{"id":110187,"date":"2026-06-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-16T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=110187"},"modified":"2026-06-16T03:12:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-16T03:12:40","slug":"markets-are-rushing-back-into-pre-war-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/16\/markets-are-rushing-back-into-pre-war-trades\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets are rushing back into pre-war trades"},"content":{"rendered":"

Investors are dusting off their pre-war playbook after the US a<\/strong>nd Iran reached an interim agreement <\/strong>that should lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Hedge funds are piling back into trades that worked before the conflict, buying everything from short-dated Treasuries and beaten-down Asian currencies to Southeast Asian equities and US consumer stocks, Bloomberg<\/a> reports. One fund manager said the trade is to go \u201cback to the future\u201d with what worked before the war.<\/p>\n

The biggest beneficiaries could be Asian: <\/strong>Hedge funds are turning bullish on oil-importing economies, including Japan, South Korea, and India, wagering lower crude prices will ease import bills and inflation pressures. Even instant-noodle stocks are back on investors\u2019 shopping lists because of their exposure to palm oil prices.<\/p>\n

Other sectors stand to gain as well: <\/strong>Investors are also eyeing Middle East-exposed industrials, logistics firms, and shipping companies that could benefit from a normalization of traffic through Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Why the optimism?<\/strong> The agreement removes a major overhang for global markets after months of fighting triggered a massive disruption to oil supply. Brent crude fell more than 5% toward USD 82 a barrel after the agreement announcement, Bloomberg<\/a> reported separately, while Treasury yields and the USD also moved lower as traders pared back expectations for future rate hikes.<\/p>\n

A lot still hinges on inflation: <\/strong>\u201cThe real test now is the inflationary legacy of this war,\u201d KCM Trade\u2019s Tim Waterer said, while several analysts expect the agreement to trigger a short-term rally rather than a long-term one. \u201cThe big question is how quickly this oil relief translates into lower inflation and whether that opens the door for central banks to take an easier stance on monetary policy,\u201d Waterer added.<\/p>\n

Not everyone is convinced:<\/strong> The agreement still leaves major questions unresolved, including sanctions relief, Iran\u2019s nuclear program, and the future operation of the Strait of Hormuz. While US President Donald Trump says the waterway will reopen on Friday, analysts warn traffic could take weeks to normalize and inflation expectations \u201cwon't reverse overnight,\u201d Aberdeen Investments\u2019 Michael Langham said.<\/p>\n

In other words, markets may be pricing the best-case scenario.<\/strong> Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu said the agreement must still survive Israeli opposition, Iranian hardliners, and a 60-day nuclear negotiation process. Stifel\u2019s Barry Bannister also warned that while oil may fall further in the short term, the lack of detail in the agreement means the geopolitical risk premium is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning<\/strong>, following yesterday\u2019s rally triggered by the announcement of a framework agreement between the US and Iran. Investors are now sitting tight awaiting a rate decision from the Bank of Japan, which is expected to raise rates to a multi-decade high when it meets later today. Japan\u2019s Nikkei is flat, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi is up 1.4%. <\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,096<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,479<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +6.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,984<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: -1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

52,307<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +25.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,805<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+2.7% (YTD: -1.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,954<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+3.8% (YTD: -1.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,554<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7% (YTD: +10.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,431<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: +5.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,229<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: +7.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 81.14<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas <\/strong>(Nymex)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.15<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,338<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 66,404<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.4% (YTD: -24.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

913.16<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -0.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA bond & sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

152.49<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +0.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

16.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-8.4% (YTD: +8.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 6.5 bn. The index is up 5.8% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Naseej (+8.7%), Flynas (+7.4%), and Saudi Cement (+7.0%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Luberef (-4.7%), Ades (-3.9%), and Bupa Arabia (-3.7%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 21.8 mn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Hilwa (+7.6%), Al Rashid Industrial (+6.6%), and Horizon Food (+6.2%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Al Mohafaza for Education (-9.7%), Lime Industries (-8.1%), and Edarat (-7.1%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hedge funds are piling into Asian stocks, Treasuries, and other pre-war favorites as falling oil prices fuel hopes that the US-Iran agreement will ease inflation pressures<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":110188,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-110187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"abaa8ada-e4b7-4a70-afd5-dc65b4237716","order":"10","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/906.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Back to the future","related_issue":[110170],"teaser":"Hedge funds are piling into Asian stocks, Treasuries, and other pre-war favorites as falling oil prices fuel hopes that the US-Iran agreement will ease inflation pressures"},"yoast_head":"\nMarkets are rushing back into pre-war trades - 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