{"id":110448,"date":"2026-06-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=110448"},"modified":"2026-06-21T03:18:22","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T03:18:22","slug":"economists-slashed-saudi-arabias-2026-growth-forecast-and-bet-the-kingdom-will-lead-the-gulfs-recovery-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/21\/economists-slashed-saudi-arabias-2026-growth-forecast-and-bet-the-kingdom-will-lead-the-gulfs-recovery-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists slashed Saudi Arabia\u2019s 2026 growth forecast \u2014 and bet the Kingdom will lead the Gulf\u2019s recovery next year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <strong>The war battered Saudi Arabia's near-term economic outlook, but economists still <\/strong><strong>expect that <\/strong><strong>the Kingdom will lead the Gulf out of the downturn next year.<\/strong> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/asharqbusiness.com\/economics\/137308\/%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%BA-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%BA%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%B6%D8%BA%D8%B7-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D9%81%D9%8A-2026\/\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a> more than halved its 2026 Saudi growth forecast to 1.6% after conducting a survey on 12-17 June, down from 4.4% three months ago. It also raised the 2027 number to 5.8%, up from 3.5% \u2014 one of the survey\u2019s sharpest upgrades and an indication that Saudi Arabia and Qatar will anchor the regional rebound.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The non-oil economy absorbed the shocks from the war far better than the headline number suggests. <\/strong>Economists trimmed their 2026 non-oil growth forecasts to 3%, down from 4%. The figure remains firmly positive, even as they flipped the UAE (-2.8%), Qatar (-2%), and Kuwait\u2019s (-2.2%) non-oil economies into outright contraction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER- <\/strong>GDP growth reached 3% y-o-y <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/10\/saudi-arabias-economy-slows-in-1q-hampered-by-oil-activities\/\" style=\"\">in 1Q<\/a>, with non-oil activity contributing 1.7 percentage points. Pundits credit the East-West pipeline for keeping export revenue flowing while shipping through the Gulf virtually stopped. Economists also tied the resilience to steady domestic demand and consumer confidence holding through the fighting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Looking ahead<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The caveat: <\/strong>The forecast rests on Opec+ continuing to unwind output cuts, as well as gigaproject spending holding through 2027, when non-oil growth is forecast to recover to 3.4%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Watch for inflation: <\/strong>The panel nudged its 2026 forecast up to 2.3% from 1.8%, citing higher food and freight costs. Inflation <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/16\/inflation-subdued-in-may-despite-war-pressures\/\" style=\"\">proved resilient<\/a> in the first few months of the year, still running at 1.8% in May.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The non-oil economy endured the effects of the war far better than the headline number suggests<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2571],"tags":[27,10,21],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110448","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-inflation","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"bab5fe61-a0f0-43c1-a21d-541eacf91dc6","order":"5","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/1084.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Bruised, not broken","related_issue":[110440],"teaser":"The non-oil economy endured the effects of the war far better than the headline number suggests"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Economists slashed Saudi Arabia\u2019s 2026 growth forecast \u2014 and bet the Kingdom will lead the Gulf\u2019s recovery next year - KSA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/21\/economists-slashed-saudi-arabias-2026-growth-forecast-and-bet-the-kingdom-will-lead-the-gulfs-recovery-next-year\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economists slashed Saudi Arabia\u2019s 2026 growth forecast \u2014 and 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