{"id":108938,"date":"2026-05-14T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/?p=108938"},"modified":"2026-05-14T03:37:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-14T03:37:35","slug":"the-feds-rate-cut-window-just-closed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/enterpriseam.com\/ksa\/2026\/05\/14\/the-feds-rate-cut-window-just-closed\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fed\u2019s rate-cut window just closed"},"content":{"rendered":"

The <\/strong>US consumer price index (CPI) (pdf)<\/a><\/strong> across the all items index climbed <\/strong>3.8%<\/strong>, up from 3.3% in March, with the core CPI for the \u201call items less food and energy\u201d index rising 2.8% over the last 12 months, up from 2.6% in March.<\/p>\n

The energy index accounts for only 40% of the monthly all-items increase <\/strong>\u2014 meaning the other 60% is now shelter, services, food, and tariff-sensitive categories. Energy surged 17.9% over the 12-month period. Shelter costs and tariff-sensitive apparel rose 0.6%, while airline fares accelerated 2.8% on the month, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%. Food at home prices increased 0.7%, the biggest monthly gain since August 2022.<\/p>\n

This rate increase has weighed on US consumer sentiment in recent weeks<\/strong>, as Americans grapple with an energy price shock that\u2019s rippling through the economy. Real wages dipped 0.5% on the month, marking the first time in three years that US wages have not outpaced inflation. \u201cFor consumers, that means the cost of living remains uncomfortable,\u201d economist Sung Won Sohn told CNN Business<\/a>. <\/p>\n

The Fed's rate-cut window just closed: <\/strong>The latest inflation reading sits at a longstanding crossroads for the Fed, following a four-dissent meeting held in late-April, the highest level of internal dissent since 1992. While incoming Chair Kevin Warsh has historically advocated for lower rates, and Governor Stephen Miran remains the lone voice favoring aggressive cuts, major investment banks have now begun pushing first-cut forecasts into 2027, with markets pricing a 30% chance of a hike by year-end.<\/p>\n

Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management Chris Zaccarelli warned that with the labor market holding up<\/strong>, it\u2019s very unlikely the Fed will be able to lower interest rates any time soon, and \u201cwe may start pricing in rate hikes for next year,\u201d CNBC<\/a> reports. <\/p>\n

The geographic scope of the April inflation report hit Egypt particularly hard<\/strong>, with credit spreads widening as regional risk aversion triggered capital outflows and heightened concern over short-term funding needs. As we have previously tracked<\/a>, Egypt\u2019s 5Y credit default swap widened by 110 bps from pre-war levels to hit its March peak of 344.7 bps.<\/p>\n

In the GCC, the USD peg means monetary policy is inherited from the Fed. <\/strong>While Aramco and Adnoc benefit from war-driven oil windfalls, the non-oil sector inherits a restrictive, high-rate environment from the Fed, constraining the non-oil credit cycle just as Vision 2030 and UAE industrial diversification deploy heavy capex.<\/p>\n

The K-shape runs inside the GCC too<\/strong> \u2014 and the Public Investment Fund cutting international allocations from 30% to 20% is the tell that the windfall is being routed home, not deployed outward as it was in 2024-25.<\/p>\n

While <\/strong>Aramco\u2019s CEO Amin Nasser<\/a><\/strong> recently <\/strong>warned that supply disruptions<\/a><\/strong> could persist until a 2027 normalization<\/strong> \u2014 estimating a loss of 100 mn barrels for each additional week the strait remains closed \u2014 the CPI reading suggests a more permanent shift. As we reported yesterday, producers view 2027 as a tactical recovery, but the inflation passthrough has already locked in higher costs. For regional importers, what began as a temporary war shock is now the structural reality for 2027 budgets.<\/p>\n

MARKETS THIS MORNING- <\/p>\n

Asian markets are up in early trading this morning<\/strong>, led by South Korea\u2019s Kospi and Japan\u2019s Nikkei. Asian stocks are mirroring gains seen across US tech equities over the past few days, which pushed major US indices to end yesterday in the green.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

TASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11,020<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2% (YTD: +5.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

MSCI Tadawul 30<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1,476<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: +6.4%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

NomuC<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

22,764<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1% (YTD: -2.3%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

USD : SAR (SAMA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Sell<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 3.75 Buy<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Interest rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

4.25% repo <\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3.75% reverse repo<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

EGX30 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

53,416<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.2% (YTD: +27.7%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

ADX<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9,705<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.1% (YTD: -2.9%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

DFM<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,759<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.4% (YTD: -4.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7,444<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +8.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

FTSE 100 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

10,325<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.6% (YTD: +4.0%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Euro Stoxx 50 <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

5,861<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

+0.9% (YTD: +1.1%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Brent crude <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 105.63<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.0%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Natural gas (Nymex)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 2.86<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.1%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Gold <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 4,697<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.2%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

BTC <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

USD 79,299<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-1.7% (YTD: -9.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

Sukuk\/bond market index<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

911.86<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-2.8% (YTD: -0.8%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

151.19<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

<\/use><\/svg><\/p>\n<\/td>\n\n

VIX (Volatility Index)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

17.87<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-0.7% (YTD: +19.5%)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-<\/p>\n

The TASI <\/strong>fell 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.6 bn. The index is up 5.1% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Sustained Infrastructure Holding (+8.7%), Alinma Retail REIT Fund (+4.7%), and Petro Rabigh (+4.6%).<\/p>\n

In the red: <\/strong>Wafrah for Industry and Development (-6.8%), Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed (-4.7%), and Saudia Dairy and Foodstuff (-3.5%).<\/p>\n

\n

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-<\/p>\n

The NomuC<\/strong> fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 15.3 mn. The index is down 2.3% YTD.<\/p>\n

In the green:<\/strong> Riyadh Steel (+9.5%), Ratio Speciality Company (+7.4%), and Al-Razi Medical (+6.5%).<\/p>\n

In the red:<\/strong> Taqat Mineral (-10.9%), Alqemam for Computer Systems (-9.9%), and Lana Medical (-9.7%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

April CPI triggered the temporary war-driven price shock into a structural regime change, forcing MENA treasuries to scrap 2026 rate-cut assumptions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"newspack_ads_suppress_ads":false,"newspack_popups_has_disabled_popups":false,"newspack_sponsor_sponsorship_scope":"","newspack_sponsor_native_byline_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_native_category_display":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_style":"inherit","newspack_sponsor_underwriter_placement":"inherit","ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_primary_brand":0,"newspack_featured_image_position":"","newspack_post_subtitle":"","newspack_article_summary_title":"Overview:","newspack_article_summary":"","newspack_hide_updated_date":false,"newspack_show_updated_date":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2565],"tags":[10,55,59],"brand":[],"newspack_spnsrs_tax":[],"class_list":["post-108938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-planet-finance","tag-enterpriseam-ksa","tag-financial-markets","tag-planet-finance","wpautop","entry"],"acf":{"mongo_id":"0a9babcf-fc57-48d4-9415-4c2a91439101","order":"11","is_powered_by":false,"story_type":"1","photo_url":"https:\/\/ent.news\/2026\/5\/795.jpg","photo_position":"above","homepage_title":"","full_issue_title":"No cuts, no cushion","related_issue":[108919],"teaser":"April CPI triggered the temporary war-driven price shock into a structural regime change, forcing MENA treasuries to scrap 2026 rate-cut assumptions"},"yoast_head":"\nThe Fed\u2019s rate-cut window just closed - 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