{"id":110282,"date":"2026-06-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=110282"},"modified":"2026-06-17T02:58:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T02:58:31","slug":"hormuz-may-be-reopening-but-the-actual-recovery-of-flows-will-take-much-longer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/17\/hormuz-may-be-reopening-but-the-actual-recovery-of-flows-will-take-much-longer\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz may be reopening \u2014 but the actual recovery of flows will take much longer"},"content":{"rendered":"

The US-Iran agree<\/strong>ment to reopen Hormuz \u2014 likely on <\/strong>Friday, once <\/strong>the agreement is signed \u2014 is thawing the market<\/strong>, but it doesn\u2019t mean flows will recover anytime soon. Prices of crude are already cooling, with Dubai and Murban curves flipping into contango \u2014 meaning futures prices are higher than spot prices, a signal that traders believe supply will return \u2014 for the first time since the war began, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

And already, analysts are slashing their forecasts for oil prices. <\/strong>Goldman Sachs cut<\/a> its Brent crude forecast for 4Q to USD 80\/bbl, down from USD 90, and trimmed its 2026 average outlook to USD 75\/bbl from USD 80 \u2014 the bank\u2019s second<\/a> downward revision in a week. It also expects Gulf exports to normalize to pre-war levels by end-July, earlier than Goldman\u2019s previous end-August forecast.<\/p>\n

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser's read on how quickly the market will recover was a lot <\/strong>more bearish<\/strong>. Nasser told analysts on the company's first-quarter earnings call last month that even an immediate reopening would leave the oil market needing months to rebalance, and that had the strait stayed shut more than a few weeks longer, normalization wouldn't come until 2027.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a long checklist ahead for oil producers and shipping agencies alike before <\/strong>flows resume through the strait \u2014 and a long queue of ships.<\/strong> Around 500 ships<\/a> are waiting to exit the Gulf through Hormuz, which has gone from around 135 daily crossings to a trickle over the past several months. <\/p>\n

The International Maritime Organization is still assessing whether vessels can safely <\/strong>transit<\/strong>, looking at clearing mines, managing congestion, and establishing an evacuation corridor for seafarers stuck inside the Gulf for more than 100 days. <\/p>\n

Until that happens and until an agreement becomes \u201cmaterial,\u201d<\/strong> shipowners will likely wait it out, Japan\u2019s Mitsui OSK Lines CEO Jotaro Tamura \u2014 the world\u2019s largest tanker operator by vessel count, with more than 900 ships \u2014 told the Financial Times<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The pre-movement checklist includes naval safety assessments, insurer gu<\/strong>idance, and confirming the suspension of<\/strong> attacks<\/strong>, Antonella Teodoro, senior transport consultant at MDS Transmodal, tells EnterpriseAM. \u201cVessel scheduling adjustments and reductions in emergency surcharges would be early indicators of growing confidence,\u201d she adds. <\/p>\n

Mine-clearing might be the slowest item on that list \u2014 and it cannot be rushed. <\/strong>Mine-scouring using conventional minesweepers and underwater drones could take weeks \u2014 approximately 40-50 days \u2014 keeping shipowners cautious even after a political agreement is formally in place, Reuters<\/a> reports.<\/p>\n

A sudden return of capacity carries its own risks. <\/strong>Releasing the capacity that has been absorbed into longer voyages during the disruption back into the market creates a real risk of vessel bunching, port congestion, and pressure on hinterland logistics before networks can rebalance, Teodoro tells us.<\/p>\n

\n

Recovery \u2260 rewind<\/p>\n

Carriers will not simply reverse into their pre-war routes.<\/strong> \u201cThe recovery phase presents a window for carriers to reassess networks, vessel deployment, and capacity allocation rather than simply reverting to previous configurations,\u201d Teodoro tells us. Shorter routes might be especially prioritized at the beginning \u2014 cutting voyage times and lifting vessel productivity before longer-haul reconfiguration happens, she adds.<\/p>\n

Premiums could start falling within day<\/strong>s of a stable security environment<\/strong>, but don\u2019t expect everything to normalize at once. Carrier surcharges will adjust over subsequent sailing cycles; costs tied to schedule recovery and equipment repositioning will take longer, Teodoro notes.<\/p>\n

But it could get worse before it gets better:<\/strong> If too much capacity returns quickly, there could be a rate risk, she explains. Freight rates have already been elevated: The Platts VLCC benchmark stood at USD 278.7k per day by the end of May, more than double the USD 75.9k per day average since the index launched in March 2024.<\/p>\n

What shipping agencies and port operators will need t<\/strong>o do is coordinate a managed trickle back into the market, not a flood <\/strong>\u2014 whether by adjusting service frequencies, rationalizing port calls, or potentially keeping some of the network changes introduced during the disruption.<\/p>\n

Tankers are likely to move first; container lines last. <\/strong>Energy trades are concentrated around the region and benefit directly from shorter transits \u2014 so tankers have the clearest commercial incentive to return quickly. Container lines face a more complex calculation: any routing change ripples through global service networks and schedule reliability across multiple trades, Teodoro says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Around 500 ships are waiting to exit the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4693],"tags":[2425,10,238,87,4351,4692],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-big-story-today","tag-energy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-logistics","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-shipping-maritime","tag-the-big-story-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"2f0814ee-8b32-43b6-924a-69f5f5e4609e","order":"3","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/3\/897.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"When 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