managers are still underweighting Saudi \u2013EFG Hermes\u2019 Shams El Din","full_issue_title":"Asset managers underweighting Saudi are missing the boat \u2013EFG Hermes\u2019 Shams El Din","related_issue":[84871],"teaser":"Plus: Why small-caps are the name of the gem, overlooked pockets of opportunity and the outlook for the banking sector","voice_url":"https:\/\/s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com\/ent.news\/audio\/2024\/4\/.ef9725ca-1307-4b25-81a9-5afc709470cb.mp3"},"yoast_head":"\nAsset managers underweighting Saudi are missing the boat \u2013EFG Hermes\u2019 Shams El Din - 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