{"id":108994,"date":"2026-05-17T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=108994"},"modified":"2026-05-17T02:47:52","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T02:47:52","slug":"this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/","title":{"rendered":"THIS MORNING: >Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Good morning, wonderful people. <\/strong>Eyes will be on the sky tonight for Dhul Hijjah\u2019s crescent sighting, which will determine when pilgrims \u2014 over 850k of whom have already arrived in the Kingdom \u2014 will head to Mount Arafat. We can\u2019t wait for the festivities to begin (and of course, the long break).<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>In today\u2019s issue: <\/strong>Inflation cooled in April as costs of living proved resilient to war pressures, and one more Tadawul IPO is on the way from contractor Mutlaq Al Ghowairi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\"> Watch this space<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt1\"><\/a> <strong>ECONOMY \u2014<\/strong> <strong>Saudi <\/strong><strong>Arabia is proving to be the least affected <\/strong><strong>country in the Gulf<\/strong><strong> by the fallout from <\/strong><strong>the US-Iran war<\/strong>, IMF Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department Jihad Azour told <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.alarabiya.net\/aswaq\/exclusive\/2026\/05\/14\/%D8%B5%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86\" style=\"\">AlArabiya<\/a> during a visit to the region for consultations with leadership and central banks last week.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The East-West pipeline and the Kingdom\u2019s fiscal resilience absorbed the war-induced <\/strong><strong>economic shocks<\/strong>, Azour said. The pipeline <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/11\/aramco-net-income-jumps-in-1q-courtesy-of-the-east-west-pipeline\/\" style=\"\">helped<\/a> Saudi Arabia reroute more than 7 mn bbl \/ d at its maximum capacity reached in March, with some 2 mn bbl \/ d headed to refineries and 5 mn bbl \/ d for exports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>A boon for our oil revenues: <\/strong>The <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/16\/business\/energy-environment\/iran-war-oil-countries-winners-losers.html\" style=\"\">New York Times<\/a> estimates Saudi Arabia has gained about USD 9.2 bn in additional revenues amid global energy price hikes, from 28 Feb until 8 May. This comes despite a y-o-y drop in the numbers of barrels exported by 152 mn. Meanwhile, neighboring producers like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are having a harder time dealing with the strait\u2019s closure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>REMEMBER- <\/strong>The fund <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/15\/imf-trims-global-gdp-forecast-with-dispersed-war-scenarios\/\" style=\"\">projected Saudi\u2019s growth<\/a> to average 3.1% in 2026, 1.4 percentage points lower than the initial outlook in January, the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/15\/imf-trims-global-gdp-forecast-with-dispersed-war-scenarios\/\" style=\"\">last month<\/a>. However, growth is expected to pick up pace again to 4.5% in 2027.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Inflation also slowed down in April for the Kingdom to 1.7% y-o-y<\/strong>, Azour noted. We have more on that in today\u2019s big story, below.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">Sports<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"> <a id=\"wwtt2\"><\/a> <strong>PIF<\/strong><strong> becomes official World Cup supporter:<\/strong> The Public Investment Fund (PIF) has been named as the FIFA World Cup 2026 tournament supporter across North America and Asia, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pif.gov.sa\/en\/news-and-insights\/press-releases\/2026\/pif-named-as-official-tournament-supporter-of-fifa-world-cup-2026\/\" style=\"\">press release<\/a>. The partnership will see PIF alongside portfolio companies Savvy Games Group and Qiddiya City roll out fan engagement initiatives and tournament experiences.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The sports strategy:<\/strong> The commitment to the sports sector \u201clies within the tourism, leisure and entertainment ecosystem in PIF\u2019s recently announced <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/16\/this-morning-pifs-five-year-strategy-inches-closer-to-the-light\/\" style=\"\">2026-2030 strategy<\/a>,\u201d the statement said. The fund has recently been cleaning house and reorganizing its sports priorities, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/03\/pif-cuts-the-liv-golf-cord\/\" style=\"\">pulling the plug<\/a> on LIV Golf, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/30\/this-morning-pif-reviews-newcastles-infrastructure-plans-league-performance\/\" style=\"\">reviewing<\/a> Newcastle\u2019s plan, and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/04\/19\/kingdom-holding-snaps-up-70-of-al-hilal\/\" style=\"\">selling<\/a> a majority stake in Al Hilal Club Company. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>And in other sports news: <\/strong>Japan\u2019s Gamba Osaka bested Al Nassr 1-0 in the Asian Champions League Two final, preventing Cristiano Ronaldo from taking home the trophy, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/sports\/soccer\/hummet-strikes-gamba-deny-ronaldos-al-nassr-continental-silverware-2026-05-16\/\" style=\"\">Reuters<\/a> reports. The upset victory means that the Don is yet to clinch a major trophy since joining the club in 2023. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\"> Data point<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><a id=\"wwtt3\"><\/a> <strong>USD 12 bn<\/strong><strong> \u2014 that\u2019s the value of the Public Investment Fund\u2019s US equity <\/strong><strong>holdings in 1Q 2026<\/strong>, down from USD 12.95 bn in 4Q 2025, which marked their lowest level in five years, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.argaam.com\/en\/article\/articledetail\/id\/1906235\" style=\"\">Argaam<\/a> reported, citing US Securities and Exchange Commission <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sec.gov\/Archives\/edgar\/data\/1767640\/000101143826000338\/xslForm13F_X02\/primary_doc.xml\" style=\"\">data<\/a>. The fund maintained positions in Lucid Group, Electronic Arts, Uber, and Clarivate, while fully exiting medical technology manufacturer Allurion Technologies. <\/p>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-md-12 subscribe-box-panel\">\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"title\">\n<h4 class=\"fw-lighter mb-10\">   Get <b style=\"font-weight: 700\">Enterprise<\/b> daily   <\/h4>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"mb-10\">The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.<\/p>\n<p>  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"ksa\/en\/user\/NewsLetters\" class=\"btn-green px-3 d-flex align-items-center\">Subscribe here<\/a>  <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>***<\/strong><strong>You\u2019re reading EnterpriseAM Saudi<\/strong>, your essential daily roundup of business, economics, and must-read news about Saudi, delivered straight to your inbox. We\u2019re out Sunday through Thursday by 7am Riyadh time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>EnterpriseAM Saudi is available without charge <\/strong>thanks to the generous support of our friends at Tas\u2019heel and Hassan Allam Properties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Want to send us a story idea<\/strong>, request coverage, ask for a correction, or otherwise get in touch? Reach out to us on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"mailto:climate@enterprisemea.com\" style=\"\">saudi@enterpriseAM.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>DID YOU KNOW <\/strong>that we also cover <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/egypt\/en\" style=\"\">Egypt<\/a>, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/uae\/en\" style=\"\">the UAE<\/a>, the MENA <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/logistics\/en\" style=\"\">logistics<\/a> industry, and the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/mena-india\/en\" style=\"\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterprise.news\/mena-india\/en\" style=\"\">MENA <> India<\/a> corridor?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Were you forwarded this email? <\/strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/newsletters\/\" style=\"\">Tap or click here<\/a> to get your own copy of EnterpriseAM Saudi delivered every weekday.<br \/><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2026\/5\/791.jpg?ssl=1\"\/><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">In a market defined by geopolitical risk, inflation, currency volatility, and declining interest rates, knowing how to manage your money has never been more important, and yet few people are really good at it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">The default in Egypt has traditionally been to dollarize, buy real estate, or stash your extra cash in a high-yield certificate of deposit, but that playbook is dying.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">With an illiquid real estate market, the era of ultra high-yield deposits coming to an end, and a rapidly expanding ecosystem of digital investment options, investors are looking for new, smarter opportunities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">In this four-part series, <strong>EnterpriseAM Money Matters<\/strong> will walk you through smart personal finance decisions regardless of your age, income, or starting point.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/sub.ent.news\/eg\/\" style=\"\">Subscribe to our Egypt edition<\/a> and take the first step toward making your money work harder, delivered to your inbox soon.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<hr style=\"height:2px;border-width:0;color:gray;background-color:gray\">\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\">\n<p class=\"tag-border-left\">The big story abroad <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>The business pages are focusing on the outcomes of the US-China summit in Beijing<\/strong>, which proved anti-climactic after <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/trump-returns-china-with-stability-stalemate-2026-05-16\/\" style=\"\">failing to secure<\/a> any commitments. It appears that the world\u2019s two largest economies have returned to the familiar status quo that existed before President Donald Trump\u2019s so-called \u201cLiberation Day\u201d in 2025 \u2014 a shift some are already labeling a victory for China. Ultimately, the lack of a Trump-driven paradigm shift means a precarious trade standoff remains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>More drama from the Fed: <\/strong>Two Trump-nominated Federal Reserve officials have <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/9baac6fa-a302-4621-bc71-23a60e704703\" style=\"\">criticized<\/a> the Fed board\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/pressreleases\/other20260515a.htm\" style=\"\">decision<\/a> to temporarily keep Jerome Powell in the position of chair until Kevin Warsh is officially sworn in. Fed board members Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman slammed the \u201cunlimited timeframe\u201d of the temporary designation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Meanwhile, on Wall Street: <\/strong>Although the Big Tech and AI equity rally seems as strong as ever, there is a very big asterisk, investors tell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-05-16\/bond-selloff-threatens-to-knock-ai-stock-frenzy-off-course?srnd=homepage-middle-east\" style=\"\">Bloomberg<\/a>. Driven by optimism surrounding the AI boom, many investors are selling off government bonds, which is pushing yields higher. This spike in yields \u2014 combined with inflation risks and concentrated stock gains \u2014 could soon make corporate borrowing more expensive for tech companies while simultaneously making bonds a more attractive alternative to equities. <\/p>\n<p style=\"padding:0;margin:0;line-height:1.15;orphans:2;widows:2;text-align:left\"><strong>Speaking of which\u2026 could AI-related job cuts target entry-level jobs? <\/strong>Upwards of 40% of CEOs intend to slash junior roles and shift their workforce composition toward mid and senior-level roles, according to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oliverwymanforum.com\/ceo-agenda\/how-ceos-navigate-geopolitics-trade-technology-people.html\" style=\"\">global survey<\/a> by Oliver Wyman. This appears to stem from AI agents\u2019 ability to take on functions traditionally associated with junior positions, namely writing code and evaluating sales leads.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Good morning, wonderful people. Eyes will be on the sky tonight for Dhul Hijjah\u2019s crescent sighting, which will determine when pilgrims \u2014 over 850k of whom have already arrived in the Kingdom \u2014 will head to Mount Arafat. We can\u2019t wait for the festivities to begin (and of course, the long break). In today\u2019s issue: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108995,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2540],"tags":[10,337,9],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-108994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-what-were-tracking-today","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-imf","tag-what-were-tracking-today","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"ba133907-9285-4cc0-8924-c475f7d76dc4","order":"2","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"4","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/936.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF","related_issue":[108992],"teaser":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.1.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>THIS MORNING: &gt;Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF - KSA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"THIS MORNING: &gt;Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Good morning, wonderful people. Eyes will be on the sky tonight for Dhul Hijjah\u2019s crescent sighting, which will determine when pilgrims \u2014 over 850k of whom have already arrived in the Kingdom \u2014 will head to Mount Arafat. We can\u2019t wait for the festivities to begin (and of course, the long break). In today\u2019s issue: [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"KSA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-17T02:47:52+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/936.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"enterpriseam admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"enterpriseam admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#\/schema\/person\/ca597032db7e4db868359c123cec256d\"},\"headline\":\"THIS MORNING: >Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-17T00:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-05-17T02:47:52+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\"},\"wordCount\":1095,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/ent.news\/2025\/7\/936.jpg?fit=%2C&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"EnterpriseAM KSA\",\"IMF\",\"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TODAY\"],\"articleSection\":[\"WHAT WE\u2019RE TRACKING TODAY\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/17\/this-morning-saudi-economy-least-affected-in-gulf-by-us-iran-war-fallout-imf\/\",\"name\":\"THIS MORNING: >Saudi economy least affected in Gulf by US-Iran war fallout -IMF - 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