{"id":109956,"date":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=109956"},"modified":"2026-06-11T03:20:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T03:20:16","slug":"fitch-turns-bearish-on-global-sovereigns-and-the-middle-east-is-taking-the-hardest-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/11\/fitch-turns-bearish-on-global-sovereigns-and-the-middle-east-is-taking-the-hardest-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"Fitch turns bearish on global sovereigns \u2014 and the Middle East is taking the hardest hit"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fitch turns bearish:<\/strong> Fitch revised its 2026 global sovereign sector outlook to \u201cdeteriorating\u201d from the \u201cneutral\u201d stance held in its late-2025 report, citing the economic and security fallout from the US-Iran war, according to the ratings agency\u2019s mid-year outlook report shared with EnterpriseAM. The revision covers every major region Fitch tracks (except for China) \u2014 and the Middle East bears the brunt of the damage.<\/p>\n

Ratings watch for most in the region, including Qatar and Ras Al Khaimah, has turned negative<\/strong>, with no positive outlooks regionwide, Fitch says.<\/p>\n

The agency\u2019s base case<\/strong> is where the Strait of Hormuz begins to reopen around July on the back of a US-Iran understanding, with oil production recovering quickly, given that infrastructure has largely escaped serious damage. Brent is now penciled in at USD 87 \/ bbl for 2026, up sharply from USD 68.3 \/ bbl last year \u2014 a windfall for Gulf exporters but a headache for import-dependent economies like Egypt and Jordan in the broader region.<\/p>\n

This is despite GCC ratings remaining resilient so far through the war. <\/strong>\u201cMost GCC sovereign ratings have been resilient to the war due to generally very strong sovereign balance sheets backed by alternative export channels (Oman, Saudi Arabia and UAE\/Abu Dhabi) or prospects for additional support (Bahrain),\u201d Paul Gamble, head of Middle East\/Africa sovereigns at Fitch, said.<\/p>\n

The outlook is still pretty bleak for the region: <\/strong>\u201cSecurity conditions will continue to test this near-term resilience and there will be a lasting adverse impact on the security and business environment<\/strong>,\u201d Gamble said.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,013<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.9% (YTD: +5.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,466<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.3% (YTD: +5.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

23,003<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.5% (YTD: -1.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

51,257<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.1% (YTD: +22.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,577<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.2% (YTD: -4.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,757<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.5% (YTD: -4.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,267<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.6% (YTD: +6.2%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,255<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.3% (YTD: +3.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6,010<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +3.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 94.66<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+1.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex) <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.20<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,110<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.6%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 62,138<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.7% (YTD: -29.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

910.96<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: -0.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.51<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22.22<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+11.8% (YTD: +48.6%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.9% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.7 bn. The index is up 5.0% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Gas Arabian Services (+6.1%), Artex (+5.1%), and Al Majed Oud (+4.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Yanbu Cement (-6.5%), Raoom Trading (-4.3%), and Almasane Alkobra (-3.8%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 16.2 mn. The index is down 1.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Tadweeer (+11.5%), Fad International (+10.3%), and Al Mohafaza Company (+9.8%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Khaled Dhafer (-9.8%), Multi Business (-7.3%), and National Building (-7.1%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ratings agency\u2019s base case is for a partial strait reopening \u2014 but warns the war\u2019s damage to the region\u2019s business environment will outlast the fighting<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109957,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[27,10,55,3310,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-109956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-economy","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-fitch","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"168a9f98-97b0-4e16-98a5-56fd8dba3bee","order":"9","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/6\/697.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Resilient \u2014 for now","related_issue":[109941],"teaser":"The ratings agency\u2019s base case is for a partial strait reopening \u2014 but warns the war\u2019s damage to the region\u2019s business environment will outlast the fighting"},"yoast_head":"\nFitch turns bearish on global sovereigns \u2014 and the Middle East is taking the hardest hit - KSA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/06\/11\/fitch-turns-bearish-on-global-sovereigns-and-the-middle-east-is-taking-the-hardest-hit\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fitch turns bearish on global sovereigns \u2014 and the Middle East is taking the hardest hit\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The ratings agency\u2019s base case is for a partial strait 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